I was planning to write this when the news about Charlie Hayward's firing from the NYRA occurred, but I took briefly ill and had the Derby Weekend to deal with.

While I am sure there are other voices who have more weight and still others who remain strangely silent, I feel compelled to share a few thoughts.

As a horseplayer and as a columnist with license for commentary, It is absolutely appalling to see the treatment Mr. Hayward is getting from people who should know better, people who should know how much he has fought to improve the NYRA on many levels, how much improvement has occurred and how most policy decisions he has made--that I am aware of--have benefited NY racing, its participants on the track and in the grandstand.

You can see some of these improvements first hand in the play Charlie has given to Andy Serling on the NYRA website, inviting legit commentary by a professional horseplayer on the way races have been run and how they might be run--a feature that is far more adventurous in its nature and thorough in its content than any other racing organization or TV outlet has yet to attempt. This in a direct effort by the NYRA to inform its players of what is really going on.

The effort has played a role in improving the handle at NYRA tracks as well as helping to teach horseplayers what they really should know about the best gambling game man has ever invented.

Just visit Belmont and/or Saratoga and you will see Hayward's efforts to improve aspects the NYRA facilities, as well as the improved manner in which the racing fan is treated.

Go visit the Aqueduct-slots facility that was politically and inexcusably delayed for nine years despite legislative approval for the slot franchise by the NY State Legislature.

At the bottom line---from this vantage point---Charlie Hayward has been used as a target and/or scapegoat on more than one occasion during his tenure while various New York politicians----from state senators to assemblymen and different governors, including the present governor---have sought to capitalize on circumstances they have helped to create, including as stated above, the myriad ploys that led to the prolonged nine years of holding back implementation of the NYRA slot franchise.

Even the high powered allegations that led to sanctions on the NYRA a few years ago and held up the reinstallation of the NYRA as the governing franchise in NY racing, were seriously overblown and primarily used as tools in and out of the press, to advance political positions of legislators who in some cases subsequently went to jail for malfeasance while in office.

Far from the implication that something very serious had occurred to prompt the holier than thou investigation, the nuts and bolts of what was discovered boiled down to a variety of minor incidents that did not deserve an all out war against the NYRA or its key officials, including Mr. Hayward.

The current 'firing'--which really should have remained a suspension while a thorough and fair minded investigation would continue --is just another political manipulation orchestrated in part by Governor Cuomo with the willing cooperation of Steven Duncker, Chairman of the NYRA. This for reasons that go way beyond a fair minded inquiry into the particulars regarding an overcharge of takeout percentage that had slipped through the cracks of confusing directives.

The only relevant issue is this: Upon realizing what was going on, did Charlie Hayward act responsibly to address the matter?

If not, were there specific, conflicting reasons that prevented what we in hindsight could call "proper action"?

And, at the bottom line, is this 'firing' the proper answer to whatever occurred, or just not just another politically inspired attempt to short circuit proper review protocols?
From my perspective, it seems to parallel previous attempts to undermine the existing NYRA leadership for the veiled purpose of supplanting the NYRA via a Governor inspired control of the sport in NY.

The Governor or a new panel of close political appointees to the rescue?
Give me a break!

Frankly the current events in NY resemble in tone what we often see in California, with similar bad sub plots, similar counter productive wrangling for political high ground, similar righteous indignation by small self interested groups marked by an equal lack of fair minded handling of issues that could be better resolved by less politically motivated people--peoplewho claim they care about racing, but only care about their own selfish interests.While I do not see Charlie Hayward as a man without flaws, the investigation into this matter that has Charlie Hayward fighting for his professional life should be placed under a review by external authorities, rather than be the act of railroading a very good man who has been a great asset to the sport in NY.

Sincerely,

Steve Davidowitz
CEO-Editor in Chief www.GradeOneRacing.com
Steve@GradeOneRacing.com

The winner--- I'LL HAVE ANOTHER---certainly benefitted from the suicidal speed tactics employed by the supremely talented BODEMEISTER, who set torrid splits through the first three quarters and somehow managed to hold on well for second.

I personally had a day at the betting windows I would like to forget--- an important personal memory trick for a horseplayer to develop. Like a relief pitcher who blows a save in the ninth inning, you have to be able to turn the page after a brief review of any mistakes that might have been made. You need to be able to let it all go if you want to have any chance of pitching well the next day or winning money at the track when you come back.

Our new Weekend Handicapping Package, which was free last weekend for existing seasonal and yearly subscribers---as well as to those who purchased our special Derby Week and Derby Weekend packages---had a schizophrenic two days.

Friday-Oaks Day was terrific on many levels with many winners, including exactas and Trifectas and my sixth straight in six tries of a selected "vulnerable betting favorite" who went down to defeat as advertised.

Saturday-Derby Day was completely forgettable (even my vulnerable favorite Shackleford won in a terrific performance, his best since he won the Preakness last May.) But no race typified the upside down nature of the Derby Day card better than the wire to wire win scored by LITTLE MIKE in the $500,000 Turf Classic.

Somehow, Little Mike was able to cruise to a comfortable lead in the middle part of the drying out turf course after breaking from the rain drenched inside post!

 Why and how he was allowed to set uncontested fractions from there to the wire might be blamed on the riders aboard front running TURBO COMPRESSOR and GET STORMY, who were nowhere to be found.

Meanwhile, the stretch running threats in the race--- favored TURALLURE, DATA LINK and DOUBLES PARTNER--never launched a serious bid.

As most of us who appreciate the value of pace, the Derby outcome also was determined by the early fractions.

BODEMEISTER was tons the best, but  foolishly allowed to run as fast as he wanted to go, even to the extent that he outran the sprinter Trinniberg for the lead, a tactic that backfired in the final 1/16 mile of the 1-1/4 mile Derby.

Frankly, I was surprised that Mike Smith did not apply a minimum of rstraint to let the distance-challenged sprinter TRINNIBERG go to the front, knowing that he would tire on his own before he reached the far turn.

So with Bodemeister burning up valuable energy during the first half mile, I'll Have Another was the one who benefitted the most. He had one of the cleanest trips in the race, a tribute to the skill and nerve of his rookie rider, Mario Guiterrez and to the colt's tractability. But aside from Bodemeister, the most impressive performance I saw was that of WENT THE DAY WELL who had an adventurous trip and yet closed more than a dozen lengths in the final quarter to finish fourth, beaten less than three lengths.

DULLAHAN also was an interesting third place finisher, for a few reasons.

First he was my Exacta key in the pool 1 Derby Futures and only needed to run second to get me out-and then some-for the day. More importantly to Kenny Schmitt, who won our Breeders' Cup Handicapping contest last fall, Dullahan was his play for the $1000 win bet he had going in the Kentucky Derby at our expense.

I thought the Dale Romans' trainee ran well, considering all the talk that he might not like the dirt surface as much as the Keeneland Poly. A good pick Kenny!  Better luck to you next time.

CREATIVE CAUSE, rumored by some to be slightly off during Derby week, nevertheless ran a respectable fifth in the Derby. As the horse who finished only a nose behind I'll Have Another in the Santa Anita Derby last month, he just might be an interesting threat in the Preeakness should trainer Mike Harrington decide to take another shot.

I'll have more on the Preakness, of course and the site will be loaded with highly detailed info on all the Preakness horses as we move closer to that May 19 Classic at Pimlico next week. But if you are interested, I am posting a column that may be of some advance help later tonight on the www.drf.com  web site.( As many of you know, I write about two dozen columns a year for DRF.com and DRF's Simulcast Weekly.)

Our Performance Notes---compiled by Perry Gastis and co founder Peter Rinato---included many details not available in result charts, including specific lane biases and pace scenarios that have helped identify horses who really deserved a closer look.

Lauren Stich's Pedigree Analysis for the Oaks and Derby starters were typically outstanding---as her work usually is and will be as we move forward towards the spring and summer  debuts of thousands of 2 year olds in the New York, Kentucky and California racing markets.  If you do not pay attention to what she says about those youngsters, or her notes on "hidden turf sires" you are costing yourself money.  The same is true if you do not take a close look at the special notes put into our workout reports by Bruno DeJulio and Molly Jo Rosen from their clockings of hundreds of 2 year olds at the various sales around the country  throughout the year.

Our exclusive workout reports as usual were fantastic, If I may say so myself; but I really don't have to. . .Frankly, we received many compliments for their insights that helped many subscribers make fine plays all week.

This year, their Derby Week workout reports were complimented by daily video presentations that focused on the Derby and Oaks horses as they got familiar with the CD track. We loved these new additions, but at the same time, some subscribers did suggest that they would like to see Bruno's wrap-up analysis that summarizes what he and MollyJo are putting into our Derby pages for every horse every day.

It was all there---as Bruno stated in his Friday blog—and all our clockers in Kentucky, New York and California---worked tirelessly to provide the best workout coverage in the business for hundreds of horses who raced on Derby Weekend in Kentucky and SoCal. But we do listen to constructive criticism. Time and energy permitted, the wrap up report will be attempted next time.

Meanwhile our NY workout coverage,  absent during the winter, resumed as scheduled on April 5 and rapidly is getting up to full speed under the watchful eye of experienced clocker Ed Haney. During the coming summer, when Churchill Downs closes, Bruno and Molly Jo will go to Saratoga to provide intense coverage for that fantastic meet while Ed vcovers the horses training at Belmont who ship there and our California clockers continue to cover Del Mar.

As for other constructive critiques, some have complained that I have not written enough columns in the past few months, for which I apologize. Without going into excruciating detail, I have had to deal with some physical issues, most of which are behind me.

With all of that, let me here thank all of you for your great support for our Weekend Handicapping Package, our Derby Week and Derby Weekend Subscriptions as well as those who have snapped up our Yearly Packages.

OUR NEW SEASONAL AND MONTHLY SUBSCRIPTIONS. . .Let me also  remind everyone that we are introducing this week, a new SEASONAL SUBSCRIPTION that will begin upon sign up anytime in May and will cover all our information and racing at Belmont Park, Hollywood and Churchill Downs, plus every day of racing at the prestigious Saratoga and Del Mar meets---for one price, $299 for the four months plus several weeks that will end Sept. 7.

The seasonal subscription also will include a Free Entry Ticket to our annual Saratoga -Del Mar Handicapping Contest, in which lucrative prizes will be awarded as always. The Yearly package also  includes Free Entries to that contest and our Breeders' Cup contest as well.

ATTENTION CURRENT FOUR MONTH SUBSCRIBERS: . .Should you choose to extend your current four month subscription, you may sign up now and receive 120 extra days tacked on to your current subscription for a special discounted price of $259.

 In the future, all 120 day subscriptions will be priced at $299, the same price as the new Seasonal Subscription explained above. Moreover, no discounts on these subscriptions will be offered unless spelled out through our direct E-mails.

 PLEASE NOTE: OUR NEW MONTHLY SUBSCRIPTION PACKAGE INCLUDES SPECIAL PREAKNESS AND BELMONT STAKES COVERAGE! . .Beginning NOW we are restarting one month subscriptions at $99, with no discounts available unless specifically authorized by E-mail. This PREAKNESS-BELMONT SUBSCRIPTION will cover all our info now and through Preakness Weekend all the way through Belmont Stakes Weekend (more than four full weeks of coverage) and will include complimentary subscriptions to the Preakness Weekend Handicapping Package and the Belmont Stakes Weekend Handicapping Package.

In all other weeks, our Weekend Handicapping Package will be posted as a stand alone option priced at $19.99 per weekend. That pakcage actually is available for purchase THIS WEEKEND, the weekend between the Derby and Preakness.   

(Please Note: Daily Subscriptions at $14.95 will only be available after the Belmont Stakes.)

Going back to our SPECIAL PREAKNESS-BELMONT STAKES Subscription, (more than a full month) which is priced at $99,  this will include  FULL ACCESS TO ALL OUR EXCLUSIVE HANDICAPPING INFORMATION and our SPECIAL TREATMENT OF THE PREAKNESS AND BELMONT STAKES CONTENDERS, along with complimentary access to our Preakness and Belmont Stakes Weekend Handicapping Packages!

AFTER THE BELMONT STAKES, this subscription will revert back to a straight 30 day (MONTHLY) subscription, from date of sign up and will include a  FREE TICKET to a select handful of prize awards in our exciting handicapping contests, one of which just concluded on the Kentucky Derby. . .‘Charter Members' (those who joined us for free when the site opened on July 24, 2010)---also will will be granted free tickets to our contests, but Premium Prize Awards are to be reserved strictly for paid subscribers.

 In case you did not know, to this very date, we have offered nearly $80,000 in net prizes through our handicapping contests. Choose your subscription to get your piece of that booty in the future.

Repeating for clarity. . . Below are the subscription options for access to all our exclusive handicapping information, along with other lucrative benefits as described above:

* SPECIAL PREAKNESS-BELMONT STAKES (MONTHLY) SUBSCRIPTION @ $99. . .

(Will become a straight 30 day subscription after the Belmont Stakes)

* Seasonal-Summer Subscriptions @ $299.

(To run from now and/or date of signup through the complete Saratoga-Del Mar race meets!) 

* 120 Day Extensions of current Four Month subscriptions @ $259.

* 12-Calendar Month, Full Year Subscriptions @ $599.

* Weekend Handicapping Packages when offered---as they are this weekend, @$19.99. . .

Please Note: The "Weekend Handicapping Package" for Preakness and Belmont Stakes Weekends is included at no extra charge to Preakness-Belmont (Monthly) subscribers and to our Seasonal, Four Month  and Yearly Subscribers.

Daily Subscriptions will be avaiable after the Belmont Stakes, @ $14.95.

All the Best/Steve Davidowitz

CEO-Editor in Chief, www.GradeOneRacing.com 

E-Mail: Steve@GradeOneRacing.com  

The first of these is our DERBY WEEKEND SUBSCRIPTION PACKAGE.

This will cover two of the best racing cards of the year---the Kentucky Oaks card at Churchill Downs on Friday, May 4 and the Kentucky Derby at the same historic track on Saturday, May 5.

This Derby Weekend Package will include complete access to all our handicapping information including valuable insights you may use to pick winners at Hollywood Park and/or Aqueduct, but we know you will be looking to us to provide the kind of insightful workout reports for the Kentucky Derby that Bruno DeJulio and our team of expert workout analysts provided last spring.

That was when we thought that UNCLE MO did not look the part of the Derby favorite at all when he was training in Florida and that was when Bruno suggested about a week before the Derby that he did not look 100 percent healthy in his training moves at Churchill Downs.

In fact, Bruno said straight out that Uncle Mo “should be scratched.” several days before owner Mike Repole and trainer Todd Pletcher finally decided on the day before the race to get him out of the race and have him thoroughly examined by expert vets. A rare disease was found in his liver and it took four months for Uncle Mo to resume training.

Our Derby Week Reports last spring also pointed out that the highly fancied DIALED IN did not look impressive in his training moves either, while the 21-1 longshot ANIMAL KINGDOM gained Bruno's ‘Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval', for training like a monster who would have no trouble handling the Churchill Downs dirt oval. As you may recall, that was a key issue in Animal Kingdom's Derby starting status and his fitness was instrumental in his eventual upset victory in the 1-1/4 mile race!

In the aftermath of that result, we received dozens of notes from subscribers who said they profited substantially from that race as well as several others our information helped isolate on both days. These notes continued throughout the summer when we were all over the Del Mar race meet and into the fall at Keeneland and Churchill Downs when we were isolating live horses left and right through the Breeders' Cup and into this winter at Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park.

While we would be foolish to say that we are going to point out a 21-1 shot upset winner in this Kentucky Derby, we can assure every GradeOneRacing.com subscriber that we will have valuable insights into the way every Derby and Oaks horse is training, along with many more professional insights into the way many of the horses are likely to perform in the Kentucky Oaks as well as the long list of Churchill Downs' stakes, allowance and maiden races scheduled to be run on the Oaks and Derby Day cards.

Remember, we have world class pedigree expert Lauren Stich's up to date, powerful Pedigree Reports in our data base, along with hundreds of sensational Performance Notes that provide Track Bias info and pace scenarios that are not included in the official Result Charts, or Daily Racing Form past performances!

Perhaps you may have noticed that we have been updating and expanding our information for dozens upon dozens of Derby nominees on our special Kentucky Derby pages, in which all 418 Triple Crown nominees are listed. These pages also are included in the Derby Weekend Subscription Package as well as in all the subscriptions we offer.

Beyond these features, our Derby Weekend Package will include the latest Blogs by Bruno DeJulio from Churchill Downs as well as commentaries by Lauren and me, Steve Davidowitz, all in one special section we are devoting exclusively to the Derby and Oaks horses.

These commentaries, horse by horse, provide evaluations that go beyond the mere cataloguing of each horse's relative accomplishments.

To cap all this off, we are adding our newest feature-The Special Weekend Handicapping Report—which sells for $19.99---as a complimentary gift to all Derby Weekend subscribers!

As a matter of fact, if you want to get the Special Weekend Handicapping Report this weekend for the races on tap at Keeneland, Aqueduct and Santa Anita, Sat. April 21 and Sunday Apr. 22, you can subscribe to it for $19.99 any time this week; like right now, for instance, lol:).

The feature provides analysis of 2 major stakes on each day by me, Steve Davidowitz; Pedigree Plays by Lauren Stich; Fit and Ready workout stars provided by Bruno De Julio and our staff of clockers; Preferred Performer Plays by Perry Gastis and co-founder Peter Rinato. . .This Weekend Handicapping Package also includes something that I am quite found of—The Vulnerable Favorite of the Day!

Last weekend HANSEN was singled out as the Vulnerable Favorite on Saturday and on Sunday we saved people money by burying an even money shot at Aqueduct!. . .The price for the Weekend Handicapping Package is $19.99 when sold separately as it will be for this weekend, Apr. 21 and 22.

Remember, this new handicapping feature is included in the priceless Derby Weekend Package for $59.99.

Want more information?

Want to attack the closing weekend of Keeneland and the opening week of Churchill Downs?

Want to build up your Oaks-Derby bankroll while incorporating all our valuable handicapping info during Derby Week?

Our second new subscription package is the extended DERBY WEEK SUBSCRIPTION PACKAGE.

This Derby Week Package begins right now, or on signup and covers the rest of the Keeneland meet, as well as Churchill's opening Day, Apr 28 right on through Kentucky Derby weekend, May 4 and 5.

This subscription will include everything on our web site, including the daily blogs and columns during Derby week; the special Derby and Oaks contenders pages and all the excellent workout info we have been tapping into in southern California and Florida all winter and spring and now are beginning to provide for New York players too.

The Derby Week Package will include all the features of the Weekend Derby Package, as well as the new Weekend Handicapping Feature that will focus on Oaks Day-Friday and Derby Day-Saturday.

Again, just to be clear, this new, extended Derby Week Package can be purchased right now and includes all we have to offer for the rest of the Keeneland meet through Derby Day, May 5 plus complimentary access to the special Weekend Derby Handicapping Package.

At the bottom line, we are all over Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby for the next few weeks. But, make no mistake, we will continue to provide the same high level of coverage for Southern California as we also pick up the pace of our New York coverage as we head into the fantastic spring meet at Belmont Park, with Saratoga soon to follow.

Some of you are thinking ahead.

Some of you may prefer to sign up for our 12 month, full Calendar Year Subscription Package that begins on the day you sign up and automatically will include all the content of our Derby Week and Oaks-Derby Weekend packages as well as all the tracks we annually cover from coast to coast, including Saratoga and Del Mar right on through the Breeders' Cup into the first four months of 2013.

The price of this comprehensive 12 month-Yearly Subscription Package now is $599, which we believe is one of the best bargains in all of racing.

Consider: Other ‘clocking services' charge nearly $1000 for their yearly subscriptions and they only focus on SoCal races.

They do not provide any workout info on any other important track; they do not include any of our wide ranging pedigree information, or our special Preferred Performers pages that point out horses who raced with or against a noticeable Track Bias, or a severe pace issue.

They certainly do not include opinion columns by yours truly; or blogs and columns by Bruno DeJulio and workout analyst Molly Jo Rosen and our team of clockers who beyond SoCal, also cover Florida, Kentucky and NY. Nor do any other services provide Lauren Stich's highly prized, annual appraisal of Freshman Sires; or her spot on previews of major stakes for 2 year olds and the Triple Crown prep races. Nor do any other service offer the lucrative Handicapping Contests we provide our subscribers!

As a testimonial for what we offer consider this:

Michael Beychok, who won the $1 million first prize in this year's NTRA/DRF Final Handicapping Championship at Treasure Island in Las Vegas not only said he “could not have won the tournament without GradeOneRacing's handicapping information,” he further publicly stated that “aside from my tournament play, just for everyday use, a full subscription to GradeOne Racing could easily be worth several thousand dollars a year.”

We are not charging several thousands of dollars for what we offer.

We are in fact much cheaper than we should be, because we want horseplayers to have access to what we provide. Moreover, as stated, every yearly subscription also includes FREE TICKETS to our very lucrative Handicapping Contests that annually offer thousands of dollars in free wagers on major stakes races as well as fantastic trips.

Consider:

* Last year's Breeders' Cup Handicapping Contest winner is presently planning his trip for two to the 2012 Kentucky Derby at our expense that includes $1000 in tickets and seats to the Oaks and Derby; $1000 in hotel accommodations and an $800 travel allowance, plus a $500 Betting Voucher to be wagered on his selection in the Kentucky Oaks and a $1000 betting voucher to be bet on his pick in the Kentucky Derby!

* The previous winner of our Fantasy Contest on the 2011 Kentucky Derby (which is in progress now for the 2012 Derby,) won a $1000 entry fee to the $650,000 Horseplayer's World Series at the Orleans in Las Vegas, plus a $500 Win- $500 Place bet on the 2011 Belmont Stakes and promptly turned that free bet into a tidy $19,000 score!

Again, our Yearly Subscription includes FREE TICKETS into similar Handicapping Contests as a signing bonus for all the practical handicapping information we provide at the most important racetracks in America.

There is one more note I feel obliged to make.

It costs many thousands of dollars to do this web site and put top class professionals on the scene to provide all of our subscribers with the high quality info you find here every day. This is and has been a start up business that is intended to make a profit for those who have invested serious money to make a go of it. We wish we could offer all of the info we provide for free. That certainly would be nice and for the first four months of our existence we did. We charged nothing, nada, not one thin dime.

For the next 16 months we set our prices way, way below market value. As stated above, what we offer continues to be a significant value on its own merits and in comparison to all other handicapping services on the world wide web or anywhere else.

We are hard at work here and all of us at GradeOneRacing.com appreciate your support and look forward to providing more of the good stuff while building upon our great relationship.

All the Best,

Steve Davidowitz

CEO-Editor in /Chief, www.GradeOneRacing.com

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Perhaps you have noticed, but we've made several important improvements to the Web Site in recent weeks with more to come as we move forward on the Triple Crown Chase. For one thing, we have added features and friendly tabs to the relatively new Triple Crown Pages, pages that I strongly recommend subscribers to examine closely.  

 * These Triple Crown pages not only contain a complete list of the 398 Nominees to the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes, but any time a horse runs or records a meaningful workout at the tracks we are covering, we automatically update the info. Included of course are our insights into the horse's pedigree power; its performances in actual races and the latest workout info. More than that, we also have links to all the previous horses the the horse you are looking at has raced againast and additional  links to the actual Equibase Result Charts.

 * To access this extraordinary amount of relevant info—which as I said, will be updated automatically virtually every day--- just click on the name of the horse (listed alphabetically). All the info we have on any given horse will pop up on your computer screen. That is true for ALL the nominated horses on the list.

 As of this date, a full two months before the Kentucky Derby, we already have info on more than 200 of this year's Triple Crown nominees, with more to come.

 *The Triple Crown Tracking section also will include separate listings for the horses named in Churchill Downs' Derby and Oaks Futures Pool #2 that were both available for future book waging purposes on Mar 2 through Mar 4.  In a few weeks, we will post Pool #3 horses for the Derby. (There is no other Futures pool scheduled by Churchill for the Oaks.)

 * Within a few days, a complete Graded Stakes racing schedule for 3 year olds will be included in this section and also will be included in conjunction with the Derby Fantasy Contest now in progress elsewhere on the site.

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DERBY FANTASY CONTEST UPDATE

 * Our lucrative Derby Fantasy Handicapping Contest is off and running with several hundred subscribers. Entries closed on Feb. 29 and points were already tabulated for the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct last Saturday. More points will be up for grabs whenever a Graded Stakes for 3 year olds is run---every weekend from now to the Derby itself, on May 5, 2012.

 * Please read ALL the rules carefully to appreciate how we score points and what players must do to remain in contention for our valuable list of prize awards.

You probably will find the Triple Crown nominee list cited above as most helpful when you are thinking about making changes to your active roster on the two specified exchange dates spelled out in the rules.

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OUR GUEST COLUMNIST SERIES CONTINUES

 * Our first two Guest Columnists—Michael Beychok and Keith Chamblin—addressed issues related to the National Handicapping Championship sponsored by The NTRA and DRF. Beychok, of course won the $1 million first prize with great handicapping while using www.GradeOneRacing.com's invaluable workout reports and other handicapping info. Naturally, his column passed along some of the ideas he used to win the tourney. Michael will be back later in the series to write another handicapping column.

 * Chamblin's column was an informative, serious treatise on what changes the NTRA is contemplating for the 2012 'Tourney' that runs all year as well as the NHC Finals to be held again at the Treasure Island Hotel and Casino on the Las Vegas strip next January. While I agree with many of Chamblin's proposed changes, I did add a personal critique on some of them at the bottom of his column---as did subscriber Clem, who had additional criticisms to share with Chamblin. Both critiques were sent directly to Chamblin's E-mail account and of course, further commentary is welcome.

 * This week's guest column will be written by Steve Byk, the popular host of ‘At the Races with Steve Byk,' that plays each weekday morning on Sirus and XM Satellite radio. A link to that broadcast is available on our News and Resources page.  (I usually appear on that show for 30 minutes each Wednesday at 8:00 AM Eastern time.) There is no better broadcast forum for racing news and commentary on the Internet or on the radio dial.

 Future Guest Columnists will include Barry Irwin, owner of ANIMAL KINGDOM and the man behind Team Valor Stable; Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert (who requested that he be rescheduled to next month), NYRA's CEO Charlie Hayward; Santa Anita Park's Director of Racing Rick Hammerle and other key officials and prominent commentators.

If you would like to hear the thoughts and ideas of someone in the game, please do not hesitate to suggest them at the bottom of this commentary.

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 IMPROVEMENTS TO OUR PREFERRED PERFORMERS SECTION

 * As of March 4, our talented webmaster, Travis Magee has helped us streamline and greatly improve our exclusive Preferred Performers section.

Now you can choose to print out a single track for a single day's Preferred Performers List, rather than have to print all our Preferred Performers all at once.  Similarly we have streamlined the race condition headings for our entry pages to save printing ink and paper.

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* We expect to reintroduce NY based workouts in two weeks, pending the continuation of relatively mild winter weather in the Northeast. We were thinking of going to the Fair Grounds for the last month of their racing season, but believe the resumption of NY works will prove more meaningful to our subscribers.

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AN IMPORTANT NOTE FROM ALL OF US AT GRADEONERACING.COM.

* We are actively seeking serious investors from the racing and business world who are interested in helping www.GradeOneRacing.com move forward to the next logical level of our development.

We are proud of what you see here on this web site and we are gratified by the support so many have given. But we have barely scratched the surface of the site we believe we can and should become.

We have a full blown prospectus/proposal to share with serious potential investors and we are also offering a 10 percent finder's fee to anyone who can introduce us to any actual investors.

Shares in the company will be offered in $50,000 units up to and including 20 such shares, or $1 million.

At present evaluations, a fully invested $1 million would buy about 42 percent of the proposed expanded version of GradeOneRacing we are seeking to create.

Among the features that would be a part of the new version would be Live Money Handicapping Contests modeled in part after the way the poker world has run their popular on line tourneys, as well as several more tracks for workout coverage and other features that subscribers have told us they would love to see.

For specific confidential information, please E-mail me directly: Steve@GradeOneRacing.com

Thanks and All the Best!

Steve Davidowitz

CEO-Editor-in-Chief: www.GradeOneRacing.com  

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While Beychok definitely needed to make a sharp last play on the 3-1 winner in the final race of the two day competition to narrowly edge Illinois based David Flanzbaum (by a measly $1-dollar), Beychok stated unequivocally:

“Steve, I just want you to know that I could not have won this tournament without your great workout reports and the other terrific information on your site.”

 “No doubt about, it” he continued, “ I could not have done this without GradeOneRacing.com. ”

Interestingly, first day leader NOEL WHITE, a relative newcomer to the handicapping world, with only one year previous experience, said directly to me in front of a table filled with other tournament players after he moved to the top of the leader board on Friday, Jan 27, “I'm a subscriber to your web site and could not have done anywhere near this well without GradeOneRacing's information.”

Those were two powerful endorsements for the quality of this web site. And, if you include my 29th place finish in the 'official' field of 482 finalists, there were at least three of us who earned cash awards using the information supplied by Bruno DeJulio and his clocking staff in Florida and California; Lauren Stich, our world class pedigree expert, and by our sharp Performance Note commentators, including co-founder Peter Rinato and Perry Gastis, who was our Florida based clocker last year, but has found “a job he “was born to do.”

Ironically, as I looked at my own performance in this, the richest handicapping tournament in the world, I had to conclude that the first day leader and the eventual first prize winner used our exclusive handicapping information somewhat better than I did; lol:)

All laughing aside, that singular fact actually makes a salient point about handicapping tournaments as well as effective wagering on horses in general.

Great information is important, but the secret to big tournament scores and profitable betting seasons is to use the best information you can find in the most creative and insightful ways.

In my own case, I failed to use the good workout report on the first mandatory play in the third race at Gulfstream Park on Friday. I liked that particular horse (FREDDY THE CAP) and one other in the race J.J.'S PROPHET, based on other factors. I went one way and Freddy The Cap went to the the winner's circle at limit payoff odds, propelling about two dozen contest players into a much better position than I would ever get to reach.

Not having that limit $42 win and $22 place payoff in my contest bankroll also forced me to play only horses who were going to the post at a minimum of 8-1 odds, up from my pre tournament minimum of 6-1.  And one might expect, during the tourney there were four horses that I told my table that I liked a lot who were below my minimum odds and all four won, including two who hovered around 6-1, never higher.

A few races after failing to take Freddy The Cap in the contest, with my equilibrium restored, I did hit a limit winner, MELROSE WOODS, a first time starter trained by veteran horseman Dan Hendricks in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden race. The appeal of this horse was told in the best workout report by far on our site for any horse in that race---a race that lacked any potential stakes types.

The horse scored with a game rally at 45-1 and added a limit $64 to my total. This along with two more winners lifted my first day total to $101.80 and a tie for 25th place. Interestingly, my day-one total almost equaled the $106 scored by the eventual winner, Michael Beychok. But his second day of play was historic, if not quite as electrifying as the one posted on the scoreboard by day two leader- David Flanzbaum.

By contrast, my day two performance was just frustrating and somewhat anti climatic.

Believe me, I tried hard to get to the top of the leader board.  While I had the usual tough beats most losers complain about (a nose beat at 27-1), as well as a pair of close third place finishes at big prices that would have---could have---added $22 in place money for each, plus  one more third place finisher at huge odds who was bothered enough in his race that most people—but not all—thought he deserved to be promoted to second via a DQ. But there was no DQ; no second place limit payoff and very little hope left after that to win this thing with my three remaining optional plays.

All of this kept me pegged between 18th and 36th place throughout the tourney, which increased my frustration. Yet, when all was done, some good friends sought to congratulate me for my 29th place finish, while pointing out that this year-long tourney started with more than 30,000 participants in qualifying contests throughout the year and sifted down to the 482 finalists who came from all over North America with every intention to do what Beychok did. Peter Rinato in particlar  said:  “anyone who finished in the top 50 gets paid. That's not only pretty good, but a “29th placing was good enough to be among the top six percent who made it to the finals and the top 1/1000 percentile of all who tried to get here.”

Still, I left the contest ballroom at the Treasure Island Hotel and Casino, a bit depressed.

I am not one who celebrates modest money rewards for serious handicapping efforts. I usually go for big scores and do not think breaking even, or making a modest profit is anything to brag about, even to myself, when the opportunity clearly existed to hit a home run.  

At the same time, whenever I thought of Beychok's words to me, whenever I saw in my mind's eye, Michael Beychok getting up from his table of friends and family specifically to walk over towards me to tell me that “I really could not have won this tournament without GradeOneRacing,” I felt more than a smile knock my minor depression for a loop.

Right this very second, as I relive the moment, I feel exactly that way.

Sure, Beychok, had other winners during the two day competition and did nail the last race with a 3-1 shot that pushed him to his narrow, dramatic victory over Flanzbaum, who earned his $150,000 check. But, as I realistically digest what happened, a sense of pride makes me smile.

Think about it: The man who won this tough, very rich tournament, did so with no small amount of help from the information my team worked so hard to put together. Not only was Michael a loyal subscriber who originally qualified for the finals on the TwinSpires.com web site using GradeOneRacing handicapping info, he capped things offwith a record breaking $1 Million score while perusing the practical handicapping insights we put into this web site every day.

Think about it: Beychok used the info on this very young, ground breaking website that was born in July 2010, a website that already offers  some of the most insightful handicapping information every published, a site we are not yet at the level of quality and sophistication we intend to reach.

At the bottom line, Beychok's endorsement means a lot to me personally as well as to everyone here. To help in any way someone with great skill win the richest first prize in handicapping contest history, is not a bad an endorsement; not too bad at all. . . Congratulations Michael Beychok; well done; well done indeed!

Oh, there I go again; I feel a smile coming on.

 -------------------------------------------#30# ---------------------------- ----------------------------------

 Important Added Note: Michael Beychok is being interviewed Tuesday and Thursday morning by Steve Byk on the popular Sirus- XM radio satellite show: ‘AT THE RACES WITH STEVE BYK', which is simulcast on the Internet. (I'll also be doing my regular spot at 11:00AM EST, Wednesday on Steve's show.)  

Tune in to XM 209 and/or check out the archives for either or both broadcasts.

At the Races with Steve Byk is the best and most popular radio show on horseracing in the world. . .Here's a link to the broadcast: http://www.thoroughbredracingradionetwork.com/

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Along with Jimmy Cannon of the New York Post and Charles Hatton of Daily Racing Form, Smith was a personal favorite. So, here I was at Pimlico meeting him for the first time---in the men's room. We were not shaking hands. That would not have been appropriate as we stood side by side, doing what men do in the privacy of a men's room.

Even so, I could not resist the opportunity to say. . .“Mr. Smith, I just want to tell you how much I enjoy your work. I've been reading you for years." To which the great writer replied with a simple, polite “thank you,” while we both continued doing what men do in men's rooms.

I continued: “I also want to say how much I enjoy that annual column you do, the one when you predict—tongue in cheek- what's going to happen in sport each month. That is a great, great column,” I said.

 “Well, that's very nice of you to say young man,” “ he replied with a wry smile. “But, I do have to tell you that's not my column you're talking about, that's Arthur Daley's!”

So went the most embarrassing moment of my writing career. . .and the following January, I decided to borrow Arthur Daley's approach to the world of sport, along with the first telling of this story.

What follows below is my first such crystal ball essay-column since I stopped doing them for Horseplayer Magazine eight years ago. That's another story, one I will skip for now. Here's what is guaranteed to happen in horse racing in 2012 along with a few other sure fire predictions.

JANUARY. . .The NYRA finds out that it has been overcharging for hot dogs and beer by 18 percent due to “computer error” and  a track official  says they will try to hunt down as many who paid for them and give each .36 cents to compensate. “We'll also lower the cost of both by 20 cents for the next week,” he adds after the NY Racing and Wagering Board threatens to open hearings on the NYRA's ability to run the franchise. When asked why the NYRA does not lower takeout rates while the money is pouring in from the newly operational slot machines, the offical says lower takeout rates are something “we will get to in the future.” Exactly when nobody seems to know. . .2011 Kentucky Derby winner ANIMAL KINGDOM works a half mile in 49-2/5 and the work is given 12 inches of column space in Daily Racing Form. . .Gulfstream Park, in the second month of its moderately successful, extra long meet, reverses a previous decision to forbid credentialed media regular access to clock horses at the Palm Meadows training facility: The move, OK'd by Frank Stronach and Gulfstream's General Manager Tim Ritvo, is a major breakthrough for www.GradeOneRacing.com and reverses the notion that “It's the trainer's private pinball machine and it's our job to protect their interests.” For once the betting public gets a genuine break.

 FEBRUARY. . . Steve Asmussen's SABERCAT wins the Le Comte at the Fair Grounds, while one of the 16 Derby prospects in Todd Pletcher's barn and one of the 12 trained by Nick Zito each win Derby preps at Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs and Bob Baffert trained sophomores run 1-2-3 in The San Vicente at Santa Anita. . . The Thoroughbred Owners of California hire Jerry Jam‘GOTCHA' as their public relations officer on the theory that this is the only way to shut  him up. . .Eclipse Award winning Jockey Ramon Dominquez wins the first five races at Aqueduct but the track immediately closes for three days due to a severe snowstorm. The slots however remain open and handle several millions of dollars. . .RAPID REDUX wins his 25th consecutive race over $5,000 starter allowance company as PARX, Charles Town and Mountaineer Park rewrite the conditions of their starter allowance races to permit horses “who have started for $5,000 or less since God left Chicago.”

MARCH. . .Churchill Downs offers Future Book Trifecta wagering on the 2012 Kentucky Derby, but sticks to the 23 horse limit for its Future Book Win pool saying it “lacks the technology” to offer Futures play on the 355 Derby nominees. . .  . .THE FACTOR wins the $2 million Dubai Golden Shaheen stakes at 6 furlongs for Baffert and Billy Mott's 4 year old filly ROYAL DELTA finishes a gallant third to Japanese and South African turf horses in the $10 million Dubai World Cup on Meydan's Tapeta surface to complete a strong World Cup showing for American Hall of Fame trainers.   Eclipse Award winner HANSEN  wins the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park and is the pro tem Kentucky Derby favorite.

APRIL. . . The talented UNION RAGS wins the Florida Derby for Michael Matz and a dozen stories are written comparing him to the ill fated, Matz trained BARBARO. . .The Dale Romans trained DULLAHAN, winless since scoring as a maiden in the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last Oct., wins the Blue Grass Stakes on the Keeneland Polytrack and has an important workout at Churchill Downs to test whether he can handle dirt well enough to run in the Derby or wait for stakes on turf and/or synthetic surfaces. . . CREATIVE CAUSE  wins the Santa Anita Derby and Bob Baffert ships in LIAISON to win the 1-1/8 mile Wood Memorial. . .Both are now looked upon as the top two horses in the Kentucky Derby and even though they are both western based, the Derby bound media quickly jumps on promoting a battle between the Eastern winner  vs. the Western winner for the 20th time in the last 22 years. . .Taking a page from Gulfstream and their own list of anti-player decisions, the California Horse Racing Board approves a new raise in the pari mutual takeout rate---to 28.33 percent for the Pick Six. While Jerry Jam'GOTCHA' is busy trying to find his yellow crayon and fix a broken laptop, the CHRB explains: “The move will boost purses and bring more horses into our pick six races. After all,” he continues, “we have to compete with baseball which is starting up again.”

MAY. . .Speaking of baseball, the downtrodden, much maligned New York Mets win 14 home games in a row because 3rd baseman David Wright, left fielder Jason Bay and the returning 1st baseman Ike Davis actually can reach the stands this year. This after financially beleaguered owner Fred Wilpon finally listened to popular demand and brought in the fences a dozen feet. Racing should take note: At least their management listened to their fans. . .KILLER GRACES,  a daughter of Empire Maker wins the Kentucky Oaks and the next day, the Baffert trained SKY KINGDOM, a son of Empire Maker wins the Kentucky Derby, while two other late developing sons of Empire Maker finish second and third to give that sire the first ever sweep of America's most famous race. . .Two weeks later, Todd Pletcher fills a hole in his amazing resume, winning the Preakness for the first time with GEMOLOGIST over the John Sheppard trained EVER SO LUCKY to repeat their 1-2 finish in the 2011 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at CD last Nov.

JUNE. . . The Aidan O'Brien trained WROTE, winner of the 2011 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf ships in from Ireland to win the Belmont Stakes for Michael Tabor and his American based partner Mrs.John Magnier.  . .ANIMAL KINGDOM works five furlongs in 1:02 breezing under the watchful eye of trainer Graham Motion and DRF puts Motion's comment on the front page. “He's coming around now,” Motion says. “Might be ready to race next month.”

JULY. . .A first time starter trained by Todd Pletcher wins a Saratoga maiden sprint in 1:09 flat and immediately is compared to SEATTLE SLEW by the New York press corp. . .A few days later, 3,000 miles away, a Bob Baffert trained first timer wins a 6 furlong sprint in 1:08.88 at Del Mar and is compared to SILVER CHARM by a free lancer for Todays Racing Digest. . .ANMAL KINGDOM works five furlongs in 1:01-2/5 and DRF devotes two pages to the story. “He's getting closer,” says a Team Valor groom. “If things go well, we might make the Woodward at Saratoga.”  . A record crowd of 71,033  shows up on the first  Saturday of the Saratoga meet, but 48,000 actually were the same 12,000 spinning four times through the turnstiles to get tee shirts that cost the NYRA $1.72 apiece. A few days later the shirts are going for $12.50 on EBay.

AUGUST. . . The Champion mare, HAVRE DE GRACE, wins her third in a row, but loses the 1-1/4 mile Delaware Handicap to her arch rival BLIND LUCK, who comes out of retirement to show she'll forever be a nose better at that classic distance no matter when they meet. . .Frank Stronach, the successful Canadian industrialist, successful breeding farm owner and controversial owner of Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park announces that he is going to run all year round in Florida and will try to do the same in Southern California. “It's a free country, with free enterprise." says Stronach with his usual impeccable logic. “If I want to run 320 days a year at my tracks, why should anybody have a right to say I cannot do that?”. . . WISE DAN, expertly trained by underrated Charles Lopresti takes his show on the road again to win the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. Meanwhile at Saratoga, MY MISS AURELIA and WEEMISSFRANKIE dead heat in the historic Alabama stakes. One week later, GEMOLOGIST and SKY KINGDOM dead heat in the Travers. Both of these extraordinary races inspire ESPN to devote 11 seconds of their two hour Sports Center at midnight on Sunday, Aug. 26 to discuss these two historic races.

SEPTEMBER. . . ANIMAL KINGDOM works 3 furlongs in 37 breezing at Graham Motion's Fair Hill training center in Maryland. This is followed six days later by four furlongs in 48 flat and the two combined works incite the familiar media buzz over the 2011 Derby winner. . .STAY THIRSTY, back on his favorite track, wins the Woodward for his only win of the year and his fourth at Saratoga in five career attempts. Two days later, Stay Thirsty is retired, foregoing likely starts in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and/or the Breeders' Cup Classic. “He's done enough now,” says the man who orchestrated a stud deal for $22 million.

OCTOBER. . .An apprentice jockey at Churchill Downs gets taken down for a racing infraction and is given a seven day suspension. Taking the advice of more experienced riders, the apprentice appeals the ruling in a Louisville court and never spends a day on the sidelines through the end of the year. Speaking of jockeys, retired Patrick Valenzuela and Julie Krone agree to a promotional match race at Hollywood. When Krone's horse wins she decides to make a formal comeback, while PVal wisely heeds the advice of his agent and friend Tom Knust and stays clean and out of the saddle. . . .In baseball, neither Albert Puljos, nor Prince Fielder hit 40 home runs for their new teams in the first year of their extremely expensive contracts as the Los Angeles Dodgers, managed by ex Yankee Don Mattingly and now owned by former Yankee manager Joe Torre,  defeat the Yankees in the World Series. Knowledgable Yankee fans appaud the outcome.

NOVEMBER. . .The Breeders' Cup, back at Santa Anita for the third time in five  years, (with a dirt racing surface in play this time around) is dominated by 3 year olds in virtually every race where 3 year olds are eligible, except for the BC Classic which is won by--you guessed it, ANIMAL KINGDOM! “He worked really well for this race, says Bruno DeJulio, Chief Clocker for www.GradeOneRacing.com . . .In an equally remarkable  comeback, Barack Obama is reelected President of the United States when E-mail exchanges between Republican Congressmen and Wall Street market managers surface that clearly state: “Yes it's true, Obama actually rescued our sinking economy with emergency measures in 2009 so, the strategy we have to use to beat him in 2012 should focus strictly on criticizing everything he does, no matter what he does.”

DECEMBER. . . Alex Waldrop, the highly paid Chief of the National Thoroughbred Racing Association says in his monthly blog to the industry and fans: “There are no problems in the racing industry that we cannot solve, all we need to do is appoint a Blue Ribbon Committee to determine how many Blue Ribbon Committees we need to figure out what we should do with all the recommendations made by previous Blue Ribbon Committees.” Aside from that momentous announcement and a few good Grade-1 races at Hollywood Park and Aqueduct, nothing else of real importance will happen after the Breeders' Cup, not even the end of the world as the Mayans said would occur.

                                                                  Happy New Year!

 In 2009, I received more than 300 such votes at Davidwtz@Aol.com which in my personal poll gave a slight edge to undefeated Breeders' Cup Classic winner ZENYATTA over RACHEL ALEXANDRA, even though the actual vote conducted amongst racing officials and credentialed racing writers went the other way.

 In 2010, a similar number of fans voted for Zenyatta over BLAME through my current E-mail, Steve@GradeOneRacing.com , even though Blame narrowly handed the great mare her only career defeat in the Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs.

 This year, I personally do not believe there is a legitimate Horse of the Year, simply because there was no horse who convingingly demonstrated that he or she was even the second or third best in the land, never mind the best horse.

 Nevertheless, I will abide by the votes received, unless the one disclaimer I use to nullify your collective votes comes into play.

 Should no horse receive a minimum of 20 votes, I will leave my Horse of the Year selection on my official ballot absolutely blank. Twenty or more votes is my minimum requirement and I would bet serious money that no horse will achieve that total in my personal poll.

 Who can anyone really vote for with anything close to the passion we saw in the 2009 and 2010 Horse of the Year balloting. Frankly, I have been conducting this personal poll since 2002 and never have I seen such an unconvincing group of Horse of the Year candidates.

 For what it may be worth here is the rest of my unofficial ballot, which should not change given that there are no meaningful races left this year that could impact any category.

Older Males. . . .. . TIZWAY; GAME ON DUDE; ACCLAMATION.

He was the fastest older horse in training who only raced twice, but both were important Grade-1 wins. Game On Dude  might have not only won this category but been a cinch Horse of the Year if he had lasted to beat DROSSELMEYER in the BC Classic. But he didn';t last and that threw him back into the pack. . .Acclamation had a very good year winning on turf and synthetic.

Older Females. . . .HAVE DE GRACE; BLIND LUCK; ULTRA BLEND.

Havre de Grace was consistent, did defeat the decent male FLAT OUT in the Woodward. Blind Luck might actually have been a better filly, but she lost out by losing her form late in the year and going to the sidelines before she could recover that form.

Turf Males. . . . .. . .CAPE BLANCO; ACCLAMATION; ST NICOLAS ABBEY.

A very close call with me, given that Cape Blanco won three Grade-1 turf stakes, but Acclamation was consistent and clearly best in the west, while St. Nicolas Abbey did win the BC Turf in impressive style, but that was not quite enough---for me.

Turf Females. . .. . STACELITA; SARAH LYNX; PERFECT SHIRL

Another close call amongst the multiple G-1 winner; the winner of the Canadian International and the surprise winner of the BC Filly and Mare turf.

2 Year Old Males. . HANSEN; UNION RAGS; CREATIVE CAUSE.

While these were the 1-2-3 finishers in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, some have argued that Union Rags deserves the edge because he lost a lot of ground during that 1-1/16 mile race. That may be so, but Union Rags had the length of the stretch to pass Hansen and could not do so. He also was in the best running lanes while Hansen was the only BC winner in two days to go wire to wire and he was on the inside, which were not as fast as the outside lanes at Churchill. Hansen deserves this title.

 Besides all of that, I personally do not expect either one of these juveniles to be among the top Kentucky Derby prospects as we move forward into 2012. There are so many potential threats who have shown flashes in limited startsd that our annual KENTUCKY DERBY FANTASY CONTEST will be a wild and woolly one, when we begin to deal with that in mid February.

 2 Year Old Fillies. . .MY MISS AURELIA; GRACE HALL; WEEMISFRANKIE

The 1-2-3 finishers in the BC Juvenile Fillies and there should be little debate over their respective pecking order over a good crop of young fillies.

Sprinter. . . . . . . . . AMAZOMBIE; CALEB'S POSSE; JACKSON BEND.

The Breeders' Cup Sprint winner deserves this call over the BC Dirt Mile winner.

3 Year Old Males. . .SHACKLEFORD; ANIMAL KINGDOM; STAY THIRSTY.

The Preakness winner had other good races and I think he deserves a slight edge over the Kentucky Derby and Travers winners, and the one turn specialist, CALEB'S POSSE

In a wild year, in which all three Triple Crown races and all other Grade-1 route stakes were won by others who shared center stage; including STAY THIRSTY who won the Travers; and the aforemntioned one turn specialist CALEB'S POSSE won the 7 furlong King's Bishop and the BC Dirt Mile, I am quite sure that my selection—SHACKLEFORD--- will not win the vote. Yet, I will cast a lukewarm, marginal preference for him anyway because he won an important Spring Classic while defeating the Kentucky Derby winner and he maintained his generally good form throughout an aggressive, taxing campaign. Almost paralleling the wide open Horse of the Year vote, there was no real Champion 3 year old of 2011.

3 Year Old Fillies. . . .ROYAL DELTA; IT'S TRICKY; PLUM PRETTY.

This filly--who won the alabama and the BC Ladies Classic, was expertly developed and trained by Hall of Famer Billy Mott and  should be a runaway winner of this division.

Top Trainer. . .. . . . . BILLY MOTT; DALE ROMANS; GRAHAM MOTION.

All three had great years with many fewer horses than Todd Pletcher and Steve Asmussen, who annually dominate the statistics. But I think the best examples of true horsemanship were displayed by my top three.

Top Jockey. . . . . . .RAMON DOMINGUEZ, JOHN VELAZQUEZ; JOEL ROSARIO 

All rank very high on the money winning list; all had high win percentages. Dominguez looked to me to be the best jockey in America many more times than he seemed to be enduring a slump.  

Top Apprentice. . . .RYAN CUROTOLO; IRAD ORTIZ; C.J. MCMAHON

Curotolo looked helpless at Gulfstream in January but was the most improved rider I saw in the second half of the year. The other two apprentice riders also showed considerable promise.

Top Steeplechaser. TAX RULIING; BLACK JACK BLUES; MABOU

A spirited competition this year amongst these three. Each won important hurdle races.

Top Owner. . . . . . .WIN STAR FARM; FOX HILL FARMS; KEN & SARAH RAMSEY

Good overall record plus the BC Classic winner trumped several with good records. The Ramseys certainly have been campaigning for this award, as noted by full page ads in Daily Racing Form. I'm not a big fan of that. This is not Hollywood.  

Top Breeder. . . . . LIVE OAK PLANTATION; ADENA SPRINGS; AUGUSTIN STABLES

All three had solid campaigns and several victories in important stakes with modest numbers.

HORSE OF THE YEAR. . .NONE, AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

 Potential candidates include of course HAVRE DE GRACE, TIZWAY and/or GAME ON DUDE, possibly ROYAL DELTA; MISS AURELIA and/or CAPE BLANCO. So by all means send along your personal preference with a short reason to me at Steve@GradeOneRacing.com. 

PLEASE NOTE. . .The person who supplies the best rationale for his or her Horse of the Year selection will win a free seasonal subscription to www.GradeOneRacing.com

If he or she already has a subscription, the winner will get a FREE $100 WIN WAGER on horse of his or her choice in a stakes on the Feb 18 racing card at Gulfstream Park.

On that Feb. 18, 2012  date we will publish complete rules for our annual FREE KENTUCKY DERBY FANTASY CONTEST, which last year produced winning voucher plays on the 2011 Belmont Stakes that totaled in excess of $25,000!

Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukah and All the Best to all who love this great game.

Steve Davidowitz

The column this Sunday,will focus on the Best and Worst of 2011.

 

 

The first prize winner in the Grand Prize Award Division, is:

KEN SCHMITT, who scored 1830 points, which was 450 more than the next best tally. Congratulations Ken!   

Ken won a great trip for two to the 2012 Kentucky Derby that includes air fare, hotel, admission and seats for Oaks and Derby Day, plus some useful betting money! 

The 19 other prize winners will be listed here when I get back to home base in Las Vegas, on Tuesday Nov. 22 . Am traveling, visiting friends, doing some recruiting etc.  In the meantime, Lynn Snierson, who coordinates Contest Notifications for this site, will be sending out personal E-mails to all 20 prize winners.

All the Best/Steve Davidowitz

SUMMARY OF THE BC JUVENILE SPRINT, 6 FURLONGS

The Bob Baffert trained 2 year old  went to the post with two fast wins in two starts at 40 cents on the dollar as if he was the second coming of Citation. But hype or no, Secret Circle did break quickly from the gate in tandem with speedball TRINNIBERG,  as both combined to set a blistering early pace, before Secret Circle shook free at the top of the stretch; opened up a few lengths and held the European 2 year old filly SHUMOOS safe while drifting out badly through the final 1/16 miles. HOLDIN BULLETS, a winner of his lone start in April at Keeneland  also broke well and stayed close to the dueling leaders throughout and finished a good third.

The track was listed as “good”, which was a misnomer. After Thursday's rains and Friday's overcast cool temperatures, the sun finally came out and helped dry out the track. By the 4:05 PM, EDT Post Time there were a handful of shallow wet spots but the surface was ‘FAST ENOUGH'. 

The evidence for that can be seen in the first quarter mile fractional split clocked in 20.96, among the fastest first quarter miles for a six furlong race at Churchill Downs in two years.

The complete splits for this very first running of this new BC race and the first BC of 15 scheduled for  Friday and Saturday were: 20.96. . .44.55 . .56.99. . .1:10.52 and probably the most fact to emerge from the race was this: SECRET CIRCLE was the eighth Breeders' Cup victory of Bob Baffert's Hall of Fame training career.

“He's not just a sprinter, “Baffert said. “ He's a son of Eddington, who ran in the Belmont Stakes. . . We'll stretch him out and test him at longer distances when it feels right to do it. “

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$1 MILLION BC JUVENILE FILLIES TURF AT ONE MILE

Beyond the tactics that determined the outcome, the underlying fact of this race can be summed up in one sentence:

One Sentence Recap: The first four finishers in this one mile turf race for 2 year old fillies---STEPHANIE'S KITTEN, STOPSHOPPINGMARIA, SWEET CAT and UP all broke from favorable inner post positions while the undefeated betting favorite ELUSIVE KATE from Europe suffered ground loss from post 10 and the second choice, SOMALI LEMONDADE never overcame the effects of post 14 in the 14 horse field.

Stephanie's Kitten, ($6.10-1), came into the race with good form on synthetics and turf at Arlington Park, Woodbine in Canada and Keeneland in Kentucky and she broke well from post 5,  saved ground a few lengths off the pace, came out for her stretch bid under John Velazquez in mid stretch to overtake front running STOPSHOPPINGMARIA and won the one mile turf event going away on the rain softened course. She was clocked  in 1:38.90 for the mile.

Stopshoppingmaria,  ($8.80-1) broke on top from post 4 and held the advantage under good rating by Javier Castellano, but she was no match late when Stephanie's Kitten ranged alongside inside the final 1/16.

SWEET CAT, breaking from post 6 raced closest to the leader throughout and held third while the Irish import UP rallied mildly for fourth.

ELUSIVE KATE, unbeaten in four prior starts in Europe was the $2.80-1 betting favorite but never made a bid finishing eighth.

SOMALI LEMONADE, the $4-1 second choice who had won both of her previous races with strong late rallies, was next to last early and tried to get into the race while seven wide but never made any impact on the outcome while making a mild late gain to finish sixth.

The fractions were: 24.57. . .50.55. . .1:15.71. . .1:27.12. . .1:38.90 on a rain softened turf course listed as ‘Good'.

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$1 MILLION FILLY AND MARE SPRINT,  7 FURLONGS.

One sentence recap: Heavily favored TURBULENT DESCENT had a horrendous trip that cost her the race.

Bumped badly from both sides leaving the starting gate by GREAT HOT (in post 2) and CHAMPAGNE D'ORO  (in post 4), TURBULENT DESCENT (in post 3) paid a stiff price for the incident.

Shuffled back several lengths, jockey David Flores tried to relax his mount and give her time to gather herself, but after the first 1/4 mile, while beginning to move up in traffic approaching the far turn, Flores had to steady again which further complicated her chances.

Yet, rounding the far turn into the stretch, the 4 yr old daughter of Congrats still had enough energy to launch a four wide move to the leaders, and after gaining an edge heading for home, weakened noticeably from her efforts and staggered home fifth.

In the meantime, 20-1 shot MUSICAL ROMANCE rallied along the rail to score from a close attacking position to score by 1-1/4 lengths over. SWITCH ($3.10-1)and HER SMILE ($28.20-1) rallied well down the center of the track for second and third. POMEROY'S PISTOL ($6.90-1, on or near the pace most of the way settled for fourth ½ lengths in front of the exhausted Turbulent Descent.

While Switch's second placing closely replicated her second place finish to DUBAI MAJESTY in last year's BC F and M Sprint, just as Musical Romance's win resembled the win by Dubai Majesty as both fillies came out of the same Keeneland stakes—the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes prior to winning this Breeders' Cup race.

Beyond the celebrations and praise that were heaped on low profile jockey Juan Leyva  and long time Calder based trainer William Kaplan for Misical Romance's win, this was a most disappointing outcome for the connections of Turbulent Descent who entered the BC race with six wins in eight career starts. Moreover, she was a heavily weighted single by a large percentage of players who were went down the tubes with their wagers in all pools including the Pick Four that began with this race and the day's Pick Six which was at it's midway point.

Fractions and final time for the 7 furlongs: 212.40. …45.71. .1:10.59. . .1:23.47.

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$2 MILLION JUVENILE FILLIES, 1-1/16 MILES

One Sentence Recap: Undefeated MY MISS AURELIA, a daughter of Smart Strike, scored a relatively straightforward victory under Corey Nakatani over second place finisher GRACE HALL to clinch an Eclipse Award as the top 2 year old filly in America.

The $2.10-1 favorite trained by Steve Asmussen, broke well (from post 9) and stalked the pace set by CANDREA  (post 2) for about 5-1/2 furlongs before she moved to the lead entering the far turn and was able to hold GRACE HALL ($3.70-1)  safe from there to the wire.

The final margin was three lengths and Grace Hall was six in front of third place finisher WEEMISFRANKIE, ($5.30-1), who was asked for some speed to be in contact with the leaders (from her post 11), but was no danger to the top two.

SELF PRESERVATION ($58-1) , finished fourth and despite the top three betting choices finishing 1-2-3, helped to inflate the $2 Superfecta payoff to $2,255.40.

The fractions and final time: 23.20. . .47.19. . .1:13.08. . .1:39.20. . .1:46.00.

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$2 MILLION FILLY AND MARE TURF, AT 1-3/8 MILES.

One Sentence Recap: 9-5 betting favorite STACELITA  fell apart after stalking the pace, as 27-1 shot PERFECT SHIRL rallied on the outside of four other stretch runners to win this slow paced race in a blanket finish.

The highly regarded European contender—ANNOUNCE--- was scratched at the starting gate after some erratic behavior and after she scraped herself against a metallic object. After a brief inspection, the attending track veterinarian decided there was sufficient cause for a scratch.

DUBAWI HEIGHTS set the pace as expected from (post 1) for the first mile before giving way to DYNASLEW who promptly gave way to STACELITA  who also faded almost as quickly on the final turn.

In the meantime, last year's winner SHARED ACCOUNT put her nose in front and battled with the undefeated French based 3 year old NAHRAIN who held the advantage through much of the stretch before PERFECT SHIRL, MISTY FOR ME, DISTORTED LEGACY  and ARUNA all took flight for the wire five across the track.

At the wire, Perfect Shirl was surging strongest, finishing first by 3/4 lengths; Nahrain was second a nose in front of Misty For Me, who was a head in front of Distorted Legacy, who finished a head in front of Aruna as Dubawi Heights settled for sixth, Shared Account seventh and Stacelita tenth, a bare neck in front of last place finisher Dynaslew. . . Barely seven lengths covered the entire 11 horse field.

With the 27-1 shot winner followed by the $2.90-1 second and $5.10-1 third choices and a 44-1 shot fourth, the $2 Superfecta paid a whopping $43,429.

The Fractions which featured a strong final 3/8 miles clocked in 35.80 were:

 25.44. . .51.07. .1:16.90. .1:42.72. .2:06.44. . .2:18.62.

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$2 MILLION BC LADIES CLASSIC AT 1-1/8 MILES.

One Sentence Recap: The Billy Mott trained 3 year old filly ROYAL DELTA, a slight $2.20-1 betting favorite, used her developing stretch kick to overtake IT'S TRICKY and the fading PLUM PRETTY (who also was $2.20-1) to win this important race going away.

The rapidly developing daughter of Empire Maker, who came to top form in the 1-1/4 mile Alabama Stakes at Saratoga this summer, made a steady move to front running Plum Pretty and It's Tricky approaching the final furlong and lengthened her stride noticeably to leave no doubt about the outcome in the final 100 yards.

The final margin at the finish was in fact 2-1/2 lengths. The win almost certainly earned Royal Delta the Eclipse Award as the nation's top 3 year old filly.

It's Tricky, who stalked Plum Pretty's pace for more than 7 furlongs, briefly seemed on her way to a hard earned victory when she took over the lead approaching the furlong pole, but was no match for her stretch running rival. Still It's Tricky held well for second, while Plum Pretty could not stay the trip and faded to fifth despite her comfortable early lead.

PACHATTACK in fact took third and ULTRA BLEND fourth.

The Fractions:  24.18. . .49.00. . .1:13.72. . .1:38.12. . .1:50.78.

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So ended a BC Day that in truth carried very little drama and only a quiet buzz, rather than the electric excitement that we have come to expect from BC Days. No doubt, however, that the Saturday card, with nine good BC races including GOLDIKOVA'S scheduled bid for a fourth straight BC Mile victory AND an intriguing BC Classic featuring the enigmatic UNCLE MO and the top 4 yr old filly HAVRE DE GRACE, will pump up the volume.

 Good Luck and Good Handicapping/Steve Davidowitz

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IMPORTANT NOTE: There are 20 valuable prize awards in this handicapping contest.  . .Ten prizes, including a fantastic trip to the 2012 Kentucky Derby, are specifically reserved for “Four Month”; “Current Seasonal” and “Yearly subscribers.

The other 10 prizes are reserved for subscribers who have purchased either the Special Keeneland-Churchill Downs subscription that runs through closing day at Churchill Downs, Nov. 27, or the Special Breeders' Cup Subscription package now on sale. Be reminded that we will  be loaded with our exclusive workout reports and in depth BC information on every horse in the 15 BC races beginning Wednesday, Oct. 26 through Tuesday, Nov. 8. The section will have new info every day and will include blogs by Chief Clocker Bruno DeJulio, columns by Pedigree xpert Lauren Stich  and on the scene coverage and columns by Steve Davidowitz.

Please Note: Current BC Package and Keeneland-Churchill subscribers can upgrade to the “Four Month” and/or “Yearly Subscriptions” to play for the GRAND PRIZE AWARDS while applying their existing paid subscription as a generous down payment to reduced package rates for 'Four Month' and/or 'Yearly' packages. . . An “Upgrade” automatically will qualify you for the contest with the Kentucky Derby trip and other lucrative Grand Prize Awards.

 SECTION A:

BASIC SCORING RULE AND PRIZE AWARDS:

Points for ALL PRIZE AWARDS for all subscribers are to be based on hypothetical $20 Win, $20 Place wagers on selections made by eligible contest players.

 GRAND PRIZE AWARDS . . .For players who are subscribers to the “Four Month”, “Current Seasonal” and “Yearly" subscribers:

 FIRST PRIZE:  Trip for two to the 2012 Kentucky Derby, including airfare; three nights in a first class hotel in Louisville for two; plus a pair of admissions and seats for the Kentucky Oaks and a pair of admissions and seats for the Kentucky Derby; plus a $500 betting bankroll to be wagered on the Kentucky Oaks and $1000 to be wagered on the Kentucky Derby. . .Total Value of this Grand Prize in this Free Contest: $7,500.

SECOND PRIZE: For subscribers to the “Four Month”, “Current Seasonal” and “Yearly" packages:

An $800 Betting Voucher. . .$400 Win and $400 Place Bet made on your behalf on the horse of your choice in the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes on opening day at Santa Anita Park, Monday Dec. 26, 2011—with net profits of said wager to be retained by the winning player.

THIRD PRIZE: For subscribers to the “Four Month”, “Current Seasonal” and “Yearly" subscribers:

A $400 Betting Voucher. . .$200 Win and $200 Place Bet made on your behalf on the horse of your choice in the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes on opening day at Santa Anita Park, Monday Dec. 26, 2011—with net profits of said wager to be retained by the winning player.

 Fourth, Fifth and Sixth Place Prizes: For subscribers to the “Four Month”, “Current Seasonal” and “Yearly" subscribers:

$200 Betting Vouchers. . .$100 Win, $100 Place Bets made on behalf of each prize winner on the horse of their respective choice in the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes on opening day at Santa Anita Park, Monday Dec. 26, 2011—with net profits of said wager(s) to be retained by the winning players.

 Seventh through Tenth Prizes: For subscribers to the “Four Month”, “Current Seasonal” and “Yearly" subscribers:

$100 Betting Vouchers. . .$50 Win, $50 Place Bets made on behalf of each prize winner on the horse of their respective choice in the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes on opening day at Santa Anita Park, Monday Dec. 26, 2011—with net profits of said wager to be retained by the winning player.

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 10 SEPARATE PRIZES FOR BC AND KEENELAND-CHURCHILL SUBSCRIBERS.

10 Special prizes will be awarded to the top finishers who are current subscribers to the Keeneland-Churchill meet or have purchased the Special BC Package.

Remember, upgrades are available to play for the Grand Prize at generous terms. (click here for details)

FIRST PRIZE: For players who are current subscribers to the Kee-CD package or the Special BC package.

$250 Betting Voucher. . .$125 Win, $125 Place made on behalf of the prize winner who is the highest scoring player amongst the BC Package and Kee-CD package subscribers. The bet will be made on the horse of your choice in the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes on opening day at Santa Anita Park, Monday Dec. 26, 2011—with net profits of said wager to be retained by the winning player.

SECOND PRIZE: For current subscribers to the Kee-CD package or the Special BC package.

$150 Betting Voucher. . .$75 Win, $75 Place made on behalf of the prize winner who is the second highest scoring player amongst the BC package and Kee-CD package subscribers. The bet will be made on the horse of your choice in the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes on opening day at Santa Anita Park, Monday Dec. 26, 2011—with net profits of said wager to be retained by the winning player.

THIRD PRIZE: For current subscribers to the Kee-CD package or the Special BC package.

$80 Betting Voucher. . .$40 Win, $40 Place made on behalf of the prize winner who is the third highest scoring player amongst the BC package and Kee-CD package subscribers. The bet will be made on the horse of your choice in the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes on opening day at Santa Anita Park, Monday Dec. 26, 2011—with net profits of said wager to be retained by the winning player.

FOURTH THROUGH TENTH PRIZES: For current subscribers to the Kee-CD package or the Special BC package.

$40 Betting Vouchers. . A $40 Win wager (no place bet) made on behalf of the prize winners who are the fourth through tenth highest scoring players amongst the BC package and Kee-CD package subscribers. The respective bets will be made on the horse of the winning players' individual choices in the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes on opening day at Santa Anita Park, Monday Dec. 26, 2011—with net profits of said wager to be retained by the winning player.

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• This is a FREE, on-line contest for subscribers to www.GradeOneRacing.com

Races to be run on Nov 4 and 5 at Churchill Downs.

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Playing our contests is easy; but please read the details carefully.

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SECTION B:

CONTEST ELIGIBILITY:

To be eligible to play for the Grand Prize Awards, players must be one of the following:

* A GradeOneRacing.com subscriber to the current Fall-Winter package that expires Dec. 31, 2011.

* Subscriber to a current Four-Month plan.

* Subscriber for the current Full Year that ends on Dec. 31, 2011.

* Subscriber for the 2012 Yearly Package that may have been purchased during the past month and will continue through Dec. 31, 2012.

PLEASE NOTE: There are three additional eligibility options for other subscribers that include a subscription upgrade:

If you are:

A) A current subscriber to the $89.99 Keeneland-Churchill Downs Special Package that was offered at the start of Keeneland;

Or, if you are :

B) A subscriber to the Special Breeders' Cup Week Package that currently is being offered (with our special BC section to be unveiled Oct. 26) at $39.99.

You can become eligible for GRAND PRIZE AWARDS via a special upgrade to a four month ($159.99) package if the upgrade is purchased before Contest Registration closes at 11 :59  PM EDT, (8:59 PM, PDT) Thursday, Nov. 3, 2011.

This special upgrade will generously treat the respective $89.99 or $39.99 package fees already paid as a ‘down payment' for the $159.99 Four Month package.

 Stating this simply, the four month package upgrade would cost $60 for existing $89.99 subscribers; $110 for $39.99 subscribers.

 The generous down payment may also be applied to a $375.99 Yearly Subscription at the discounted rate of $299.99 ($210 additional for $89.99 subscribers, or $260 for BC subscribers.)

C) In addition, present Monthly Subscribers, who paid $59.99 can upgrade to the four month subscription by paying $90 and become eligible for this handicapping contest. Please note that without an upgrade, Monthly subscribers are ineligible for either set of prize awards.

 To summarize, any ‘Monthly', or ‘Keeneland-Churchill', or ‘BC Week' subscriber who upgrades to the Four Month Subscription or a Yearly Subscription, on or before 11:59 PM, EDT, (8:59 PM, PDT), Thursday, Nov. 3, automatically will become eligible to the Grand Prize Awards in this contest on the BC races.

Any new Four Month Subscription will begin on the date it is purchased and expire a full four calendar months later.

Any new Yearly Subscription will begin on signup and expire on Dec. 31, 2012 and will include other handicapping contests in 2012.

Otherwise, only eligible subscribers as described in this section can participate in our Handicapping Contest on the 2011 Breeders' Cup races.

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SECTION C:

SELECTION DEADLINES

FRIDAY, NOV 4.

SELECTIONS FOR FRIDAY'S SIX BREEDERS CUP RACES WITH AN ALTERNATE PICK MUST BE MADE BY:

 3:01 PM, EDT, (12:01 PM, PDT), FRIDAY, NOV. 4.

On Friday, November 4, 2011, prior to 3:01 PM, EDT (12:01 PM, PDT), players will select one preferred horse AND an alternate selection in each of six Friday Breeders Cup races on the designated contest page for mythical contest wagers of $20 to Win; $20 to Place.

SATURDAY, NOV 5.

SELECTIONS FOR THE SATURDAY BREEDERS CUP RACES WITH AN ALTERNATE PICK MUST BE MADE BY:

 1:01 PM, EDT, (10:01 AM, PDT, SATURDAY, NOV. 5.

On Saturday, Nov. 5, 2011, prior to 1:01 PM, EDT, (10:01 AM, PDT), players will select one preferred horse AND an alternate selection in each of nine Saturday Breeders Cup races for mythical contest wagers of $20 to Win; $20 to Place.

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SECTION D: 

IMPORTANT RULES FOR MAKING SELECTIONS.

Repeating, only subscribers as spelled out in ‘Section B' are eligible for this free handicapping contest..

HERE'S THE WINDOW FOR ENROLLMENT IN THIS CONTEST; LATE ENTRIES NOT PERMITTED.

* Eligible players can enroll in this Handicapping Contest on the 15 Breeders' Cup races from:

 Tuesday Nov. 1, at 12:01 PM, EDT, (9:01 AM PDT), through 11:59 PM, EDT (8:59 PM, PDT) on Thurs.,Nov. 3.

* Participants must provide their active username and password in the designated place for this contest on the web site. This information will be verified against our customer database and will bring eligible players to the contest entry selection page.

*  No entries for either day will be accepted by direct E-mail and the following rules are extremely important.

* All entries must be registered via the appropriate Entry Page on the www.GradeOneRacing.com website in a timely manner.

* No late entries will be accepted and if an entry is not properly posted on the web site with a preferred choice AND an alternate selection before the respective deadlines on either day---or is incomplete---said entry will be disqualified. 

* All selections are final after they are submitted and confirmed by return auto E-mail. Likewise, no player's selections will be considered for scoring until actively submitted via the 'submit' button. . .A confirmation E-mail will verify the completion of this process.

* Only one entry per person is permitted in our Handicapping Contest on the Breeders' Cup races, using the same username throughout the contest.

* In the event that any preferred selection is scratched, the alternate selection automatically will be used for scoring purposes. . .Should that horse also be scratched, the  post-time favorite for that race automatically will replace said scratched horse(s).

 * Multiple entries by one person are instant grounds for disqualification from all Prize Awards.

* Officers and contributors to GradeOneRacing.com may participate in this contest, but will be ineligible for the 10 Prize Awards. Should any G1-R.com officer or contributor finish in the top 10 for either Prize Award category, the next eligible contest player(s) will move up in the rankings to receive their appropriate prize award(s).

* All disputes regarding any aspect of this contest, including possible cancellation of races, or electronic malfunctions, or Internet issues and other unforeseen delays or anomalies shall be decided strictly by the presiding officers of GradeOneRacing.com. Their judgments will be final in all cases.

*A FURTHER NOTE OF CAUTION:  Failure to provide selections and alternate selections due to Internet issues are the responsibility of the contest player, so be sure to put your picks in with sufficient time prior to the stated deadlines.

* While GradeOneRacing.com intends to run this contest normally and without interruption, GradeOneRacing.com  reserves the right to cancel this contest for any reason at any time before or during the contest and as such all scores will be voided; no prize awards will be tendered, and every effort will be made to reschedule a replacement contest on a suitable racing card, or cards with notice give by E-mail to all who entered this competition.

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SECTION E:

ACTUAL SCORING RULES

* The contest winner and all subsequent placements will be determined by the highest pari mutual totals earned according to the specified scoring formulas outlined below.

* Each contestant will earn points in each contest race, based on the official win and place payoffs for the horse selected for that race.

* Contest Points will be awarded based on actual payoff prices in the BC races, as posted by the contest track, in this case Churchill Downs.

* Points will be based on hypothetical $20 Win, $20 Place wagers on that horse.

* A cap limit of 620 points (30-1) will be set as the maximum to be awarded for any single $20 contest win wager.

* A cap of 320 points (15-1) will be awarded for any single $20 contest place wager.

* A BONUS AWARD OF 100 points will be added on top of the winning payoff (or on top of a capped win payoff) for a correct selection in a specified contest race on each of the two BC Racing cards.

The specified Bonus Races for each day will be designated by 8:00 PM, Wednesday, Nov. 2, 2010.

Scoring Example 1:

If a player's selection in a contest race finishes first and the official pari-mutuel payoffs for $2 wagers at Churchill Downs are: $6.00 to win; $4.00 to place; the player will receive a total of 100 points for that race.

$6.00 = 60 points for the hypothetical $20 contest wager.

$4.00 = 40 points for the hypothetical $20 contest wager.

$10.00 = 100 Total Contest Points for this one race.

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Scoring Example 2:

If a player's selection finishes second and returns $35.00 to place, no points would be awarded for the $20 contest WIN bet, but the points for finishing SECOND would be reduced from 350 to 320 (due to the 320 cap limit for place).

$35.00 = 320 net contest points for place, (cap limit of 320 for place imposed.)

$32.00 cap to place = 320 Total Contest Points for this one race.

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Scoring Example 3:

If a player's selection wins the designated 'Bonus Race' for that contest and the pari-mutuel, payoff is $72 to win and $35 to place; payoff points will include cap limits and bonus points, as below:

$75, (Cap limit $62) = 620 points.

$35, (Cap limit $32) = 320 points

Bonus Race Winner= 100 points

Total = 1040 total points for this longshot winner in the 'Bonus Race.'

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 Tie-Breakers

 A: In the event of ties for any of the top three prizes in the Grand Prize Award grpoup, or the other prize group, the first tie breaker shall be the final time in hundredths selected for the winner in the Breeders' Cup Classic on Saturday. Closest time wins.

B: If still tied, the next tie breaker will be the best finish by the player's selection in the designated 'Bonus Race' on Saturday.

C: If still tied, all prizes other than the top prize in the Grand Prize Award Group will be split, but should there still be a tie for the top prize, there will be a coin flip conducted by conference call, supervised by a well known racing writer, not connected to this website.

* Final scores will be posted by 12 Noon PST, on Tuesday, Nov. 8 and should a score seem to be incorrect, the player must request Steve@GradeOneRacing.com to conduct a recount of his or her score no later than 12 Noon PST, Thursday, Nov. 11.

 * Final Prize distribution will be official by 12 Noon PST, Friday, Nov. 12.

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 Good Luck and Good Handicapping to all contest players.

Steve Davidowitz

CEO-Editor in Chief, www.GradeOneRacing.com

E-Mail: Steve@GradeOneRacing.com

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Yes, hold on to your hats, or at least your sanity.

The accelerated BC prep race schedule will take off on Saturday Oct 1, through mid Oct., as Belmont Park, Santa Anita and Keeneland Racetrack will host a barrage of Graded Stakes with implications for the 15 Breeders' Cup races. And beyond those races here in America, we should save some focus for the prestigious Prix d'l'Arc deTriomphe On Sunday, Oct 2 at Longchamp in Paris, France. The Arc, of course, has long been regarded as Europe's most important race.

Get your video replay sessions organized. 

Watch for our improved workout coverage that will include a new rating system for all works that our Workout Analysts are monitoring at Belmont, Saratoga, Santa Anita Park, Hollywood, Keeneland and Churchill Downs.

Keep an eye out for Lauren Stich's pedigree notes on the 2 year olds who will be stretching out in distance for the first time in some of the most intriguing prep races on the schedule. Races such as the Norfolk Stakes for 2 year olds at 1-1/16 miles at Santa Anita, Oct. 1 and the  Alcibiades at the same distance for 2 year old fillies at Keeneland, Friday, Oct. 7.

I honestly can state that GradeOneRacing.com knocked several home runs out of the park during the 2010 BC prep race season and continued forward with similar momentum on the two BC days.

We were not perfect, of course. Some horses outran their mediocre works or performed much better than their ambiguous Performance Notes and some failed to reproduce what was anticipated. We see this every day in horse racing; there are plenty of unsolved mysteries that confound pre race expectations for the sharpest eyes and handicapping minds in this amazing game.

Still, the value offered to serious-minded players often presents itself in the most competitive Graded stakes populated by large fields and include one or more high profile contenders who peaked in June, July or August, or never reached their expected potential.

 Of course, the same definitely will prove to be the case in many of the BC races at Churchill.

Frankly, I still believe there are at least three, maybe five BC races that we do not need unless they are there merely to justify a two day pay day for the BC with its attending high prices for seats and amenities.

Why for instance, do we need a separate BC Sprint for Fillies and Mares when the BC Sprint for all horses worked just fine when it was a forum for colts, geldings, fillies and mares? Why have the $1 million Filly and Mare BC Sprint set at 7 furlongs, while the $1.5 million BC Sprint is set at 6 furls?  Why not merge both races into a single $2 million test at 6-1/2 furlongs?

Why have a BC Marathon at 1-3/4  miles when there are no legit stakes leading up to that event at that distance and the majority of horses who participate in it tend to be below the Grade-1 level.

No doubt the BC Turf sprint for 2 year olds will be an entertaining, wild and woolly affair, but why have any BC race that attracts horses below the Grade-1 level.

 That said, we will have 15 BC races this year---one more than the past few years--- and the plan now is to offer six of the races on Friday, November 4 and nine BC races on Saturday, Nov. 5.

The actual order and post times for all BC races---along with the extra stakes that will fill out both cards---will be announced Wednesday, Oct. 26, when pre entries are publicly announced.

Below, I have listed all of this year's BC races, and indicated in several instances which horse(s) I am looking at---with six weeks to go---as possible key horses to bet, or build upon for exotic wagers. These preferences will be subject to further examination of course.

THE 15 BREEDERS CUP RACES FOR 2011.

 $500,000 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint, 2 yr. olds, both sexes; 6 furlongs on dirt.

 $2 million BCup Juvenile (Grade-I) 2 yr olds, male horses; 1-1/16 mi. on dirt.
Right now for this race, I like:  Bob Baffert's DRILL who was game winner of the DMR Futurity in just his second lifetime start and is a long range Ky. Derby prospect.

$1 million BCup Juvenile Turf (G-I) 2 yr olds, 1-mi. on turf.

$2 million BCup Juvenile Fillies (G-I), 2 yr olds, 1-1/16 mi. on dirt.
Right now, for this race, I like: GRACE HALL, who won the 7 furlong Spinaway at Saratoga and should improve at longer distances.

 $1 million BCup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G-II), 2 yr old fillies, 1 mi. on turf $1,000,000.

$1 million BCup Filly & Mare Sprint (G-I), 3 yr olds & up, F & M, 7 furls. dirt.

$2 million BCup Filly & Mare Turf (G-I), 3 yr olds & up F & M, 1-3/8 mi. turf.

$2 million BCup Ladies' Classic (G-I), 3 yr olds & up F & M, 1-1/8 mi. dirt.

$1 million BCup Turf Sprint (G-II), 3 yr olds & up, 5 furlongs on turf.
Right now, I expect to see a former claiming horse with good Churchill turf form win this race.

$2 million BCup Mile (G-I); 3 yr olds & up; 1 mi. on turf.
Right now for this race, I Iike COURAGEOUS CAT's upset chances. If you want to know why just look at his Woodbine Mile.

$3 million BCup Turf (G-I), 3 yr olds & up 1-1/2 mi. on turf.
Right now, for this race, I like the Irish based CAPE BLANCO, who might only be beaten by another European import.

$500,000 BCup Marathon (G-II), 3 yr olds & up 1-3/4 mi on dirt.
Right now, I expect this race to be dominated by European imports with reasonable breeding for dirt tracks.

$1 million BCup Dirt Mile (G-I), 3 yr olds & up, 1 mi. around one turn on dirt.
Right now, for this race, I like: JACKSON BEND, although 2010 Juvenile Champ UNCLE MO will be formidable if his connections elect to bypass the BC Classic, as I think they should.

$5 million BCup Classic (G-I), 3 yr olds & up, 1-1/4 mi. on dirt.
 Right now, I believe we will see a longshot surprise winner in the richest race on the American racing calendar.

$1.5 million BCup Sprint (G-I), 3 yr olds & up, 6 furlongs on dirt.
Right now, for this race, I love: THE FACTOR, who possesses a rare combination of breakaway early zip and middle distance stamina. But we will see if defending champion BIG DRAMA is completely back to his top form in the Vosburgh Stakes at Belmont, Oct. 1.  Check below for a complete list of the three dozen relevant prep stakes that will feed all of the above BC races. My suggestion for handling this unwieldly schedule, is to set up a notebook with one page devoted to each race.

 PARX (formerly Philadelphia Park)

 Saturday, Sept. 24:
$1 million Pennsylvania Derby, G-2, 3 yr olds, 1-1/8 mi. dirt.

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TURFWAY PARK
All races on Polytrack.

 Saturday, Sept. 24.
$200,000 Kentucky Cup, G-2; 3yr olds & up, 1-1/16 mi.
$100,000 Kentucky Cup Sprint, G-3, 3 yr olds, 6 furlongs.
$100,000 Kentucky Cup Distaff, G-3, 3yr olds F & M, 1-1/16 mi.

Plus these two ungraded Stakes that may include possible BC starters.
$100,000 Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies, 1-mi. around two turns.
$100,000 Kentucky Cup Juvenile, 1-1/16 mi.
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BELMONT PARK

Saturday, Sept. 24.
$ 150,000 Gallant Bloom Handicap G-2, F&M 3 yr olds up, 6-1/2 furlongs, dirt.

Saturday, Oct. 1:
$ 500,000 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, G-1, 3 yr olds & up, 1-1/2 mi., turf.
$750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup, G-1, 3 yr olds & up, 1-1/4 mi., dirt
$500,000 Flower Bowl, G-1, F&M  3yr olds & up, 1-1/4 mi., turf.
$350,000 Beldame, G-1, $350,000 F&M 3yr olds & up, 1-1/8 mi., dirt
$350,000 Vosburgh, G-1, 3yr olds & up, 6 furlongs, dirt.
$250,000 Kelso Handicap, G-2, 3 yr olds & up, 1 mi. around one turn, dirt

Sunday, Oct. 2:
$150,000 Nashua, G-2, 2 yr olds, 6 furlongs, dirt.
$150,000 Tempted, G-3, 2 yr olds, 6 furlongs, dirt.
$100,000 Pilgrim, G-3, 2 yr olds, 1-1/16 mi., turf.
$100,000 Miss Grillo, G-3, Fillies, 2 yr olds, 1-1/16 mi., turf.

Saturday, Oct. 8:
$300,000 Champagne, G-1, 2 yr olds, 1-mi. around one turn, dirt.
$300,000 Frizette, G-1, 2 yr old Fillies, 1 mi. around one turn, dirt.
$250,000 Jamaica Handicap, 3 yr olds, 1-1/8 mi., turf.
-------------------------- --------------------------- -----------------------
SANTA ANITA

Saturday, Oct. 1:
$250,000 Norfolk, G-1, 2 yr olds, 1-1/16 mi, dirt.
$250,000 Goodwood, G-1, 3 yr. olds & up, 1-1/8 mi., dirt.
$250,000, Yellow Ribbon, G-I, F & M, 3 yr olds & up, 1-1/4 mi., turf.
$250,000 Lady's Secret, G-I, F & M, 3yr olds and up, 1-1/16 mi., dirt.

Sunday, Oct. 2:  
$250,000 Oak Leaf, G-1, 2 yr old fillies, 1-1/16 mi., dirt.
$150,000 Clement L. Hirsch Turf Championship, G-2, 3 yr olds & up, 1-1/4 mi, turf.

Saturday, October 8, 2011
$150,000 Oak Tree Mile, G-2, 3 yr olds & up, 1 mi. two turns, turf.
$150,000 Ancient Title, G-1, 3 yr olds & up, 6 furlongs, dirt.
-------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------
KEENELAND

Friday, Oct. 7:
$400,000  Alicibiades, G-1, 2 yr old fillies, 1-1/16 mi., Polytrack.
$175,000 Phoenix, G-3, 3 yr olds & up, 6 furlongs, Polytrack.

Saturday, Oct. 8:
$600,000  Shadwell Turf Mile, G-1,  3 yr olds & up, 1 mi., two turns, turf.
$400,000 Breeders' Futurity, G-1, 2 yr olds, 1-1/16 mi., Polytrack.
$200,000 Thoroughbred Club of America, G-2, F & M, 3 yr olds & up, 6 furlongs, Poly.
$350,000 First Lady, G-1, F &M, 3 yr olds and up, 1-mi., turf.
$100,000 Woodford, G-3, 3 yr olds & up, 5-1/2  furlongs, turf.

Sunday, Oct. 9:
$500,000 Spinster, G-1, F &M, 3 yr olds & up, 1-1/8 mi., Polytrack.
$100,000 Bourbon, G-3, 1-1/16 mi., 2 yr olds, turf.

Thursday, Oct. 13:
$150,000 Jessamine, G-3, 2 yr old fillies, 1-1/16 mi., turf.

Saturday, Oct. 15:
$400,000  Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, G-1, 3 yr old fillies, 1-1/18 mi., turf.
-----------------------
LONGCHAMP, Paris, France.

Sunday, Oct. 2:
$2.5 million L'Prix d'l'Arc deTriomphe, G-1, 3 yr olds & up, 1-1/2 mi, turf.
$300,000 Prix de L'Abbaye, G-1, 2 yr olds & up, 5 furlongs-a straightaway race on turf.
------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------

Use TVG, NBC TV and Video Replays on the Internet to gain insight into the horses who seem to have BC credentials. 

Use GradeOneRacing.com's exclusive multi track Workout Reports, Performance Notes and Pedigree Profiles to supplement DRF past performances and Equibase Result Charts.

Keep an eye out for the Special BC section we will be building for subscribers that will help narrow the contention for the two days of BC competition.

The BC season has begun; It is a compressed whirlwind of exciting races to  be played out coast to coast and beyond. At it's core,  there will be plenty of opportunities for all of us to make good scores.

----------------------------- --------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------

Best of Luck and Good Handicapping/Steve Davidowitz

 

While I wish the ACRI had left room at the bottom of their artlicle for public comments, they did not.

While I also wish they would realize that most of us in the game support the increased vigilance of testing labs, the simple truth is that there are drugs out there being used that no commission or sport has tested for or has control over. . .Nevertheless, here is the positive article as it appeared on the ACRI site. It also was distributed widely through the excellent website www.equidaily.com, which also distributed my column about the myriad problems facing Calfornia racing in particlar and racing's  drug problems throughout the land.

I did reply directly to the ACRI web site through their 'contact us'- link and have included those remarks at the bottom of the ACRI Article, below.

Your comments, of course are welcome here on this and any other subject we discuss in this forum. 

 The ACRI Article:

On May 5, 2011, the front page of USA Today was headlined “Chemical Warfare in Horse Racing Targeted”. The article was prompted by the comments of a prominent public official who declared that “Chemical warfare is rampant on American racetracks”.    Such salacious comments create an undeserved negative perception of a sport that is responsible for the employment of over 380,000 people across the country.

There has been much written or claimed about the extent to which professional horse racing has a drug problem.    Surely there is a challenge as equine care has evolved to be more medication reliant in the same way human care has.   Today, legal medications are often prescribed by physicians and veterinarians to improve the health and quality of life for people and animals.   

This conventional reliance on legal medication presents a challenge for racing regulators who must ensure compliance with the rules protecting the public and the horse.   Many who have been widely quoted on this issue have not had access to the data contained in this report.   This data, obtained from state regulatory bodies, represents an unbiased view of the extent to which drug violations actually occur in the sport.

It has long been acknowledged that professional horse racing - thoroughbred, standardbred, and quarter horse contests - are aggressively regulated by the states because pari-mutuel wagering on the outcome of these contests has been an authorized and limited form of gambling originally intended to support rural and agricultural economies.   

The “anti-doping” standards in horse racing are more aggressive than those deployed in the Olympics.   In fact, the worldwide annual drug testing budget of the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) is dwarfed considerably by the collective investment made by the state racing commissions in just one country, the United States.   U.S. state racing commissions commit over $35 million annually to directly test for medication violations.   By comparison, the World Anti-Doping Agency's world-wide effort relies on $26 million in funding.    The financial statements published on their website reveal that of that amount, $1.6 million is specifically earmarked for testing fees.   

Horse racing's anti-doping program tests for more substances at deeper levels than any other professional sport.   These facts are inexplicably ignored by many who wish to opine on this matter and have been successful in drawing attention to their assertions by spinning negative headlines about the sport.  

The perception created is not consistent with the facts.

In 2010, 324,215 biological samples were taken and tested.2    Lab results show that 99.5% of those samples were found to contain no foreign or prohibited substance.   In other words only one half of one percent of samples tested was found to have contained a substance in violation of the rules3.   

An examination of racing commission data also reveals that in those relatively rare instances when a violation of a medication rule does occur, most were associated with a legal substance administered in the normal course of equine care by a licensed veterinarian and cannot be characterized as “horse doping” or as indicative of a “drugging”.   

Those substances that could legitimately be construed as a “horse doping”4 (RCI Classification Categories I and II) represent just 47 instances out of 324,215 samples tested in 2010.    That represents 0.015% of all samples tested.   The use of terms like “rampant”, “endemic”, “widespread”, “chemical warfare”, or “racing's drug addiction” do the sport and the tens of thousands of families who rely on it a great disservice. 

For testing, racing commissions retain professional laboratories who are subject to commission oversight as well as quality assurance programs.      In addition, laboratory findings are subject to review by an independent reference laboratory as well as adjudicatory appeal.   In 2010, as in previous years, we are not aware of any laboratory finding that was determined to be invalid.  

----------------------------------------------- ------------------------

Here is the short reply that I sent to the ACRI about the above article.

  Subject of E-mail to ACRI: "You should allow for comments when you post an article about drug testing."

Considering the large numbers of races run in America each year, it is misleading to cite racing for its greater funding for drug testing compared to the Olympics.

Fact is, and I believe the ACRI would agree, there is need for at least double if not triple the funding for developing tests that deal with Equine Growth Hormones and to develop tests that will find and erradicate drugs that simulate naturally produced hormones and body chemicals that exist within the racehorse. Several reputatable vets have said in confidence that these "natural simulated drugs" are at the heart of modern illegal drug use. Moreover, in the hands of the unscrupulous minority---yes minority---they can be used to stimulate power boosts and/or depressions without present detection while simultaneously altering the playing field in their favor. 

------------------------------------------------ #30#--------------------------------- ---------------------------------

First the good news: Handle and attendance were only down slightly compared to 2010 and track officials were expressing relief over that as well as pointing towards an average field size of 8.4 starters per race, compared 8.2 in 2010.

Purses were up significantly due mostly to the higher takeout imposed on many Del Mar wagering pools, paid for by horseplayers who have fought against the increases in takeout since January 2011 when a boycott was urged to bring home the message.

On some levels, the message came though loud and clear as both Hollywood and Del Mar introduced a Player's Pick Five with a .50 cent minimum bet and a substantially reduced pari-mutuel takeout. The bet not only produced strong play at the windows during both meets, it led Del Mar management to ask the California Horse Racing Board to permit a reduction of the present exorbitant takeouts on several exotic wagers.

The CHRB has refused to take action, primarily because The Thoroughbred Owners of California objected. The TOC, you see is an organization with enormous power in California. When they pushed for the takeout increases they got it; when they strenuously objected to a roll back, they had the CHRB go along with their wishes. Talk about a rubber stamp organization!

Given that the TOC believes that the takeout directly led to the noticeable purse increases, they sooner would disband than agree. Fact is, the TOC at its best believes the takeout increases are central to the health and welfare of California horse owners. At their worst, the TOC and apparently the CHRB could care less if horseplayers are being forced to foot the bill.

While purse increases certainly do help horse owners, it is the position of many horseplayers that the higher takeout will do serious longterm damage to the overall health of the game.

Their arguments against higher takeouts, can be summarized simply:  Higher purses mean less money per bet returned to horseplayers. Less money in the pockets of horseplayers inevitably will mean fewer horseplayers in the game and an eventual downturn in business.

Except for Del Mar, the downturn already has been experienced at Santa Anita and Hollywood. Only the miracle that is Del Mar has saved the 2011 race meet from a similar fate.

In my judgment on this particular issue, I believe that the TOC  does not care at all what happens to horseplayers so long as the TOC gets theirs. Some prominent horse owners and trainers have written me privately to say that the horseplayers against the takeout merely are "losers who are unwilling to look at the faults in their own handicapping." How outrageous; how out of touch with good ole common sense!

In my judgment, the shortsighted policy of the TOC and CHRB will do as the horseplayers' groups predict: More harm will be done to owners in the long term than the short term gains in purses. Frankly I am convinced that if any of the successful businessmen who own horses in California were to attach higher prices to their own products and/or services during this tight economic market, they would go out of business in track record time.

All this aside, there are crucial issues facing California racing that are not going to go away.

The different track surfaces at the three major tracks are causing problems for horses, horsemen and horseplayers.

For instance, the synthetic track at Hollywood Park no longer is a pure Cushion Track. It used to be considered the closest thing to a dirt track among the synthetics. But Santa Anita now has a real dirt track, which admittedly may need some fine tuning. Beyond those issues, Hollywood's racing surface has been over-maintained to such a degree, that no one really knows what to call it or how it is likely to behave when racing returns there this fall.

The Del Mar Polytrack remains subject to the whims of Mother Nature. On cool dry days, it plays fast and reasonably consistent. On hot summer days, the polymers in the Polytrack melt and leave the track slower and uneven. On days when the weather is in transition, good luck folks. You will need it.

 Moreover, how horses will respond to the switch back to dirt at Fairplex and Santa Anita, or to the Cushion Track at Hollywood, no one knows, not even track superintendents.

 And there is more.

Numerous professional and semi professional horseplayers are watching what is going on every day on So Cal racetracks and they are troubled by what they see---to a greater extent than they are bothered by higher takeouts and/or the daily and seasonal shifts in track conditions.

Without  naming names in a situation where names cannot be named, there are several trainers on the So Cal circuit who are winning races at an unprecedented if not suspicious rate. Are they using? Or maybe the question should be:  What are they using?

Suspicions about illegal drugs are rampant not only in California, where the California Horse Racing Board seems to lack the spine to conduct serious and probing investigations. Realistically, such suspicions exist at every track in America and little is being done anywhere to deal with them. This, despite many forward moves against steroids and the on-going conversations about Lasix and Bute. That  “other drugs” are in play continues to make a mockery of the game. Fact is, the insidious nature of illegal drug use for racing purposes is what is negatively impacting the sport more than anything we read or write about.

It manifests itself in at least two repetitive ways:

* Too often we see horses train in an average manner who fire big races a few days later.

* Too often, we see horses claimed by a select handful, improve noticeably in their next starts without any real reason why those horses suddenly improve.

While it never is easy to prove such things, it is equally true that nature alone cannot dictate such miracles.

Is this really happening at beautiful Del Mar by the Sea?

Frankly, the question needs to be rephrased: What makes anyone think it is not happening at Del Mar!

---------------------------------------#30#-------------------------------------- -------------------------

The Travers was Stay Thirsty's first Grade-1 victory to go along with his second place finish in the Belmont Stakes and a recent win in the Jim Dandy Stakes.

Longshot RATTLESNAKE BRIDGE finished second, while second choice SHACKLEFORD finished an exhausted eighth after battling for the lead and third choice COIL barely finished at all, beaten more than 40 lengths without showing any hint of the form that helped him win the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park, July 31.

As expected, Stay Thirsty's Travers victory nearly was overshadowed by his highly fancied stable mate UNCLE MO, who turned in an excellent, but losing effort in the 7 furlong King's Bishop Stakes about 30 minutes before the Travers.

While some who saw both performances, including Mike Repole, who owns them both, might argue that Uncle Mo still is the most talented 3 year old in training, it would be a hollow argument measured against Stay Thirsty's remarkable summer form:

First there was that terrific second place finish in the 1-1/2 mile Belmont Stakes, June 11; followed next Stay Thirsty's four length romp  in the nine furlong Jim Dandy at Saratoga, July 30, a performance  that was topped by Saturday's victory in the 10 furlong Travers.

At this point in the season, it seems remarkable that both of these 3 year old colts have come back from nowhere to become top flight, high class performers. Considerable credit for that must go to trainer Todd Pletcher.

Pletcher may have won hundreds of stakes races and carried home numerous Eclipse Awards for himself and his horses, but you would be hard pressed to find examples of better work in his training career.

Consider:

Uncle Mo was a sensational 2 year old champion, undefeated in his three starts last year.  Moreover, Uncle Mo completely outclassed the talented Boys At Toscanova in the 1-1/16 mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs while earning a 108 Beyer Speed Figure.

To put that BC performance in perspective, you have to go back to Seattle Slew and Spectacular Bid in the late 1970's to find a comparable Beyer Fig for a 2 year old in a Grade-1 stakes at a mile or longer.  He was so impressive, that Uncle Mo left 2010 as a short priced favorite for the 2011 Kentucky Derby and was sincerely viewed as a prospect to become the first horse to sweep the American Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978.

Unfortunately, Uncle Mo lost his momentum towards those goals.  Reality mortis set in shortly after the son of Indian Charlie lost the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct Apr. 9.

 Yet even before that, Uncle Mo did not look to be the same horse in March when our workout analyst Perry Gastis saw the colt train at Palm Meadows. A month later at Churchill Downs, Uncle Mo looked as if a cylinder in his engine was out of tune when our chief clocker Bruno DeJulio saw him in a 5 furlong workout about 10 days before the Kentucky Derby. Bruno was not swayed by the hype when he scooped the competition and prophetically wrote that “all is not well with Uncle Mo.”

Scratched out of the Derby due to a lack of appetite and loss of weight, Uncle Mo was destined to be treated for an intestinal infection linked to a rare liver disease.  It was not until mid July that Pletcher got Vet clearance to resume serious training.

Six official workouts later, Uncle Mo was entered in the Grade-1 King's Bishop against a salty field of 3 year old sprinters, most of whom had won or placed in Graded stakes this year.

 While all this was developing, Uncle Mo's overshadowed stablemate, the forgotten Stay Thirsty,  not only lost the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park by 16 lengths on Apr. 3, he looked like he was running in reverse when 12th of 19 in the Kentucky Derby.

 By any performance based evaluation, Stay Thirsty seemed to be headed for an early retirement after Pletcher employed this handsome son of Bernardini as a foil for Uncle Mo in a series of early season workouts. Uncle Mo was the horse Pletcher believed in; Uncle Mo was going to win the Derby and perhaps sweep the Triple Crown.

Stay Thirsty?

He had been reduced to a $500,000 workmate who might run in a Triple Crown race or two, with minimum hopes and few expectations. He looked ruined, completely used up.

Yet, when Uncle Mo no longer was in the picture, Pletcher began to focus on Repole's second stringer and the results were a tribute to this future Hall of Fame's unbounded horsemanship.

Five weeks after the Derby debacle, Stay Thirsty turned in an amazingly sharp, second place finish in the 1-1/2 mile Belmont Stakes on a rain soaked track that boosted the form of the Belmont winner, Ruler On Ice---a natural wet-track freak.  This was the first good performance by Stay Thirsty since he finished second to the aforementioned Boys At Toscanova in the 7 furlong Hopeful at Saratoga last summer.

In the Belmont, Stay Thirsty remarklbly came to life, racing close to Preakness winner Shackleford through the first 1-1/8 miles, attacking Ruler On Ice along the rail from the 3/8 mile pole all the way to the wire.

How Pletcher turned this colt around from his two horrible performances in April and May to a horse willing to fight every step of the way in the grueling Belmont Stakes is not going to be explained by me, or anyone else, perhaps not even by Pletcher. But it did happen.

We soon found out that it was not a fluke.

 On July 30, Stay Thirsty took another step forward by winning  the nine furlong Jim Dandy by four lengths over Canadian Invader MOONSHINE MULLIN, earning a Beyer Speed figure of 106, the highest this year by a 3 year old in a Graded stakes at one mile or longer. Then on Saturday, in the Travers, Stay Thirsty broke through with a performance at another level.

Racing on or close to the pace every step of the way, Stay Thirsty was forced to use his speed to hold a tenuous forward position between Shackleford and Ruler on Ice, matching strides  with the Preakness and Belmont Stakes winners through fast early fractions ---23.45 for the first quarter and a  half mile in 47.63. They still were together through six furlongs in 1:11.91 and a mile in 1:36.74, before Stay Thirsty put them both away moving through the final turn, taking command of his field entering the stretch.

Although Rattlesnake Bridge was the fresh horse in a rallying mood, Stay Thirsty did not succumb, holding that rival safe to the wire.

Shackleford, so game so often, had hit the proverbial wall and faded back to eighth,  beaten more than 22 lengths. Obviously, Shackleford needs a long rest rather than a program towards the 2011 Breeders' Cup Mile or BC Classic.

Ruler on Ice, third in the recent Haskell Invitational to Coil and Shackleford at Monmouth Park, tired, but did hold on to fourth place after Stay Thirsty dried him out at the top of the stretch.

No doubt, this defeat will turn Ruler on Ice into a longshot for his next race, but I would suggest copying this note about his effort: “If Ruler on Ice shows up when the track is wet, do not hold the Travers against him, He did not fold up in the stretch and can move up many lengths when he gets his track conditions.”

As for Coil---the Bob Baffert trained winner of the Haskell who showed absolutely nothing in the Travers---he had the action of a horse who might need repairs. This was no surprise, given the hints Coil repeatedly gave that he was not a big fan of the Saratoga racing strip. Despite fast clockings in his workouts, even Baffert said more than once that he did not believe the colt enjoyed traveling over it. Back to California goes Coil.

 So let's add things up: Pletcher had a top colt in Uncle Mo get sick on him at the wrong time, but he recovered the colt's potential while bringing him back into a very tough 7 furlong race.

 Make no mistake, the way Uncle Mo swept past half the field while wide on the final turn, was impressive. That he took the lead in the upper stretch and just failed to hold off the hard charging  CALEB'S POSSE in the last stride suggests that Uncle Mo will be a tough customer in the Kelso Handicap at one mile at Belmont Park Oct. 3, and/or the Breeders' Cup Mile on Nov. 5.

 Kudos to Pletcher for his handiwork; but he was not through showing off on Travers Day. Before most of us could digest the way  Caleb's Posse and Uncle Mo  completed the thrilling King's Bishop, the rejuvenated Stay Thirsty turned in his hard hitting performance in the testing 1-1/4 Travers.

Combined, (not to even include the reversal back to top form for the Pletcher trained HILDA'S PASSION in the Grade-1 Ballerina Stakes on the Travers Day card) Pletcher's work with Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty this summer exposed a level of training talent few horsemen ever produce. Truth be told, despite all his stakes wins, despite so much money won  and all his meet titles and assorted trophies, I personally did not think that Todd Pletcher was that good.

Added notes:

* Our contest winners who had $1900 in vouchers to play on the Travers card and $1800 on the Pacific Classic did quite well with some of those free bets.

Our top prize winner had a $500 win-$500 place bet on second place finisher Rattlesnake Bridge who paid a juicy $10.80 to place. Our second place contest winner had $300 win and $300 place on Stay Thirsty, who paid $6.80 and $4.20.

Voucher plays in the Pacific Classic included a  $50 WIN $50 place bet on front running winner, ACCLAMATION, while a another was committed to a $100 Win and $100 Place wager on second place finisher TWIRLING CANDY.

The complete resume and net prize winnings will be posted in my next blog on Thursday AM, delayed by a day due to travel issues. Also, all prize winners will be paid as usual by checks to be sent out on Friday, or no later than next Tuesday by direct wire transfers.

 Please also note that I will be filing my blogs and columns from Del Mar beginning next weekend, when I also will host my annual Del Mar handicapping seminar in front of the grandstand, Sunday, Sept. 4.

 * I mentioned in the above column that Stay Thirsty is a "handsome son of Bernardini." To confirm that, all you have to do is look at the photo of Stay Thirsty on our home page taken by the great Barbara Livingston, whose excellent work appears regularly in that space.

 * We have commissioned the very talented and widely read NY based blogger, Teresa Genaro to contribute wrap up reports from Saratoga beginning this Wed. Aug. 31 through Saratoga's closing day, Monday Sept.  5. Teresa, a schoolteacher in Brooklyn NY with a devoted passion for horse racing has an easy going writing style and her own website, www.Brooklynbackstretch.com that often looks at issues and events central to the Thoroughbred world and NY racing. . . . WWW.GradeOneRacing.com has had an active link to her site since last summer on our news and resources page.

---------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

1-1/16 MILES ON THE OUTER TURF; $200,000, G-1, FOR FILLIES AND MARES.

 

 #7 AVIATE, a Grade-2 winner at Churchill in May, has not fired in last two Grade-1 stakes in NY, but takes a needed class drop after running competitive Speed Figures while making no impact at the Grade-1 level. Shortens up a bit for Billy Mott and Julien Leparoux and can fire big rally when in the mood.

 

----------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------

 

NINTH RACE. . .POST TIME 4:03 PM, EDT. . 1:03 PM, PDT.

 

6 FURLONGS, $100,000 VICTORY RIDE, A GRADE-2 FOR 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES.

 

 Plenty of early speed signed up for this very competitive sprint.

 

 # 6 HOT SUMMER turns back in distance after setting the pace in very good rendition of the Delaware Oaks won by future G-1 Alabama winner ROYAL DELTA, with next out Graded stakes winner BUSTER'S READY finishing second. . .Won prior in one turn mile at Aqueduct and seems best in one turn scenarios, with twov wins in three lifetime tries at this sprint distance.

 

 # 3 AZ WARRIOR was OK third to top flight performers in the Grade-1 SA Oaks. Did win the Grade-1 Frizette Stakes at Belmont last fall and has worked strongly for the return to NY for this one turn sprint. Can fire against the likely speed duel.

 

 #9 ROMAN TREASURE set a strong pace through the middle fractions of the 7 frjlong, G-1 Test Stakes here Aug 6. Won two of five at this distance and has solid speed figures to consider.

 

 ---------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------

 

TENTH RACE. . .POST TIME 4:38 PM, EDT. .1:38 PM, PDT.

 

7 FURLONGS; $250,000 BALLERINA, GRADE-1 FOR FILLIES AND MARES.

 

 #5 DEVIL BY DESIGN returned from a long layoff to win the Grade-3 Chicago Handicap at Arlington for fun, drawing away late after overcoming some traffic issues. Mott trained, can improve and if she does, she certainly can upset these at good odds. Might even be the best value play on the card.

 

 # 3 HILDA'S PASSION disappointed at very short price in the Bed o Roses at Belmont seven weeks ago and has been freshened by Pletcher with improiving workouts to recommend her probable return to very good form.

 

 #7 SASSY'S IMAGE is on an impossible winning streak after overcoming a very slow start and a very wide late rally for her third straight at 6 and 7 furlongs. Will be tough to hold off if she gets some help from a strength sapping pace duel up front.

 

-------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------

 

 ELEVENTH RACE. . .POST TIME 5:12 PM, EDT. . 2:12, PM PDT.

 

7 FURLONGS, $250,000 KING'S BISHOP STAKES, GRADE-1 FOR 3 YR. OLDS.

 

 Can UNCLE MO come back with a powerful win in his return from illness?

Maybe yes, but it pays to bet against that prospect on a longshot or two given the inflation that always comes when there is a heavily backed favorite who has some exposed vulnerabilities.

 

 #1 FLASHPOIINT is the obvious front running target, but I prefer to take a flyer on the longshot shipping in from Southern California:

 

#3 RUNFLATOUT, the Cal shipper who set the pace in the 1-1/16 mile Swaps Stakes at Hollywood in his latest and should appreciate the turn back to 7 panels as well as the return to dirt..

 

 #7 UNCLE MO certainly has been impressive in his recent workouts and he showed such class last year that he merits considerable respect.

 

 #8 COOL BLUE RED HOT has run well enough in longer to think he could be a better colt with this return to a one turn sprint.

 

 Several others definitely figure in this mix, including one turn specialist, CALEB'S POSSE the Ohio Derby winner who came here and romped in the 6-1/2 furlong Amsterdam.

 

------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------

 

TWELFTH RACE. . .POST TIME 5:45 PM, EDT. . .2:45 PM, PM, PDT.

 

The complete field in post position order with program numbers and capsule views of their credentials.

 

 1-1/4 MILES, $1 MILLION TRAVERS STAKES, G-1 FOR 3 YEAR OLDS, ALL CARRY 126 POIUNDS

 

 #1 BOWMAN'S CAUSEWAY just missed winning the 1-3/16 mile Prince of Wales at Fort Erie, but this is not a Canadian bred restricted stakes. If he wins, maybe trainer Chad Brown IS a miracle man.

 

 #2 RATTLESNAKE BRIDGE won the 1-1/16 mile Long Branch stakes as if he has some serious potential. Yet no prep race since that effort and the stretch out to 1-1/4 miles off such a light regimen makes me wonder if he really is ready.

 

 #3 MOONSHINE MULLIN won a moderate stakes on the Polytrack at Woodbine in June then ran OK second to STAY THIRTY at 37-1 in the Jim Dandy here, July 30. Bred to appreciate the route, but must take another two or three steps forward to handle these today.

 

 #4 RULER ON ICE ran a courageous race when he won the Belmont stakes narrowly over STAY THIRSTY. Seemed at his best on that muddy Belmont track and is unlikely to get similar footing here. Still, he is not that far behind some of the others in his exposed talent.

 

 #5 MALIBU GLOW is an allowance winner over the track who beast a good prospect WINDSWEPT that day. Must improve another notch or two to be in the late mix with these.

 

 #6 RAISON D'ETAT has been showing signs that he might live up to his pluperfect royal breeding for distance racing. Billy Mott trained, might be the key to a juicy Trifecta.

 

 #7 COIL, this Bob Baffert trained late developer has never run a bad race and won the Haskell with a very solid late move on the best part of a wide rallying, biased Monmouth track.

 

 Worked fast here, chance to make his rally stick once more for one of the best money trainers of the past quarter century.

 

 #8 J W BLUE, a deep closer with three straight in the money finishes in non Graded stakes in Maryland and Delaware. Takes the blinkers off and is another who might figure in the exotics with slight improvement.

 

 #9 STAY THIRTY, a son of Bernardini who won this race in 2006, suddenly came back to the promising form he displayed at Saratoga last summer after his stable mate UNCLE MO was knocked off the Triple Crown trail. With Todd Pletcher doing some of his best career work, he turned Stay Thirsty around so well that he was a very close second to Ruler On Ice in the Belmont, then trumped that performance with a very good four length victory in the Jim Dandy at 9 furlongs over this track, July 30. . . Working well since that race, must respect.

 

 #10 SHACKLEFORD is a very game persistent speed type who can handle 1-3/16 miles without feeling the strain, but after that it is who knows? Certainly looks like he can control the pace if able to shake loose from his outer post, or maybe he will stalk and go when asked on the final turn. Either way, will take some catching in the lane.

 

 Selections:

 

#9 STAY THIRSTY, worth a play as a Trifecta key.

 

#10 SHACKELFORD, very game, speed of the field and the early dirt races on the travers Day card have played storngly towards early speed. 

 

#6 RAISON D'ETAT, bred for it, top trainer, may improve right here.

 

# 7 COIL, might be good enough, but I'm betting against.

 

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Good Luck and Good Handicapping. I'll be back with a review of the day's races later tonight and next weekend through Sept. 7 I'll be trackside at Del Mar for their great closing week programs.

 

Already, Monmouth Park, nestled in a cove near the well named town of Oceanport, NJ---about 55 miles south of Staten Island and another 60 north of Atlantic City--- wisely has cancelled racing Saturday and Sunday! Likewise, it would not be a big surprise if Saratoga—about 170 miles northwest of waters underneath the Verrazano Bridge, is forced to do the same.

All these legit weather warnings that accompany what is being called the most severe Hurricane to hit the Northeast in a half Century, may not affect the races on Travers Day but we should expect a drop in the expected attendance.

Instead of a likely crowd of 55,000+, the incoming storm could cost the NYRA 10-15,000 fans. Many, including regular Saratoga players, are planning to abandon ship tonight through early Saturday, before the 13 race Travers Day card, gets rolling at 11:35 AM, EDT.

 Among those heading out of here is DRF Publisher Steven Crist, who reluctantly said he will be heading downstate Saturday to avoid the heavy winds and rains sure to screw up traffic south to NYC and New Jersey.

Crist will not be alone trying to make an early getaway.

Fire a Grade 3+ hurricane into this heavily populated region--- flanked by so much water---and we can expect some NY City roads to become small rivers. Ditto for many of the most popular subway stops connecting NY with its five boroughs. New Jersey will not get off easy either. Not with its 190 miles of coastline  facing a raging Atlantic Ocean.

Crist and his talented wife Robin, (the extraordinary editor for DRF Press who did such an a amazing job on my ‘Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing' published in 2007 and ‘Betting Thoroughbreds for the 21st Century' published in 2009) live about five miles east of Belmont Park in Garden City, Long Island.  They are heading south quickly to secure their beautiful home before it is attacked by the whirling wild winds of Irene as she becomes nature's most violent version of a woman scarred for revenge.

I am also headed out of here Sunday morning to rendevoux with my long time friend June Davila who is in the Finger Lakes today visiting friends. But we will not be rendezvousing here, but 100 miles further inland so we can navigate a mid-state path to White Plains, NY through state and county roads a long way from the heavily traveled NY State Thruway, sure to be a rain soaked parking lot by Sunday afternoon.

In the meantime, all 10 horses entered for the Travers are set to go and the track conditions should be close to perfect for the classic 1-1/4 mile race most of us call ‘the mid summer's Derby.'

Look for my blog entry tomorrow at noon, EDT for my rundown of each horse in this important $1 million race that could determine the 3 year old championship.

There also will be some thoughts on the other stakes on the Travers Day card, which offers a $1 million guaranteed Pick Four involving four of the day's five stakes.

I can only urge all readers to check our Saratoga, Aug. 27 WORKOUT REPORT. 

It includes a veritable bushel of solid reports for the vast majority of horses entered all day.  The same should be said on behalf of the Performance Notes and Lauren Stich's exceptional pedigree insights included every day with our Equibase generated entries.

But before we sign off today, I have to riff a bit on what happened at Saratoga Thursday regarding the move ‘off the turf to the main track' for the last three races on that card. Frankly, I still cannot believe what happened as the single most absurd betting related rule I've seen at any track in my lifetime came into play—automatically!

It all started when heavy rains came flooding down on Saratoga about midway through the Thursday, Aug. 25 racing card.

Saratoga's strong voiced, track announcer, Tom Durkin----a sure fire Hall of Famer if ever a Hall of Fame is created for track announcers----began his litany of scratches that occurred when the final three races were taken off the turf to the increasingly wet main track.

Among his scratch-announcements----Durkin explained what was going to happen to the pick six, pick four and Grand Slam wagers as forced by the automatic implementation of a convoluted, exceedingly  complicated rule authored by the New York State Racing and Wagering Board.

Giving the details as patiently as he could, Durkin could not avoid a muffled chuckle and a touch of sarcasm as he explained that 75 percent of the $250,000  that had been bet into the Thursday Pick Six, now would be removed from that pick six pool and carried over to the Friday Pick Six.

 What was that? Did I hear that right? 75 percent of a quarter million dollars being tossed into the Friday pick six without any concern for those who put that much monry into the Thursday pool?

This was, remember, after the first three races in the Thursday pick six sequence had been run.

Also remember, that the last three races had been taken off the turf after pick six betting had closed.

Using round figures, please consider that every player who successfully picked all three winners in the first three pick six races---including many who had wagered serious sums---now would have to be satisfied with playing for relative peanuts compared to the expectation they had when they began to chase the $58,000 carryover on the table from Wednesday's pick six.

 How much smaller then, was the net pot for Thursday pick six players who invested the original $250,000?

 Here is the math:

The $250,000 live money pick six pool for Thursday was reduced as usual by the 25 percent takeout, which left about $188,000 on the table plus the $58,000 from the day before. But now, the convoluted, complicated NYSRWB rule reduced the $188,000 portion of the Thursday pick six pool by 75 percent, which left only $47,000 to be won by Thursday's pick six players!

 Roughly, that meant about $135K was removed from the $188,000 net Thursday pool and sent over to the Friday card along with the $58K (Wednesday to Thursday and now to Friday) carryover to create a new combined carryover of about $193,000 for Friday.

 So if you are still with me and I do not blame you if you got lost somewhere in the mechanics of this convoluted, complicated rule, the Thursday pick six players who hit the first three races in the sequence were now going to split up only $47,000 not $188K!

Aside from this legalized robbery, players who wagered into NY's strange four race bet called the ‘Grand Slam'--- a bet that requires three winning show picks, plus the race winner in the day's feature event----now were told by an embarrassed Tom Durkin, that all Grand Slam wagers did not count and refunds would !be made for all who played this strange bet. This after the first two races had been run in the Grand slam sequence. Incredible!

 Consider: If you successfully had picked the first two horses who finished third or better and believed you now were holding live Grand Slam tickets for the next show wager AND the final Grand Slam win play, you were dead wrong.  All you would get is a refund for your Grand Slam Wagers.

Worse still, if you lost one of the first two legs and threw your Grand Slam tickets away, you were throwing away tickets that could have been cashed for a straight up refund!

On one hand, the convoluted, complicated NYSWB betting rule turned about 75 percent of the $250,000 that had been wagered into Thursday's pick six, into dead money and a larger carryover for Friday. On the other, all Grand Slam wagers deserved a much better fate than a mere refund.

Bottom line?

Sometimes it is hard to believe how racing officials, so hungry for positive publicity, can enact and defend such crazy, anti-player rules designed to encourage people to shoot off their toes. No check that, it is much closer to the truth to point out that the racing officials who designed this convoluted, very complicated, almost completely insane rule, were the ones taking dead aim at their feet.

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Hall of Fame trainer Billy Mott apparently had ROYAL DELTA ready for a big leap forward in her form, as that filly by Empire Maker rallied past front running PLUM PRETTY and the pace pressing IT'S TRICKY to easily win the 1-1/4 mile Alabama Stakes at Saratoga today.

When jockey Jose Lezcano  moved Royal Delta strongly from her safe stalking position to challenge It's Tricky nearing the final furlong, the race was over in a split second. Frankly, Royal Delta was able to increase her margin of superiority to 5-1/2 lengths as Lezcano merely showed her the whip through the last 100 yards.

 As the 5-1 fifth betting choice in the select field of six 3 year old fillies, Royal Delta was running to her stout breeding and to her purposeful training to improve dramatically over her recent third place finish to It's Tricky in the nine furlong Coaching Club American Oaks over this track on July 23.

Longshot PINCH PIE finished third a length further back while a tired Plum Pretty faded to fourth, nine lengths behind the winner.

The two noted stretch runners in the field---ST. JOHN'S RIVER and the Canadian INGLORIOUS never were in contention, both were hampered by the slow pace, but Inglorious had other issues, including perhaps a possible hidden injury and/or a dramatic disdain for Saratoga's dirt racing surface. Inglorious was so far back through much of the contest that it can be said with confidence that this winner over males in the Queen's Plate at Woodbine, did not run anywhere near her top race.

The fractional splits throughout were 24.54 for the first quarter; a slow 49.37 for the half mile; a fast enough 1:13.12 for three quarters and an even faster 1:37.05 for the mile before Royal Delta completed the full 1-1/4 mile distance in a modest 2:03.13 on a track that was labeled fast, but still retained some moisture from the rains earlier in the week.  

Of key importance was the fact that Royal Delta really turned on the jets when she went from third to a close second while It's Tricky was moving to Plum Pretty as they both clicked off a half mile blitz in 47.74 give or take a few hundreds of a second. 

 In the Coaching Club American Oaks,  that ‘middle move' helped It's Tricky catch and wear down Plum Pretty; but in this case, she was spent by the time the improving Royal Delta got to her approaching the final furlong.

From an historical perspective, The Alabama Stakes, as always, was a fine prelude to next Saturday's Travers which will be run at the same 1-1/4 mile distance. Frankly, if the Travers is affectionately known as the "Mid Summer Derby," then the Alabama deserves to be nicknamed the "Mid Summer Classic for 3 year old fillies."

For so many years the Alabama has provided a prestigious forum for the best 3 year old fillies in America.  In fact, it is the only Grade-1 race on an American dirt track for sophomore fillies at the 1-1/4 mile distance.

It has been won by champions in every decade since August Belmont's WOODBINE won the first Alabama in 1872.

Included among the greats I saw win this race in my life as a horseplayer were: Darby Dan Farm's PRIMONETTA, who won in my first visit here in 1961; GAMELY in ‘67, SHUVEE in ‘69; SUMMER GUEST  in ‘72; LIFE'S MAGIC in '84; MOM'S COMMAND in '85; OPEN MIND in '89; GO FOR WAND in' 90; SKY BEAUTY in '93; HEAVENLY PRIZE in '94; SILVER BULLETDAY in ‘99 and BLIND LUCK  last year.

Of all those races, I was most impressed by Blind Luck's last to first, gut wrenching victory over her arch rival HARVE DE GRACE, a race that not only confirmed their intense rivalry but affirmed Blind Luck as a future Hall of Fame racehorse.

This year's Alabama involved only six fillies, but going into the race, five of them ranked among the top contenders for an Eclipse Award as the best of their age and sex in 2011.

Leaving the winner's circle this afternoon, Royal Delta probably moved past pro tem leader It's Tricky as the favorite to win that season ending trophy just as she moved past her in the stretch on Saturday.

As for Travers week news. . .Preakness winner SHACKLEFORD worked five furlongs in 1:00.87 breezing over Saratoga main track with jockey Jesus Castanon aboard (seventh fastest of 37 workouts at the distance). Reported fractions were 36.24, 1:00.87, as Shackleford galloped out in 1:14.40 for six furlongs. Our veteran Workout Analyst on the scene will describe what he saw in this work---when entries are formally announced for the Travers later this week.

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Some deep background however, is in order:

Reporting of workouts—more specifically, analyzing them the same way a baseball scout analyzes a pitching prospect's throwing speed---is a skill very few horseplayers ever develop. Moreover, trainers who work with dozens of horses every day, historically have regarded workouts as their private domain. Official clockers believe the same. . .So, any effort by anyone outside the inner circle to provide more than the bare finishing times published on the work tab, is guaranteed to meet resistance.

In Southern California, where horses are identified in most cases a lot more accurately than in any other racing state, there also is a tradition that permits private clockers and journalistic publications to provide workout analysis.

National Turf, an Internet based publication run by Bob Selvin as well as Today's Racing Digest are two such California based publications that have been providing workout analysis for more than twenty years.

Our Chief Clocker Bruno DeJulio worked for Todays' Racing Digest for more than 16 years and before that provided the short lived ‘Racing Times' with published workout analysis, as I did for that same paper while covering the 1991 Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup. Before that I regularly filed workout reports for the Star Tribune of Minneapolis, the St Petersburg Times, the Oakland Tribune and Philadelphia Inquirer all the way back into the 1970's.

In every case, as Bruno will attest, ‘official clockers' who at the time were paid directly by Daily Racing Form and/or the tracks themselves, provided ample cooperation. The legendary “Frenchy” Schwartz was responsible for this openness, as he, the DRF's head clocker, insisted upon accurate clockings and no private dealings with trainers or clients. “The betting public deserves honest reporting of these workouts,” Schwartz said.

During that era, which lasted into the 1980's, clockers regularly provided the public with fractional clockings; workouts in company, and other tidbits that proved to be invaluable to all horseplayers.

DRF in fact published workout commentary under the work tabs for every track in the country. I even published several examples of how to use that info for handicapping purposes in the first version of my book, Betting Thoroughbreds, published by E.P. Dutton in 1978.

What was the harm? Not a thing, I say.

It helped people understand more about training techniques than anything I've seen in 34 years in print or on television. Yet today, all of the clocker comments are gone from DRF and Equibase work tabs. Only Keeneland publishes interpretative commentary about horses working on its Polytrack surface, for which we appreciate as a web site and as horseplayers.

When we went to Churchill Downs last fall, the CD based clockers were not crazy about our presence even though I had great rapport with all the clockers during the aforementioned years as we occasionally helped each other  when sheer numbers threatened to bring about many missing works.

Without fear of contradiction, I was the only credentialed reporter clocking horses for the Derby in the Spring and the Breeders' Cup in the fall. And I did my work from the clocker's stand, while helping Churchill management realize that workout coverage was something they ought to try to provide the race going public. I even advised CD track officials that the horsemen themselves could use more space—a porch if you will—that would permit more people to actually see workouts in progress.

My first year doing this was in 1977 and the usually reticent Hall of Fame trainer Leroy Jolley gave me some personal instruction on what I should be looking at, just as he looked at it. Billy Turner Jr. who trained Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew and Laz Barrera, who trained Triple Crown winner Affirmed, both picked up where Jolley left off and added considerable depth to my education as a workout analyst.

It was exciting stuff and it did not take me long to realize that workout analysis was something that should go far beyond improving my own personal handicapping. Just as 'Frenchy' had said, workout information would help bring the betting public closer to the true inner workings of the sport.

Bruno,  sensing a far different attitude amongst official clockers last fall, did not need to be prompted to take his excellent eyes and his accurate stopwatch along with two clockers we were training over to the Churchill Downs' grandstand to do his work, far removed from the clocker's stand. From that point forward, G1-R.com Workout Analysts began to provide our subscribers with some of the most effective analysis ever published.

What harm did it cause? Not a thing.

Our readers made better plays; some improved their overall handicapping as a direct result of what we were publishing and we were praised by several Breeders' Cup trainers who saw our reports. Six months later, we were praised again by Derby trainers and owners who read what we had to say about ANIMAL KINGDOM (very positive) , DIALED IN (not so good)  and UNCLE MO (something definitely is wrong, 'should not run in the Derby!)

After the fall CD meet, one of our trainees went to Florida to turn in similarly fabulous workout reports at Gulfstream Park and the Palm Meadows training facility.

But gaining access in Florida, at least to the Palm Meadows training facility was not simply a matter of flashing our Gulfstream credentials. For more than a decade the clocker there had run the workout scene as if it was his own private pinball machine. Handicappers of considerable skill who live there said in fact we never would gain access, because no one before us had done so.

But I appealed directly to Gulfstream and Magna Inc management to change the policy. My basic case was this: Why not let us in, to help let the public in, to provide more openness.

To their credit, they listened and took less than a week to agree that there was nothing to hide and that we would not interfere with the Palm Meadows' clocker in any way, but would provide our own reports to the web site, as credentialed members of the working press.

No less a voice for the public than Andy Beyer praised our Florida based workout coverage in private and in public forums.  

We received similar praise at every track we have ventured into, including the Fair Grounds, where we only made a token appearance and have subsequently been invited by FG officials to come there to do our work this fall. We are considering that, pending financial issues that we are trying to resolve.

Make no mistake, it costs serious money to put talented Workout Analysts at a track many miles from home. And before they go on assignment, every Clocker-Workout Analyst we hire has to train under Bruno DeJulio and be approved by me.

At the one year mark since www.GradeOneRacing.com was born, the only tracks where we have experienced official resistance are the NYRA tracks. But part of the reason for that, we believe was that the Palm Meadows clocker also was in charge of the Saratoga training track, where we encountered his wrath last fall.

Here is what happened:

After the regular Saratoga summer meet ended, our ‘clocker' at Saratoga wanted to file workout  reports from the Sar. training track. There still were 1,000 horses stabled at Saratoga, including many trained by Hall of Famers Todd Pletcher, Nick Zito and Billy Mott.  Most of the time they worked their stock on the training track.

But during the regular Sar meet, Zito apparently precipitated an incident when he lost via the claim box, a first time starter he trained after that horse easily won a $75K maiden claiming race.

Zito, I am told was furious and blamed the Sar training track clocker for leaking information, information that he believed led to the horse being claimed.

In turn, the Sar training track clocker blamed G1-R.com's workout analyst and publicly turned on him and told him to leave the clocker's stand. When I was informed about this, I told our representative to leave the scene and not raise any kind of fuss, because we would address this issue at Gulfstream and in the spring of 2011. The season was winding down, so why get embroiled in such a dispute at the wrong time.

That aside, the simple fact is this: Our workout analyst was nowhere near the clocker stand on the day Zito's horse worked!

Secondly, it certainly can be argued that Zito himself was out of line. After all, he entered a fast, well bred first time starter at a bargain basement price. Was he really expecting a free pass? Whose fault was it that other trainers were watching when this horse worked?

Beyond the incident itself, which I described to important NYRA officials, the following statement was made directly to me during Belmont week, when I sought a resolution to the problem:

“This is amazing, Steve,” the high ranking official said. “But it shows that workouts still are the underbelly of racing.”

 After I further described what we do at every track we cover, I was told that the matter would be resolved in our favor “within a week.”

Yet, six weeks went by before we gained entry to NYRA tracks to conduct our workout analysis, which is why many of you have wondered what has been happening and why I am explaining all this to you. . . .Frankly, I am personally grateful for your patience and the dozens of supportive E-Mails you sent regarding this aspect of our coverage. . .The past is prelude as they say, so we are grateful  for the NYRA credentials and will live by the restrictions that come with it.

At the bottom line, we are back in action at Saratoga and at Belmont Park too. We will watch and evaluate how horses based in NY move through their training drills. We will report on which horses seem to have energy in reserve; which ones work in company;  which ones finish strongly, or weakly; who gallops out well, or poorly and who comes back to the track a couple of days after a meaningful workout and looks as if the work helped or hurt its physical condition.

Our Workout Analysts  have great skill and in most cases extensive experience, including some as licensed horse trainers. In all cases, they  have been schooled to identify the key elements cited above.

And yes, we are proud of providing this coverage at Saratoga and Belmont, at all three Southern Cal tracks, at Gulfstream and Palm Meadows, at Keeneland, Churchill Downs and any track we send our people to cover. www.GradeOneRacing.com is trying to make a positive contribution to the sport as a whole.

We are committed to providing good handicapping information with this function as well as through our other features: Pedigree Analysis; Performance Notes; Track Bias Notations and our powerful Preferred Performers lists. We do not tout; we do not provide our reports to anyone other than subscribers.

We believe that an informed wagering public is great for the game and that people actually will wager more than they usually do with more good handicapping info. We believe that the NYRA and every other track in America can bet on that.

So let's get on now to Saratoga (& Del Mar) and play the best gambling game man has ever invented with the best handicapping tools anyone has ever published.

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IMPORTANT ADDED NOTE: July 24, is the First  Anniversary of www.GradeOneRacing.com

To celebrate that and the opening of Del Mar and Saratoga we're offering a FREE ENTRY to our July 30-July 31 Handicapping Contest  to all Seasonal and Yearly subscribers as well as to new subscribers who purchase our special $125 SARATOGA-DEL MAR full meet package open NOW for purchase through Thursday,  July 28!

 PRIZES WILL INCLUDE BETTING VOUCHERS WORTH UP TO $2000+
      PRIZES WILL BE AWARDED TO THE TOP 10 FINISHERS
This is a terrific opportunity to use your handicapping skill to turn this prize into many thousands of dollars, just as the winner of our Derby Fantasy Contest who won $18,875 with $500 Win-$500 place  on Ruler on Ice in the Belmont Stakes!

In this July 30-July 31 Handicapping Contest, FIRST PRIZE will include two such '$500 Win-$500 Place' betting vouchers to the contest winner to be placed on both the Travers Stakes Aug. 27 and the Pacific Classic, Aug. 28!

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Welcome to a fabulous July 4 weekend of Graded stakes races at three of the best racetracks in America--Churchill Downs, Belmont Park and Hollywood. And Happy 236th Birthday to the greatest country on earth and to this web site that will reach its first birthday later this month.
 
As indicated in the stakes included in this July 4 package, only one will be for 3 year olds, the division that relentlessly occupied our interest from January through the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes. That race is the $150,000, Grade-2 Dwyer at 1-1/16 miles at Belmont on Saturday
 
While not a single horse in the seven horse field can be eliminated safely--which is nothing new for 3 year old stakes races this year---there are two established Graded stakes horses in the Dwyer and one moving up in class who intrigues me for his upset potential.
 
The two proven Graded stakes types who will be seeking credentials to move on to the $1 million Haskell Invitational at Monmouth and/or or the $1 million Travers Stakes at Saratoga, are: #7 ADIOS CHARLIE and #2 DOMINUS.
 
Dominus was a strong second in the one mile, Grade-3 Derby Trial Stakes at Churchill Downs on April 30 and has had several good workouts at Churchill Downs for this.
(We've been covering Churchill works since opening day of the meet right up through this weekend.)
 
Adios Charlie won the Grade-2 Jerome at one mile in April at Aqueduct and was tiring late when narrowly defeated in the nine furlong Peter Pan over this track seven weeks ago. That performance suggests that 'Charlie' might appreciate the slight cut back to this 1-1/16 miles distance . If it should rain, he certainly has a big wet track Beyer Fig.
 
Yet, I am intrigued by the 6-1 morning line #6 COOL BLUE RED HOT, an Angle Penna Jr. trainee making his stakes debut after defeating older horses in a solid allowance race at the Dwyer distance last month. Penna has done Hall of Fame work for decades yet lacks the big name horse to catapult him into the national spotlight.
 
In case you have been wondering where and when we would begin to see good 2 year olds, well we are three weeks away from Saratoga and Del Mar and we have three Graded stakes on Saturday and Sunday which should help identify the most precocious juveniles based in the east.
 
In the Grade 3, $100,000 Bashford Manor at Churchill Downs on Saturday, Lone Star invader, #2 LIL CHEROKEE may be the only stakes winner among the 11 entered, but he will be meeting a different brand of horse in this traditional CD stakes.
 
#3 POWER WORLD was quite impressive winning his maiden  sprint at 4-1/2 furlongs last month, coming from dead last after a poor start to win driving clear.
 
And if he winds up in this seemingly tougher spot, # 4 EXFACTOR and #7 SUM OF THE PARTS  were nearly as impressive and raced much faster winning their respective debuts over the track while the horse I* like best #9 TARPY'S GOAL, looked strong in the final furlong in a moderately clocked maiden win at 5 furlongs,  May 15. That is in fact often a good indicator that a young, inexperienced horse is going to improve his or her speed figures at longer sprint distances. Moreover, Tarpy's Gold has worked sharply over the track for the talented Dale Romans and is cross entered in the $150,000 Futurity at Belmont Park on Sunday, so no one but trainer Dale Romans knows where he will wind up.
 
 
In the $150,000, Grade-2 Matron at Belmont, on Sunday,   there are shippers from Delaware, Charles Town, Monmouth Park, Colonial Downs and Pimlico, while the NY based juvenile fillies are well represented by #2 BORN BULLISH, a nine length winner in her career debut on June 24, just 11 days ago and #7 HOOK IT UP, who also won her only start in slow time.
 
Frankly, the lack of seasoning in this early season stakes, suggests that trainer John Terranova believes that Be Bullish can improve upon her relatively slow debut win to handle this group. That is one clear reason why he has put her back into this race so quickly. On sheer speed figures, the two who seem to be ones Be Bullish will have beat are the Pimlico shipper #6 DEFY GRAVITY and the Monmouth shipper #3 SAY A NOVENA.
 
In the $150,000, G-2  Futurity on the same Sunday card,  there are no horses who made their bones in NY. There are, in fact,  six juveniles from six different tracks: Calder, Monmouth, Pimlico, Churchill, Woodbine and Delaware Park.
 
Among the most impressive to date has been the aforementioned #5 TARPY'S GOAl,  the Dale Romans trainee who was cross entered in Saturday's Bashford Manor at Churchill.  I think I will play this sprint bred son of High Cotton wherever he runs.The rest in this light field, you can have.
 
Back on the Saturday card at Belmont, the feature race is the Grade- 2,  $300,000 Suburban Handicap, for 3 year olds and up at 1-11/8 miles around one turn. While this race used to be part of the New York Triple Crown for handicap horses---a series won by the mighty Kelso in the 1960's both the Suburban and Brooklyn Handicaps have lost prestige while the Met Mile has retained its world class standing in the sport.
 
For $300,000, one would have expected a better field than we see in this 125th anniversary of the historic Suburban.
 
While there is nothing wrong with #1 RODMAN, who finished a respectable second to TIZNOW in the swiftly run Met Mile on May 30, Rodman has had difficulty winning anything above the Grade-3 level.
 
The same is true for #2 CALIZEO who was second to APART in the Grade-3 Donald Schaefer at Pimlico May 21. He too has preferred weaker company to carry his front running speed to the wire. Ditto for stretch running #3 CONVOCATION and #5 FLAT OUT, both of whom usually get a piece of the purse in lower level Graded stakes and allowance races.
 
Only one other horse ---# 4 ICABAD CRANE--- is a proven Graded stakes performer. Third in his latest behind Calizeo in the Donald Schaefer, Icabad Crane has the most notable lifetime credential, having finished third in the 2008 Preakness.
 
Given this relatively weak group, there is reason to focus upon the Shug McGaughey trained #6 HYMN BOOK as he steps up in class with the top recent Beyer Speed Figure seeking his second straight at this distance on this track. Frankly, in evaluating every horse in the Suburban, I think some of the 3 year olds in the Dwyer would embarrass this group.
 
Although not advertised as part of our Fourth of  July Weekend Special Package, I would be remiss if I did not give the $750,000, G-1 United Nations Handicap a close look for this preview of Graded stakes on the July 4 weekend.
 
The 1-3/8 miles UN, is one of best grass races in the world and has been won by some of the top turf horses in American racing history including renown Hall of Famers--- ROUND TABLE, MONGO, DR. FAGER, MANILA and  LURE to name just a handful.
 
This year's edition includes last year's winner #9 CHINCHON, Breeders' Cup Marathon winner #4 ELDAAFER, western based #2 BOURBON BAY, who will break from the rail due to the Patrick Biancone trained entry of #1 PULSION and his stable mate #1A BELLE WAITING, the mare who won eight of 13 turf races in her native Chile prior to her American debut in February, 2011.
 
Also in the field is #3 TEAKS NORTH, winner of the Grade 3 Monmouth Stakes on June 12, an obvious prep race for this longer and higher class contest.
 
Of these good turf horses, the one that catches my eye is Bourbon Bay, who prepped for this race with a useful third in the Grade-1 Whittingham Handicap at Hollywood three weeks ago. Prior to that, Bourbon Bay had some unusual issues when badly outrun in the $5 million Dubai Sheema Classic at the Meydan racecourse. Mar. 27.
 
Bourbon Bay had in fact, won five Graded turf stakes prior to that debacle, plus a second and third. Trained by Neil Drysdale, our erstwhile clocker and workout analyst Bruno DeJulio pointed out in his workout comments for Bourbon Bay's 7 furlong work on June 5 clocked in 1:26-4/5,  that he had been "bitten by insects in Dubai, which caused a swelling in the 5 year old's legs. So Bruno says,. "throw out the Dubai effort."  
 
Moreover in that 7 furlong workout in company with GOTHC SAMURAI, he also said that Bourbon Bay "flew here in the last six furlongs and had a "big finish in 23.1 for the final quarter, Nice!"
 
In addition to the considerable purse, the UN is a Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" race that automatically will give a starting berth to the $3 million Breeders' Cup Turf at Churchill Downs, Nov. 5. This year, that phrase actually means something: This year a win-and-you're-in victory will include the BC entry fees and $10,000 in travel expenses.
 
Moving back to the Sunday card at Belmont, the Todd Pletcher trained #6 HILDA'S PASSION seems to tower over the field in the G-2,  $150,000  Bed o' Roses Handicap for fillies and mares at 7 furlongs. Winner of five of her last seven, 'Hilda' smoked a similar field in the G-2 Vagrancy under 123 pounds at 6-1/2 furlongs and will carry 124 in this race that will test her an additional 1/16 miles. While no horse is a guaranteed, can-not-lose-cinch and every horse race is subject to unveil unforeseen issues, 'Hilda' is rated at 1-5 odds in the morning line and probably will attract 'bridge jumper' money in the show pool.
.
On Monday, July 4 at the same NY track, the Grade-1, $250,000 Prioress for 3 year old fillies at 6 furlongs will have at least six fast fillies who were impressive in their most recent outings. The one to beat seems to be the Bob Baffert trained #5 ALIENATION who ships in from California with good workout reports for her turn back in distance and her drop in class. #4 QUANTAM MISS and #2 ROMAN PLEASURE have run the fastest races this year, but as I said no horse in the lineup can be discounted.
 
At Hollywood Park on Saturday July 2, the Grade-1 $300,000 Shoemaker Mile on the turf, the top contenders have Breeders' Cup Mile possibilities, most notably #1 COURAGEOUS CAT, the Billy Mott trained 5 yr old who finished second to three time BC Mile winner GOLDIKOVA in that $2 million BC race last year.
 
This is no easy spot, however, as front running #7 LIBERIAN FREIGHTER can be a dangerous foe at this distance on this course and also can stalk the pace when in the mood. In addition, last year's winner #6 VICTOR'S CRY is in the field, making his first start since running fifth of 16 in the Dubai Duty Free at 1-1/8 miles on Mar. 26.
 
Any examination of 'Victor' will point out that he is far more comfortable at this one mile distance and the turn back fits him to a T. Moreover, as reported by our terrific clockers headed by Bruno DeJulio, Victor's workout line for trainer Eoin Harty has been exceptional and the same is true for the somewhat enigmatic #5 CARACORTADO, who has hinted at G-1 talent for this surface, but has acted as if a mile might be half a furlong too short.
 
Of these, Courageous Cat probably has a slim pre race edge, but I will strongly consider taking a shot on Victor's Cry, who often is undervalued by the wagering public.
 
On the same card, a pair of hard hitting sprinters---#3 SMILING TIGER and #7 AMAZOMBIE--- will square off in the Grade-1, $250,000 Triple Bend Handicap for older horses at 7 furlongs.
 
Smiling Tiger was badly hampered by traffic issues when sixth in the 7 furlong, Grade-2 Churchill Downs Handicap on Kentucky Derby Day and has been given more time to rest and recover his form than he usually gets. Frankly, he has worked sensationally in recent weeks and is the type of performer who can benefit from a break in racing and shipping.  I like him today.
 
Amazombie, on the other hand has been solid in recent stakes over this track this year. He's certainly no pushover and might even go favored because of his local performance record.
 
On Monday, July 4, at Hollywood, top fillies and mares will go a mile on the turf in the Grade-2, $150,000 Royal Heroine and the Tom Proctor trained #2 WILD MIA, along with the John Shirreffs trained #2 HARMONIOUS and #6 CELTIC PRINCESS have the most obvious form for the distance and class, but #5 GIVINE, is a dangerous French import who won a six furlong turf race here for Julio Canani who is one of the best trainers of turf milers in America.
 
What jumps off the page at me is the fact that Givine finished her 6 furlong victory on this turf course over moderate company May 29, and as stated in our exclusive PERFORMANCE NOTES, that supplement past performances and result charts, we caught her final quarter mile in a red hot 22-2/5. That kind of finishing speed is just what Canani was looking for and he steps her up to a top level mile race knowing that Givine was a miler in Europe.
 
On closing day Monday at Churchill, the feature will be the Grade 2, $175,000 Firecracker Handicap at one mile on the grass for older horses, including several who have performed well in various Graded Stakes this year and in 2010.
 
#1 GENERAL QUARTERS was in fact, a Grade-1 winner on this course at 1-1/8 miles last year and prepped for his return to turf stakes with a sharp second in a recent 7 furlong sprint on the main track.
 
The 5 year old #7 BARYSHNIKOV was a good front running second in the nine furlong Dixie, a Grade-2 at Pimlico on the Preakness card last month. He obviously will take some catching, but there are others in the field who could soften him up.
 
Two more contenders are #4 EL CABALLO and #5 MYSTIC.
 
El Caballo returns to his best surface -turf--after an allowance win in May and a weak try in the Grade-1 Stephen Foster last month.
 
The Billy Mott trained Mystic has gradually improved while competing in allowance company and while he was very wide when third to  #3 MR MARTI GRAS on June 3 here, any further improvement puts him right there.
 
At the bottom line, General Quarters looks to be in the right spot at the right time at a fair and square price. I definitely will use him as my Trifecta key in the first and second positions as I try to pay for all the hot dogs and burgers on the outdoor grill here in Las Vegas where the weather is hot (and thankfully dry), the action is fast and the track is a short walk or drive away to one of at least 40 race books.
 
For non Nevada residents, there is plenty of live action at tracks from coast to coast and all wagers can be conveniently played via your phone or computer at www.Twinspires.com which is offering our members special deals for signing up. Check them out.
 
Happy Independence Day,
 
Happy First Birthday to www.gradeoneracing.com

In Honor of the dual celebration, GradeOneRacing.com proudly presents a Double Anniversary Special!

* A comprensive Fourth of July weekend package filled with our exclusive handicapping infomation.

https://www.gradeoneracing.com/subscribe.htm

* A potentially lucrative Handicapping Contest, the 7th lucrative contest held on this site since we launched July 24, 2010.

http://www.gradeoneracing.com/contests/saratogadelmar.htm

The July 4 Weekend Package will include Chief Clocker Bruno DeJulio's popular Workout –Stakes Race blog, that
gave readers all the insights they needed to cash big time on ANIMAL KINGDOM at 21-1 in the Kentucky Derby,
a blog that also pointed out that both UNCLE MO and DIALED IN  were not at their best before the former was
scratched from the Derby and the latter failed to run anywhere near his best in the Derby and Preakness.

This Special July 4 Weekend Package will include FREE ENTRY to the July 30-31 Handicapping Contest on Saratoga and Del Mar races that will feature Betting Vouchers worth $100 to $2000 to the top 10 finishers, all to be played on the
Travers Stakes at Saratoga, Aug. 27, and/or the Pacific Classic at Del Mar on Aug. 28.

The July 4 Weekend package also will be FREE to our current Seasonal and Yearly Subscribers and is priced at $25 for Charter Members, Newcomers and current Non Subscribers. There also will be a bonus benefit for any of our original
3,200 Charter Members who purchase this Special Package, a bonus that will be E-mailed during the Anniversary Contest.

In addition to Bruno De Julio's Special Holiday Workout Blog, the July 4 Weekend Package will include all our exclusive,
handicapping information for the 11 Graded Stakes scheduled for Saturday July 2, Sunday July 3 and Monday July 4
at Churchill Downs, Hollywood and Belmont Park.

It also will include complete access to the web site & all races being run at the three tracks on the Holiday Weekend.

Belmont Park

7/2 . .Suburban (Hdcp.). . . . . . . .G--2. . . . . .$300,000. . . . . . . 3 & up. . . . . .. .1 1/8 mi.

7/2 . .Dwyer. . . . . . . . . . . . . .. G-2. . . . . ..$150,000. . . . . . .3 yr olds. . .. .. .1 1/16 mi.

7/3. . Bed o' Roses (H'Cap.).. . . . .G-3. . . . . .$150,000. . . . . ... 3 &up (f). . .. . . 7 Furls.

7/3. . Matron. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .G-2. . . . . .$150,000. . . .  . . .2 yr  olds(f). .. . .6 Furls.

7/3. . Futurity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . G-2. . . . . .$150,000. . . . . . . 2 yr olds. . . . . . 6 Furls.

7/4. . Prioress. . . . . . . . . . . . . . G-1. . . . . .$250,000. . . . . . . 3 yr olds(f).. .. . .6 Furls.

Hollywood Park:

7/2. . Shoemaker Mile. . . . . . . . .G-1. . . . . . $300,000. . . . . . . .3 & up. . . . . .. 1-mile (Turf)

7/2. . Triple Bend H'cap. . . . . . . .G-1. . . . . . $250,000. . . . .  . . 3 & up. . . . . . 7 Furls.

7/4. . .Royal Heroine Mile. . . . . . .G-2. . . . . . $150,000. . . . . . . .3 & up (f). . . .1- mile (Turf)

Churchill Downs:

7/2. . .Bashford Manor. . . . . .. . . G-3. . . . . . .$100,000. . . . . . . 2 yr olds. . . . .6 Furls.

7/4. . Firecracker H'Cap. . . . . . . .G-2. . . . . . .$175,000. . . . . . . 3 & up. . . . . . 1-mile (Turf)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------

Complete Access to www.GradeOneRacing.com includes:

*  Performance Notes for all three tracks including enhanced Notes for Belmont Park.
*  Pedigree insights for 2 year olds and turf horses, by our renown Pedigree Expert, Lauren Stich.
*  Workout Analysis for Churchill Downs and Hollywood,(Our NY workout Analysis will be in the system for Saratoga)
*  For the first time, our exclusive workout reports will include analysis of many who went through sales' rings this year.
*  Track Bias Reports for the Kentucky, Florida, NY and Southern California  circuits for several months.
*  Steve Davidowitz' Preview Column(s) focusing on the key contenders for the 11 Graded Stakes on the July 4 weekend.
*  Preferred Performers Lists, our powerful and highly productive tool to spot improving horses at all our tracks. 
  (Below is just one example of many to illiustrate the potency of this exclusive www.GradeOneRacing.com feature.
  
Hollywood Park, 7th race, Sunday,June 26. 
Preferred Performer data on SHRUG the $17.60 winner of this race.

 WORKOUT REPORT FOR SHRUG
* Jun 17th, 2011, Santa Anita: 6 furls in 1:12.- "Worked in company with stablemate Sun's Out. The set was head n' head
 for all of the drill and battled it out in the last furlong in (a fast) 11.3. Looks fit and ready to go!

* Apr 28th, 2011,Santa Anita: 5 furls in  58.2/5 - "Bullet 5f drill was best of 23 for the distance. Looked real good
 down the lane finished the last quarter mile very easy in 23.3 Nice move here. LQQK"

PEDIGREE ANALYSIS
Shrug - c. 2008 Medaglia d'Oro-Babeinthewoods, by Woodman
By one of the top sires today who gets winners on all surfaces (and sire of Rachel Alexandra),
this colt is out of a half-sister to stakes winner, Rayelle, and second dam, Delicate Vine, was a flashy 2-year-old,
winning the Arlington-Washington Lassie Stakes (Gr. 1) Sorority (Gr. 2), and Landaluce Stakes and was third in the Oak Leaf Stakes (Gr. 1).
 
Please Note: LQQK  is www.GradeOneRacing.com's KEYWORD that puts worthy horses on our Preferred Perfomers List.

Likewse, the pedigree info was totally complementary to the expectations of a top performance in this type of race.
----------------------------------- ---------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------

Again, the special July 4 Weekend package automatically includes a Free Entry to our lucrative
July 30-31 Contest on Saratoga and Del Mar races that will offer 10 Betting Vouchers for the Travers
 and/or Pacific Classic worth $100 to $2000 apiece.

Of equal; import, the cost for the July 4 package to newcomers and current non subscribers is a modest $25!

Please Also Note: One of our subscribers used his $500 Win-$500 Place Betting Voucher that he won in our Kentucky Derby contest to bet RULER ON ICE in the Belmont Stakes!
He collected $18,875 in net profits, not bad for a contest that was Free to enter.

First Prize in the First Anniversary Contest on July 30 and 31 will include a pair of $1000 Betting Vouchers, one each for the Travers and the Pacific Classic. This contest also will be Free to all who buy this $25 July 4 Weekend Package, as well as to our Seasonal or Yearly Subscribers.

You may pruchase the July 4 Weekend Package through the link below:

https://www.gradeoneracing.com/subscribe.htm

The rules and prizes for the Special July 30-31 Handicapping Contest can be found through the link below:

To purchase the $25 July 4 Weekend Package and/or to subscribe for the summer Saratoga and Del Mar race  meets,
or the Yearly package that includes the next 12 months, please click on the link below:

https://www.gradeoneracing.com/subscribe.htm

A Happy Anniversary to all of us here in America and to all in this world who play the greatest game ever invented.
Sincerely/Steve Davidowitz.

 

Not only did Ron win our first annual Fantasy Contest (to select Kentucky Derby starters); not only did that performance earn Ron a FREE, fully paid entry to the $600,000 (estimated) Horseplayers' World Series at the Orleans Hotel in Vegas, but he also won a FREE $500 to WIN--$500 to PlACE BETTING VOUCHER TO PLAY THE HORSE OF HIS CHOICE IN THE BELMONT STAKES.

So, when he sent his preferred Belmont Stakes play via E-mail prior to Friday's deadline at 5:00 PM EDT, I wondered if he had lost his mind, or made a mistake.

While all the other winning voucher players used their combined $2,960 in free wagers to play ANIMAL KINGDOM, SANTIVA, NEHRO, MASTER OF HOUNDS and BRILLIANT SPEED in various amounts. Ron Hodges's selection for his $500 WIN AND PLACE wager was #3 RULER ON ICE!  

Yikes!

What a sharp pick and what a gutsy play and not a bad return for a contest that required no entry fee at all.

In fact, Ron's net profits on his free $500 WIN-$500 PLACE wager was a tidy $18,875.

Yes, $18,875!

While the result was a shock to many and I will interview Ron later this week for more insights into his handicapping approach, the Belmont certainly demonstrated---as so many Triple Crown races have shown in recent years---that these 'classic' races have dramatically changed to the extent that nothing can be taken for granted.

No previous pattern of prep races, no specified time away from competition can be construed as the key the Kentucky Derby. Likewise, no pattern of speed figures, or sheet numbers can be used as reliable tools for predicting improvement or sharp regressions in the spring classics--at least not as reliable as the same tools were earlier in the decade.

Ruler On Ice was not an impossible winner, not when you consider that he had run well in all four of his prior route races and was likely to attend the Belmont pace without much exertion. Not an absurd pick either, when it could have been predicted that Ruler on Ice was going to attend the pace right behind  Preakness winner Shackleford, who seemed likely to get to the lead from his outside post and cruise through a mile or 1-1/4 miles without being forced to go at a pace beyond his powers. Fact is, Shackleford used that exact scenario to win the Preakness, only this time Shackleford was going to prove a handy target at a distance  5/16 longer than the 1-3/16 miles Preakness.

The terrible beginning that Derby winner Animal Kingdom endured--with jockey John Velazquez losing his irons and barely escaping a trip to the ground five strides out of the gate---definitely cost the colt any chance to win the Belmont. That 'AK' rallied strongly around most of the field on the long sweeping turn from the half mile pole to the quarter pole, was plenty evidence that finishing sixth was not a true bill.  Frankly, the way 'AK' ran in the Belmont suggested that he needed only a good start to have been a formidable contender on Saturday.

As for Shackleford, he ran his race, setting the pace as long as he could before giving ground steadily during the final furlongs to finish fifth. At the bottom line, the Belmont adventure was one race too many for this game colt, a couple of furlongs too far.

Nehro, who was highly touted by the "sheet makers" to be the frequent bridesmaid who would become the groom in the Belmont, may have been hampered by the rain soaked, packed down and firmly sealed Belmont racing surface. But, his fourth  in the Belmont looked to be so typical of horses who have run well several times without winning. They build up a resume of excuses until they lose their form, or the trainer finds a new key to push them into a stronger performance. At least this fourth by Nehro confirmed that pattern, one of few form patterns to remain in play.

The big surprise to me and probably to most observers was not Ruler On Ice, who ran well in the 1-1/8 mile, $800,000 Sunland Park Derby in March. Fact is, I was there that day and lost a fair amount of money betting Ruler on Ice while loaded with a TWICE THE APPEAL- RULER ON ICE exacta and a Trifecta play that included ASTROLOGY---a play that just missed producing a personal $50K payoff.

But Ruler On Ice's promising performance in the Sunland Derby was nullified in part five weeks later, by a disappointing second at 4-5 odds in the un-Graded Frederico Tesio at Pimlico on May 7. That uninspiring effort persuaded trainer Kelly Breen to skip the Preakness because he wasn't sure his fit gelding  liked the track. At the same time, Breen reasoned that blinkers might help 'Ruler', especially if the lack of contending speed stayed intact for the 1-1/2 mile Belmont stakes.

While the Belmont might have seemed an ambitious target, Breen quietly has had an amazing year, winning the $1 million Louisiana Derby with PANTS ON FIRE and now the historic $1 million Belmont Stakes with stablemate Ruler On Ice.

Beyond the winner's gritty pace-stalking effort----in which he outgamed STAY THIRSTY and third place finisher Brilliant Speed through the final furlongs---the real surprise in this race, at least to me, was Stay Thirsty' strong second.

Here was a horse who had demonstrated Grade-1 talent when second to BOYS AT TOSCANOVA last summer in the prestigious 7 furlong Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga. And yes, he had won the Gotham on the inner track Mar. 5 (with future Wood Memorial winner TOBY'S CORNER, third). But all that seemed wasted while Styay Thirsty was being used strictly as a workmate for UNCLE MO, presumed to be the best 3 year old in America before he lost the Wood and was diagnosed with a stomach infection.

On his own at Gulfstream in April, Stay Thirsty performed like a $30,000 claiming horse,  finishing seventh, 16 lengths behind DIALED IN in the Florida Derby. He looked only slightly better when 12th in the Kentucky Derby, 11 lengths behind Animal Kingdom.

Back in New York and with no Uncle Mo to deal with in his training, Stay Thirsty apparently started to come around when he worked six furlongs in 1:12 flat over the Belmont main track on May 29 and followed that with a solid five furlongs in 1:00-2/5 on June 5. . .For this colt's vastly improved performance in the Belmont---in which he chased the pace and fought hard every step of the way---trainer Todd Pletcher certainly deserves high praise.

Now Pletcher has Stay Thirsty back in form and the son of Bernardini could be an important factor through the summer and fall. Even if Uncle Mo does not come back to the races this summer, few will discount Stay Thirsty's ability to run with the best 3 year olds in training.

All that said, many were disappointed in the performances of  MUCHO MACHO MAN (7th), SANTIVA (8th) and MASTER OF HOUNDS (10th);  all were nowhere near the pace or the top finishing positions. Moreover, we had three different winners  in this Triple Crown series and all paid box car numbers. Subscribers to this site didn't mind, of course, as Animal Kingdom clicked at 21-1 after receiving glowing workout reports at Churchill Downs from chief clocker Bruno DeJulio and we know of at least one subscriber who enjoyed the rain soaked, upside down Belmont Stakes on Saturday:

Ron Hodges, a very good horseplayer, no doubt will apply his talents to our next contest on the Saratoga and Del Mar wekeend races, July 29 and 30. We also think he might be a threat (along with two other Fantasy Contest winners) in the Horseplayer's World Series next winter. Frankly, I think Ron's out-of-the-box-pick and pressurized bet on the $51.50 winner in the 2011 Belmont was a sensational play that any professional horseplayer would put in their personal scrapbook. I know I would.

--------------------------------- ---------#30#------------------- ------------------------------------------ --------------------------------

Winning all three races is a daunting task, as we have seen since AFIRMED was the last to complete a sweep in 1978.  That was a mere 33 years ago and the fact that Affirmed had to deal with future Hall of Famer, ALYDAR in those three races, makes his accomplishment even more remarkable. Without stretching the point, Alydar on his own, would have been a Triple Crown winner in almost every other year.

This year, the Belmont Stakes is not really the Test of the Champion, but should ANIMAL KINGDOM win it, he would not only have won two of the three legs, but would be shy a Triple Crown by about six feet and perhaps .08 seconds, given his loss in the Preakness  by a half length to SHACKLEFORD in the Preakness.

Shackleford, for his part would have two thirds of the coveted Crown with a Belmont Stakes victory, but his fourth place finish in the Kentucky Derby would not make anyone think that he just missed racing immortality.

Beyond the near misses and the absence of a Triple Crown Champion for the 33rd straight time, what do we really have in this 1-1/2 mile race that has been attracting special interest since it first was run in 1867?

My thoughts are partly contained in the overview comments I made and have fined tuned periodically this week in our special Belmont Stakes Week package.

But, the underlying thought that will see me take the rubber band off my wallet on Saturday is this:

ANIMAL KINGDOM is the strongest horse in the field and probably the one horse who can move on from this experience to be a serious threat to older horses on any racing surface or reasonable distance.

The Belmont after all will only be his seventh lifetime race and there are no bad marks or bad races on his resume. He overcame a slow pace to win the Derby going away. He overcame some hard dirt hit in his face at the start of the Preakness and ran a Zenyatta-like race in which he came from too far back to be a good second in the 1-3/16 miles Preakness.

His trainer, Graham Motion, has been doing A+ work with distance horses for more than a decade. While the vast majority of those distance horses were 4 years old or older and/or were strictly turf horses, Motion has made the easy conversion to handling a maturing 3 year old for important races on synthetic and dirt tracks, as if he has more Triple Crown races in his future.

Bringing Animal Kingdom to Belmont a week early for the Belmont, instead of keeping him at the Fair Hill training center in Maryland until the morning of the race, is a subtle, but important concession that Motion may have hurt ‘AK's Preakness chances by denying the colt the chance to get a feel for the Pimlico racing surface.

Still, there were many horses who ran well in the Derby and/or Preakness who deserve a close look in the longest and most unusual Triple Crown race.

SHACKLEFORD certainly looks to be the controlling speed on Saturday even from post 12. Despite questions about his true suitability to classic distances, he has run two strong races in the Triple Crown to date and might simply gallop them to death over the wide sweeping, 1-1/2 mile Belmont oval.

Given that the controlling speed horse often has won the Belmont for fun, it is difficult to side with Animal Kingdom's outspoken owner-Barry Irwin-who said at a Belmont lunch on Tuesday that, “ I do not fear Shackleford in the Belmont at all. . .“The horse I am worried about,” he added , “is Mucho Macho Man.”

MUCHO MACHO MAN has lost front shoes in the two poor efforts on his resume, a fourth in the Louisiana Derby and a ratty sixth in the Preakness. But in the 1-1/16 mile Risen Star, which he won and the 1-1/4 mile Kentucky Derby, in which he finished third with a good late surge, he has acted like a natural distance horse. Whether he can hold his form, or improve upon it on Saturday is open to debate.

On one hand, our erstwhile clocker Bruno DeJulio----whose insightful reports certainly identified Animal Kingdom as the horse to beat at Churchill Downs and similarly knocked the chances of DIALED IN in both the Derby and Preakness---has seen some disturbing loss of weight.

That said, watching horses train, as much as watching them race, is not an exact science. Some wiggle room is required and there are horses—such as Shackleford, who looked ready for a cold shower prior to the Preakness—who nevertheless run out of their skin. In other words, a horse may run to his best even when the visual signs scream out to the contrary.

In a toss up, I will always sign on with Bruno when pitted against the opinion of an owner of a horse in a given race. So, if Bruno thinks Mucho Macho Man has paid a price for his campaign to date, I will lower my opinion of the horse's chances and demand inflated odds to include him in any meaningful play.

The other horses of note in this field, all are one big performance away from becoming important.  To date, they have only hinted that they have the talent to win an historic race.  But that is what we thought about Animal Kingdom before the Derby and what many also thought about Shackleford before the Preakness.

Consider the plusses and minuses of the other horses who ran relatively well in the Derby.

NEHRO. . .His three straight second place finishes in races worth $1 million or more—especially his second place performance in the Derby--obviously speak to his overall class. Following the Derby, his prescribed absence from the Preakness spoke to the judicious way he has been handled.  This race has been his target since the day after the Derby and trainer Steve Asmussen is one of the best, one of the most versatile in the game.

Not only did Asmussen earn a pair of Horse of the Year trophies for CURLIN in 2007 and '08, but followed that with a Horse of the Year campaign with the filly RACHEL ALEXANDRA in 2009. Moreover, Asmussen did win the 2007 and 2009 Preakness with those two horses respectively and trained Curlin to a very close second to Rags to Riches in the 2007 Belmont. All that suggests that Asmussen knows his way around these classic races.

On the negative side, Nehro's three straight second place finishes might simply mean that he has acquired a bad habit, a habit tough to break. And the price for the risk—he's 4-1 in the morning line--- might be a shade below his true value.

MASTER OF HOUNDS. . .Ran very well first out of the box this year in the 1-3/16 mile Dubai Derby in March. Then his fifth place finish in the 1-1/4 mile Kentucky Derby included a good rally after a very wide turn and that was his first try on a dirt track. Moreover he is bred to run 10 miles, which may not negate the 15,000 miles he has put in aboard air transport in the most ambitious travel plan for a Belmont horse in racing history.

Consider: He flew from Ireland to Dubai, flew back to Ireland, then to Kentucky and back to Ireland and now he is in New York. Another possible negative is that Master of Hounds will have had very little time galloping or training over the unusual, sand-based  Belmont racing surface, the widest in America.

SANTIVA. . .6th in the Derby, has a sneaky credential that might deserve more attention than it has received to date.

His three best lifetime races have been over a distance of ground and two of those races were on dirt tracks! As a son of distance loving Giant's Causeway, he certainly is bred to handle the extended Belmont Stakes route. Aside from the way Animal Kingdom blew by everyone in the Derby, Santiva was closing ground as well as Master of Hounds and Brilliant Speed, the trio that was lapped on each other in 5th, 6th and 7th place at the wire.

Negatively, Santiva really has not developed a preferred running style; has not put in a convincing performance since winning the Breeders' Futurity on the Polytrack at Keeneland last fall.

BRILLIANT SPEED, 7th in the Derby, is another who finished relatively well in a generally positive performance that provided plenty of reasons to believe that his poor tries on dirt as a 2 year old were not a true bill. A son of the stoutly bred DYNAFORMER, Brilliant Speed has every right to love the 1-1/2 mile Belmont distance and he has one other thing going for him: Except for those two early races at 5 and 7 furlongs as a 2 year old, Brilliant Speed has improved his Beyer Speed Figures in every one of his last seven races.

On the negative side, he is a plodder, a horse who does not run to his name at all. Fact is he has no early speed and horses such as this usually need a pace meltdown to win.

Of the others in the Belmont field I see mostly negatives.

MONZON was outrun in the Peter Pan and Sam F Davis,  a pair of Graded stakes that had very few potential Grade-1 horses in their respective fields.

PRIME CUT was an OK third in the Peter Pan, but did lose ground in the stretch, which he also did when second in the Lexington on the Keeneland Polytrack.

RULER ON ICE has five in the money finishes, including two wins in six career starts, which is not bad at all. But there is nothing in his breeding or in the horses he faced to suggest he is ready to be a Grade-1 Classic winner at the longest distance any of these horses probably will face in their lives. A nice horse, certainly. A live longsot for the exotics? Well, maybe.

STAY THIRSTY  may have turned the corner working solo since he was almost used up serving as UNCLE MO's trial horse in a series of pre Derby Workouts. But realistically, a decent fifth or a miracle fourth place finish in this race would be a step in the right direction.

ISN'T HE PERFECT has shown nothing to date to suggest he can be or will be an important factor at this level and/or this distance. While it is true that only Shackelford has front running speed for this task and Isn't He Perfect may attend that colt's early pace, it is difficult to see him outfinishing  any of the key contenders here.

In conclusion, the horses who ran well in the Derby should run well here, but predicting their probable order at the finish line will not be easy for anyone. All I can suggest is that leaving Animal Kingdom off your tickets would be to embrace a high degree of risk.

Likewise, it would seem counter-productive to believe that you can separate the Derby seven without getting very lucky during the race itself.

All that leaves me to believe that a Trifecta or Superfecta play that is built around Animal Kingdom will have to use the horses who were bunched together in the Derby in a prominent, yet subordinate role. Frankly, I will rely upon actual post time odds to be my separating device. Good Luck with this one. And do not forget to look at the horses we have info on in the supporting stakes.

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It does not please me to write this.  From the time I started playing the horses in 1961, the Met was my favorite race for older horses on the national racing calendar. Actually it was my favorite race because sometimes it included top 3 year olds prepping for the Belmont Stakes---an exciting spice to a prestigious race that usually attracted the best older horses in training.

Hall of Fame trainers Elliot Burch and Woody Stephens used the Met in that manner, and so did a handful of other trainers.

In 1959, Burch put SWORD DANCER in the Met, won the race in stakes record time and won the Belmont Stakes a week later. Perhaps you may know about this, but Sword Dancer previously had lost the Kentucky Derby by a nose to TOMY LEE  and also finished second to ROYAL ORBIT  in the Preakness. Winning the Met was not only a confidence builder, it propelled Sword Dancer to six more major stakes wins in seven starts to the end of a remarkable Horse of the Year campaign.

In 1964, Burch did almost the same thing with QUADRANGLE, who had finished a weak fifth in the Derby to NORTHERN DANCER, but ended the latter's Triple Crown bid in the Belmont after Quadrangle finished a useful second in the Met.

In 1969, Burch watched his ARTS AND LETTERS lose two close decisions in the Derby and Preakness to the great MAJESTIC PRINCE, who probably should not have run in the Belmont, even as an undefeated horse seeking a  Triple Crown sweep. But Burch wasn't counting on Majestic Prince's skin rashes to slow him down, so he put Arts and Letters in the Met, won the race breaking Sword Dancer's stakes record. And off that Met win, went out to defeat Majestic Prince in the Belmont en route to six straight important stakes wins and another Horse of the Year award for a Bruch trained 3 year old.

Woody Stephens was paying attention.

In 1982, he skipped the Derby and Preakness with CONQUISTADOR CIELO who had been injured winning a stakes at Saratoga the previous summer. Instead, Stephens ran Conquistador in a two allowance races in May, including a smart win over older horses, then wheeled him back in the Met Mile where he broke the one mile track record in 1:33 flat. A scant five days later, Stephens confidently watched Conquistador Cielo win the Belmont by 14 lengths, the first of the great trainer's five straight wins in the Belmont.

In 1987, the 3 year old GULCH won the Met when trained by Leroy Jolley, before he finished third in the Belmont, a race that was at least 1/4 mile beyond his scope.  (By finishing third in that Belmont, Gulch cost ALYSHEBA a $1 million bonus for his Triple crown performances.) And to show that his Met win was not a mere function of the weight allowances accorded to 3 year olds against older horses, Gulch, now trained by D. Wayne Lukas, came back in 1988 to win the Met en route to a Breeders' Cup Sprint win and an Eclipse Award for the nation's top sprinter.

In 1994 HOLY BULL  was a big flop in the Kentucky Derby, but was given a freshening by W.A. Croll who saw the Met Mile as a wonderful target all its own. Holy Bull won the Met and went on from there to win five straight to the end of his strong Horse of the Year campaign.

Aside from the dozens of Hall of Fame horses who won the Met during its first 70 years, I saw eight win this race from my first Met in 1961, when five time Horse of the Year KELSO won it under 130 pound. The seven other Hall of Famer I saw win this race were CARRY BACK, GUN BOW, BUCKPASSER, ARTS AND LETTERS, FOREGO, GULCH and HOLY BULL.  These in addition to nine other Hall of Fame horses who won the Met during the three decades that encompass the depression era through to 1960.

Of subtle but key importance in this discussion is this fact: No 3 year old has won the Met since Holy Bull and few have been given the chance. This is par for the course in the modern game of Thoroughbred racing, a game that now encourages trainers to space out their races as long as possible, to race horses as few times as possible and to seek spots where the competition is as weak as possible and the weights assigned in handicap events are a joke.

This year, we could easily have seen Bob Baffert use the Met as a prep for the Belmont with JAYCITO, if that horse is actually prpping for the 1-1/2 mile Classic after missing so many races this spring. We also could have seen FLASHPOINT run here instead of the foolish use of his sprinter's speed in the 1-3/16 mile Preakness.  

Instead the 2011 Met Mile is filled with modestly talented horses who might outperform my personal rankings, but until proven otherwise, this is one more example of the Met living off the prestige that was earned in bygone decades. In fact, I would book serious money that no horse in this field ever will be on a ballot for the Hall of Fame, much less make it into that historic shrine.

That said, the race could be a decent opportunity for a wager or two. At least one astute subscriber to www.GradeOneRacing.com, Wayne Crimi thinks so and sent his profiles for each horse along with the suggestion that the two logical betting favorites, HAYNESFIELD and TACKLEBERRY may be overbet.

Here is Wayne Crimi's Met Mile rundown complete with program numbers, weights, jockeys and morning line odds. If Wayne proves right about his instincts, then we'll have to bring him back for another race soon, lol:)

$500,000 METROPOLITAN MILE HANDICAP, G-1 FOR 3 YEAR OLDS; ONE MILE AROUND ONE TURN. (No 3 yr olds entered)

 #1  SOARING EMPIRE, 118 pounds, Jose Lezcano, 6-1- Steadily improving 4YO raced 3 wide and several lengths off a slow pace in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap when he failed to catch wire to wire winner Tackleberry. He's been working well for trainer Gambolati who does fairly well with freshened horses. He has some issues with the gate, but is a major contender if he gets out well and secures decent position despite the rail.

 #2 STORMY MAJESTY, 115 pounds, Edgar Prado, 30-1 - Stalked a soft pace against NY Breds winning his first start of the year. Promising 4YO is facing much tougher company today and will have to run a lifetime best to get in the mix here.

 #3 RODMAN, 115 pounds, Channing Hill, 20-1 - Grade 3 winner wired softer in a slow pace win at this distance last time out in his second start after a 14 month layoff. He has some talent and can sit in a nice spot if the pace gets too hot, but he'll have to reach a new peak at age 6 to get the money here.

 #4 AIKENITE, 120 pounds, John R. Velazquez, 9-2 - Comes off a win in the Grade 2 Churchill downs where he swung out and closed on the far outside on a day that seemed to be favoring outside closers. Normally, I prefer horses that performed well against the grain of the track or race development, but Aikenite is simply too sharp to dismiss. Contender.

 #5 CAIXA ELECTRONICA, 117 pounds, Cornelius Velasquez, 8-1 - Sat just off the very hot pace set by Christmas for Liam and Haynesfield in the Grade 3 Westchester. While that's typically a good trip, IMO this horse was close enough to the action to think he ran a huge race that day to finish well and hold off the late closers. While he seemed a hair below Tackleberry and Soaring Empire earlier in the year, he's very sharp now and may have improved for Pletcher. Contender.

 #6 YAWANNA TWIST, 115 pounds, Mike Luzzi, 12-1 - Sat inside, dropped back off the pace as things heated up during the middle of the race, and finished well in the Grade 1 Carter (good trip). He's going to have improve further to win here, but he's among the more lightly raced horses in the race, showed some talent at 3 with a close up finish in the Preakness, and seems set to improve further. If he's enough of a price, he's usable as a value even though he's been a notch below so far.

 #7 IBBOYEE, 115 pounds, J J Castellano, 15-1 - Was far back in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs and closed very quickly on a strip seemingly geared towards outside closers. His last two were good, but I believe he's still a notch or two below the best in here.

 #8 HAYNESFIELD, 119 pounds, Ramon Dominguez, 7-2 - Is the most accomplished horse in the race and probable post time favorite. He was used hard prompting a fast pace against Christmas for Liam in his Westchester prep for this. If he fires his "A" race, he's going to win here. But the combination of a somewhat spotty record that indicates he likes things his own way, the likelihood that he's not going to have a soft trip on the lead, and the fact that he came back more than a notch below his best makes me want to take a shot against him as the favorite. Logical but vulnerable.

 #9 KENSEI, 115 pounds, Eddie Castro,  12-1 - Hasn't recovered his razor sharp form of the summer of 2009 when he looked like he was ready to move towards the top of that class. He's been better in 2 starts this year than he was in 2009 and is working well now, but he's not all the way back. Wasn't badly beaten in the Grade 1 Carter. If he moves forward he can get into the mix.

 #10 TACKLEBERRY, 120 pounds, Jose Santiago, 6-1, - Very game and highly consistent horse was one of the best campaigners in Florida this winter. He gets Lasix for the first time which could help. While his best makes him a major contender, I'm more apt to let him beat me in this spot if he's bet. He was the beneficiary of a slow pace in a couple of his wins in Florida and won't get away with that with Haynesfield and others inside of him likely to keep things very honest in this race. He's also a little less fresh than some of the others. While it's easy to excuse his tiring 4th on a very sloppy track in the Charles Town Classic, perhaps he's beginning to tail off just as some of the others that have been aiming for this will be hitting their best stride.

 #11 TIZWAY, 116 pounds, Rajiv Maragh, 5-1 - 3rd in last years Met in an excellent performance. Fit well with Tackleberry and Soaring Empire in Florida earlier this year. This is his 3rd start off the layoff . He seems set to fire a big race and should get a decent stalking trip from the outside. Major contender.

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As you can see from the above, Wayne Crimi did not come to a steadfast conclusion in his report. But the basic handicapping idea he offers is worth some emphasis: Look for reasons why favorites might not reproduce their best race and look just as hard for legit contenders who probably will go off at inflated prices. While that may seem a basic notion, we are often surprised how few players really adhere to that concept with their play.

 Added Note: The door is now open to any serious horseplayer who subscribes to this web site, to share a complete analysis of any intriguing race being run at any of our principal tracks. For the Spring and Summer, these tracks will include Churchill Downs, Hollywood Park, Del Mar, and of course Belmont Park and Saratoga, for which we will begin our exclusive Workout Reports next weekend---all the way through to the fall.

 Also, please see the blog to be posted Monday, May 30, for:

A)  Changes and improvements coming to the site.

B)   A new summer handicapping contest.

C)   A small window for special discounted subscription rates.

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Sure, Animal Kingdom was closing resolutely, from too far back and yes, he had to weave his way through some traffic turning into the stretch. But that was Shackleford in front of him, a horse he gobbled for breakfast just two weeks earlier. That was Shackleford, not Dr. Fager; not Bold Forbes. That was Shackleford, a game horse for sure, but a horse who had set a relatively soft pace in Louisville, opened up a clear lead approaching the final furlong, yet could not stave off ANIMAL KINGDOM, NEHRO and MUCHO MACHO MAN in the final 1/16 miles.

Some might say that Animal Kingdom “bounced” (regressed) from his dynamic performance at Churchill Downs only two weeks ago. But I think the Derby winner ran well considering the circumstances. I also think Shackleford was a most surprising victor, given all the things against him.

First, the son of Forestry had to outrun his pedigree tilted towards one mile races, just as he did while failing to last after setting a 1:10 3/5 pace pace in the 1-1/8 mile Florida Derby on Apr. 3. Following that, he did not improve his standing as a potential winner of a Classic race by tiring late for his fourth place finish in Kentucky.

As the Derby result chart suggests, Shackleford finished a tiring 3-3/4 lengths behind Animal Kingdom, the colt who went by him as if he was looking for a place to lie down.

That said, Shackleford came into the Preakness with his natural speed, but I thought he had a better chance to replicate his fourth place finish than win the race, given that he was destined to be accompanied on the pace by the speedy FLASHPOINT.

In the Derby,  Shackleford went through six furlongs in 1:13.40. In the Preakness, it looked like the pace would be much faster, something in the neighborhood of 1:11 and change.

With that reasonable expectation, it was hard to imagine Shackleford, or any other horse in the race, getting to the top of the stretch without having paid the price for their earlier exertion. Handicapping 101 says that a fast, contested pace, ordinarily takes its toll on any horse on or near the early leader.

Then during the 10 minutes preceding the Preakness, we all saw Shackleford wash out badly in the post parade. Watching that, most of us believed that this colt was out-of-sorts with a bad case of nerves going into the starting gate. “Forget that horse,” I said. And, I would bet serious money that those were the unspoken thoughts of all but a few observers at the track or on TV.

(Only trainer Dale Romans said afterwards that he was "not particuialrly concerned" by the colt's nervous behavior. “ He's washed out some in most races,” Romans said. "But, it hasn't stopped him from running good.”

Maybe so, but very few horses come part at the seams before running their best lifetime race! The simple fact is that Shackleford was washing out more before the Preakness than he had in any prior race. This was a new low for him in that department and I have not seen many horses run well after looking so hot and sweaty going in the starting gate.

But the gates did open and washed-out or not, Shackleford shook off his nerves; shook off the early pressure asserted by Flashpoint---who raced on even terms for the lead through a very fast opening quarter mile fraction of 22.69, a torrid pace that seemed likely to doom both horses to a very poor finish in this 1-3/16 miles race.  

Suddenly, however, as the field moved around the clubhouse turn into the backstretch, Shackleford and Flashpoint quietly shifted to a slower more controlled pace, running their second  quarter mile in a moderate 24.18 seconds and a third quarter in  25.14. That slow-down for a full half mile (to the six furlong marker in 1:12.01), gave both horses the opportunity to go on from there to a post a strong possible Preakness finish.

Unfortunately, Flashpoint could not stay on, eventually retiring to last. The bottom line on him was known before the Preakness and he formfully played out his role---Flashpoint simply is a sprinter who was being asked to go at least three furlongs further than his comfort zone.

Yet, after Flashpoint departed for his inevitable finish at the rear of the pack, the well conditioned and highly competitive Shackleford continued forward, holding the lead, heading into the stretch towards the most important win of his career. 

Although this was the first Preakness win for trainer Dale Romans and his relatively low profile rider Jesus Castanon, Romans has been riding a high riding wave on the national racing stage for the last 12 months. It is obvious now, perhaps, that Romans can train any horse at the highest levels of competition.

Remember, not only did the Romans trained Paddy O' Prado finish a good third in the 2010 Kentucky Derby, his First Dude was a sharp second in the 2010 Preakness. (Paddy subsequently won three Graded turf stakes in 2010 and came back from an extended layoff to win the $200,000 Dixie at Pimlico on Saturday's Preakness undercard.Unfortunately, in victory, Paddy O'Prado suffered a sesamoid injury and was retired Monday. First Dude now is being trained by Bob Baffert after the colt's owners wanted to see him run at Santa Anita this winter. More than that, Romans' expert work with Shackleford to date would make a Hall of Fame trainer proud. Who knows, a few more years like 2010 and 2011 and Romans just might make it there.)

So now we have no possible Triple Crown sweep for the 33rd  straight year since Affirmed became the 11th horse to win the Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes. So now, we move on to Belmont Park for the 1-1/2 mile Belmont Stakes on June 11 and the only thing that will save that historic race from oblivion this year will be if Animal Kingdom and Shackleford are there for the rubber match.

It is too soon for certainties, but the connections for both horses said Sunday morning that if Animal Kingdom and Shackleford look the part during the next several days, we should see both in the Belmont.

“It would be good for racing to see them both there,” Romans said. “ I think these horses are better than their “numbers” and I think the Belmont would show that. “

Romans reference to “numbers” speaks to the low 103 Beyer Speed Figure Animal Kingdom earned in the Kentucky Derby and the 104 Beyer gave Shackleford for the Preakness, which in the case of the Preakness, actually seemed a few points generous. Either way, the "official" Derby-Preakness Figs add up to the lowest combined Beyers for these races in the 20 years Andy has published his Figs in Daily Racing Form. 

In addition to Animal Kingdom and Shackleford, the Belmont also figures to include NEHRO, who was second in the Derby and skipped the Preakness. His stablemate ASTROLOGY, who ran a good third in the Preakness, also is a possibility. But trainer Steve Asmussen privately has indicated that he might instead point Astrology for a summer campaign that will target the Haskel Invitational at Monmouth and/or the Travers Stakes at Saratoga in August.

Other Belmont possibilities include SANTIVA, PRIME CUT and the European based MASTER OF HOUNDS.

Master of Hounds finished an encouraging fifth in the Derby, his first start on dirt, his second start in 2011 and first in six weeks. Santiva was sixth in the Derby and has a long-distance pedigree. ALTERNATION was a good winner of the Peter Pan at Belmont last week and Prime Cut has been well regarded all year despite unsuccessful efforts in various Graded stakes.

DIALED IN, a slowly gaining fourth in the Preakness, disappointed his many backers for the second straight time. Although trainer Nick Zito is going to evaluate Dialed In for the Belmont, our hard working and extremely accurate Workout Analyst Bruno DeJulio wrote several times in recent weeks that the stretch running son of Mineshaft has “not looked at his best” since shipping to Churchill from his Palm Meadows training base in Florida.

MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE certainly will not be at the Belmont, having run 16th in the Derby and 13th in Preakness. “We might try a grass race for him,” Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert said.

Listening to Baffert speak about his horse's chances in pre race interviews on TV, it was striking to hear this five time Preakness winner say repeatedly that he “would be happy with a third place finish.”

This begs a question: Why, if Baffert was not convinced that Midnight Interlude was 100 percent ready for a top performance, did he bother to put him in the Preakness? Certainly, the public had as much faith in him getting to the wire first as they did Shackleford given their relatively similar 12-1 and 13-1 pari mutual odds. For sure, most of the money on Midnight Interlude was bet strictly on Baffert's overall reputation and his solid history in this race.

SWAY AWAY, the horse who was excluded from the Derby due to his marginal lack of Graded Stakes earnings, finished 12th  on Saturday after washing out as badly as Shackleford and performed as if he should have stayed in the barn.

Ditto for MR. COMMONS (8th); KING CONGIE (7th); NORMAN ASBJORNSON, (11th ); ISN'T HE PERFECT (9th); and CONCEALED IDENTITY (10th); none of whom looked the part of Triple Crown horses.

Mucho Macho Man, a major factor in his previous nine outings, including a third in the Kentucky Derby, had no visible excuse, until trainer Kathy Ritvo revealed that he had lost his left front shoe during the race. Mucho Macho Man was wearing glue-on shoes. Coincidence, perhaps, but Mucho Macho Man lost his right front shoe in the Louisiana Derby, when he finished fourth, at the time his worst career performance. For that race, his shoes were affixed with nails.

The whys and why nots filled my head for several hours after Shackleford crossed the finish line, without clearly cut answers how it was possible for this horse to outrun his pedigree; outrun his nervous condition; handle the early pace pressure and stay on to the wire to thwart a good Derby winner's latest Triple Crown bid. My answers came while half asleep following another grueling week of analyzing past performances, reviewing race tapes and making out frustratingly-inexact Preakness plays.

Oh well, I said to myself,  there are times when a handicapper can put in all the work, find the just causes to accurately marginalize the chances of 10 or 12 runners in a given race—even a 14 horse race like the Preakness—and still fail to see the winner before the race is run.  

This after all is not robot racing. There are things the human eye and brain cannot see clearly until the results are in. Call it the occupational hazards of a betting man, or the inevitable humbling that occurs when that simple truth is proven for the umpteenth time. I also remembered the sage counsel given to me under a similar circumstance a long time ago, something worth sharing with all of you : "Not to worry, young man, there will be plenty good results to come from all that work, not every day mind you, but often enough!"

Speaking of results, those that really did believe in Shackleford (despite the negative cues), obviously saw him as the logical horse to catch in the stretch. All they were looking for was for him to get rid of Flashpoint somewhere before the turn into the stretch and to find a little extra from there to get the job done. 

They got 12-1 for their positive thoughts and to be perfectly frank, I think they deserved every penny.

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On the racing front, the same questions we see every year will be on the table Saturday in the 1-3/16 mile Classic that has been run since 1873.

Can the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner repeat his winning performance only two weeks after he won the Derby?  Or, will ANIMAL KINGDOM bounce to the moon after reaching a “new top” in his first start on a dirt track, racing back in two weeks when he was accustomed to much longer spacing between his previous starts?

Will he be able to handle a different pace scenario? And yes, there certainly will be a much different pace this time around---with the speedy FLASHPOINT pressing Derby front- runner SHACKLEFORD; or, perhaps Flashpoint will go for the lead from the start and be pushed along by Shackleford and possibly DANCE CITY.

Want more questions? There are always plenty in any handicapping situation and there usually are a few wrinkles to be considered for the Preakness.

Will for example, the horses who ran poorly in the Derby, rebound with top efforts, as so many in prior years have reversed poor Derby tries with victories at Pimlico. Think of TANK'S PROSPECT in 1985; SNOW CHIEF in '86; HANSEL in '91, and Nick Zito's LOUIS QUATORZE in 1996----all were Preakness winners who raced poorly two weeks earlier at Churchill Downs.

This year, we could see Zito's DIALED IN follow that script after this Florida Derby winner rallied too late at Churchill to impact the race. This looms a possibility because of the faster pace we are likely to see at Pimlico and Zito's accurate post race observation: “He may have finished ninth, “Zito said; “ but, he actually finished faster than the Derby winner .”

So he did: Getting his final quarter in 23-4/5, while Animal Kingdom went in 24.

MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE also could pull off a positive reversal of form in the Preakness.

After all, he had improved sharply to win the Santa Anita Derby, but ran in reverse through the final half mile in Louisville. That performance seemingly put Midnight Interlude out of the Preakness until Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert watched him work a few days ago. Baffert was impressed and now is convinced that we will see a much better effort on Saturday.

“I believe he didn't really like the Churchill Downs track,” Baffert told our Chief Clocker Bruno DeJulio after a recent workout. . .“He worked OK over it, but he didn't stride out smoothly during the race. I think he''s a much better horse than he showed.”

While it may prove to be of little significance, Baffert and Zito were the only two Hall of Fame trainers in the 2011 Derby as well as the only Derby trainers this year who previously had won all three Triple Crown races. They also are among a select group of four trainers who have won the Preakness (Tom Albertrani, who trains KING CONGI, also trained BERNARDINI to a Preakness win in 2006 and Steve Asmussen, who trains ASTROLOGY, won the 2007 Preakness with Curlin and the 2009 Preakness with the newly acquired RACHEL ALEXANDRA)

Beyond a reversal of form, Preakness history is filled with newcomers who have jumped into the Triple Crown series to blow up a seemingly strong Triple Crown bid.

RED BULLET did that to FUSAICHI PEGASUS in the 2000 Preakness and the way Bernardini won the 2006 Preakness, he was going to be a formidable opponent to a BARBARO without the latter's terrible injury that eventually ended his life.

The great filly RACHEL ALEXANDRA, who defeated MINE THAT BIRD in the 2009 Preakness is another example.

The newcomers in this Preakness range from the two seriously overmatched horses ISN'T HE PERFECT and NORMAN ASBJORNSON who have a better chance to finish last, to a select few who may benefit from the faster pace as much as Animal Kingdom, Dialed In and Midnight Interlude. The newcomer Flashpoint certain is the fastest horse in this Preakness field and as we suggested earlier, he should ensure a swift early pace, compared to the slow three quarter mile pace we saw in the Kentucky Derby—1:13.40---- the slowest in 64 years!

Two of the newcomers—KING CONGI and SWAY AWAY—might benefit from the increased tempo. Both  can pack a strong late wallop.

King Congi showed that when he rallied well for third behind BRILLIANT SPEED in the Blue Grass Stakes. Sway Away may be the strongest finisher of all the Preakness horses and he is most effective if allowed to settle back and make one sustained run.

As most readers of Bruno's insightful workout reports here on www.GradeOneRacing.com already know, Sway Away was training as well as Animal Kingdom prior to the Derby. Unfortunately, he was excluded by the Graded stakes earnings rule and by owner Mike Repole's refusal to remove the obviously-ill UNCLE MO from consideration for the Derby post draw.

So, whether you believe Animal Kingdom will replicate his Derby form in the Preakness just as 11 prior Derby winners did since Affirmed completed his 1978 Triple Crown sweep; or, if you believe the horses who were left in his wake at Churchill Downs will reverse that decision, and/ or that all of the Derby horses coming back for this Classic will be trumped by a newcomer, regardless of your pre race opinion, the Preakness always is one of the most interesting races on the national racing calendar and there is no doubt that Saturday's race will earn its place in Triple crown lore.

Yet, it is impossible to view this Preakness without considering the singular historical facts that are playing out ominously in the background. Although it is upsetting to me--someone who covered Maryland Racing when the sport thrived in the 1970's and early '80's---the facts can be reduced to a single sentence:

Unfortunately, unless a miracle occurs, the days when the Preakness will remain the centerpiece of a racing in Maryland are few in number.

Right now, Pimlico and Maryland racing are hanging by frayed threads as an unpopular, unattractive 10-month Maryland racing season continues to be plagued by more short fields, lower purses and cheaper racing than any track in the mid-Atlantic region.

Nearby Delaware, West Virginia and Pennsylvania have purse structures fueled by slot machines, while Maryland is going down the tubes, via a series of very poor managerial decisions by Frank Stronach and the lack of political action in Annapolis to save the “Free State's” once proud racing industry.

For decades, Bowie, Pimlico and Laurel offered excellent claiming and allowance races, with plenty of well placed stakes to bolster the state's well developed breeding industry. Then along came Bowie's demise as a racetrack (it is now strictly a training center) and the simultaneous cry for year-round-racing by Maryland horseman which by itself weakened the daily product.

Next came the slots invasion and Maryland's failure to provide its historically and economically important racing-agri-business with the tools to rebuff so many competitive threats from its neighboring states. One of those states—Pennsylvania--not only has slots, but has been aggressively pursuing off track, phone betting and Internet wagering platforms, squeezing dollars from Maryland horseplayers every day.

This scenario has played out in other regions of the country, but nowhere has it had a more devastating impact than Maryland.

This year, the legislature reluctantly came up with a subsidy to keep the game alive and there might be another one forthcoming in 2012. But, if the state fails to set up a compact, intelligent racing schedule, supported by all the modern conveniences provided by the telephone and the home computer, even slot machines will not save it.

At the bottom line, the Preakness still—but barely--- balances the books at Pimlico, but the rest of Maryland racing is so much in the red that Laurel is unlikely to remain in business much longer and the state breeding industry that has supported racing here is producing fewer and fewer foals while the overall quality of the sport continues to deteriorate at an alarming rate.

If there is no direct action to rectify all of this within two, or at the most three years, the Preakness might be saved----because it is a brand that commands national interest---but without such intervention designed to help the state racing industry as a whole, the Preakness is odds-on to be moved to another state.

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First of all, it is ludicrous for anyone to argue in favor of a 19 or 20 horse Derby simply because the field size is something to be protected by tradition, or that it increases the excitement of the race. Oh Really?

Consider this simple fact: 14 horses is the maximum that the Breeders' Cup will allow for the $5 million BC Classic when it is run at Churchill at the same 1-1/4 mile distance and there is no question why that is so.

Twenty horses is an accident waiting to happen.

From what I have seen over several decades, even 17 horses are one, two or three horses too many. After all, we are talking about a breakneck run to the first turn by a herd of horses, many of whom will be angling over towards the inside rail to avoid a wide trip around that turn. We also should finally realize that Churchill Downs is a one mile oval with a modest width from the starting gate through the homestretch and around both turns. Is there any real difference between Churchill's one mile oval and virtually every other one mile track in America that limits field size to 14 horses at one time?

I personally can accept the fact that the Kentucky Derby is a special case, in which the demand to get into the field is too great to simply limit the field to 14 as commonly practiced. At the same time, there is no need to go to the other extreme and allow 20, not when the potential for an accident and the likelihood that some horses are going to suffer unfair disadvantages because of simple congestion. On that score, can anyone still argue—as many pundits continue to state--- that the treacherous nature of post one in the Derby is a just myth?

Frankly, we have more than sufficient evidence to indict post #1 as a greater risk to life and limb than any CD official presently is willing to concede.

As I see it, post one---in the two tiered starting gate that CD uses to accommodate 20---is a virtual ticket to defeat and a very dangerous place to begin a race on horseback.

Last year, we saw what can happen to a fit contender and this year we saw how a horse can be injured severely via the predicaments brought on by this treacherous post position, a post  that puts him in jeopardy and does not give horse and rider a straight run out of the starting stall on to the main track.

In 2010, LOOKIN AT LUCKY was severely bothered leaving the gate and forced further back than jockey Garrett  Gomez and trainer Bob Baffert wanted. That ‘Lucky' finished sixth, weaving his way through traffic, was an indication that he could have done much better had he not been in post one. His win in the Preakness two weeks later further underscored that point.

This year, ARCHARCHARCH went from logical contender to a complete toss after he drew post one. Moreover, he paid a severe price for that post draw during the Derby:  Pushed inward at the break---which played a role in Jon Court's saddle slipping out from under him---‘Archie' regained his footing but also took a few bad steps and subsequently broke a bone that has led to his premature retirement from the sport.

Through the years—even before the advent of super large Derby fields—the only horse in a quarter century to win from post one was FERDINAND in 1986 and it took the greatest ride I have ever seen, by the legendary Bill Shoemaker, to overcome a terrible start from the inside post.

Frankly, rather than describing Shoemaker's amazing performance, I strongly urge readers to see it for yourself either on Youtube, or better still in person at the Derby Museum, on the grounds of Churchill Downs.  The Kentucky Derby Museum has a rich library of previous Derbies available for your viewing pleasure.

Getting back to how to solve the post #1 problem--- and it does need to be solved even though CD officials repeatedly have ignored it:  I strongly would urge Churchill to build a single 16 stall gate to be left permanently in the chute at the head of the stretch where the Derby and other 1-1/4 mile races begin.

A 16 horse Derby still would be tight, but manageable.

It still would provide enough starting stalls for all but the most marginal Derby contenders. Most of all, it would be Churchill's best way to minimize the chances for that proverbial accident that is waiting to happen.

Do we really need to see such a preventable accident take down several horses and riders in the Kentucky Derby—on national TV no less?

This year also, we had another issue rear up and bite the integrity of the Kentucky Derby. As has occured in a few prior years,  a serious Derby contender—SWAY AWAY—was excluded from the race this year, as the 21st ranked horse on the Graded Stakes earnings list. While I will not re state all arguments already made in previous columns (for other publications), or repeat the nuances of similar calls for changes to the eligibility conditions for the Derby—I simply will reiterate the main point in those columns and public calls for change before getting on to another needed change that should not provoke much argument.

Basically, the Graded Stakes earnings picked up in 2 year old races does not make sense when they are treated at equal value with important Graded Stakes for 3 year olds.

No doubt that Grade 1- stakes at one mile or longer for 2 year olds (ie. the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Champagne Stakes and Norfolk Stakes) should, or could be counted as they are, but there is no logical reason to include the earnings in any Graded sprint stakes for 2 year olds, or any Grade-3 stakes at any distance for 2 year olds on the turf.

That all such Graded stakes for 2 year olds carry as much weight in Derby eligibility rules as earnings accrued in the Wood Memorial, Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby and Santa Anita Derby,  defies common sense.  It also pushes some horses into early season Graded stakes for 2 year olds so they can get the earnings to qualify for the Derby and permits their connections to run them in the Derby even though they have not done anything significant since the distances got longer and the competition got tougher. Beyond that oft-suggested change and CD's lack of interest to address the matter, here is something they know they should do:

Change the rule that prohibits an “also eligible list”.

For years, CD officials have maintained the need to prohibit an also eligible list because of fears it would confuse bettors who make early wagers on the Derby via “advance wagering.”

Well this year CD officials did not have a problem opening up advance wagering to the Pick Three that included the Kentucky Oaks on Friday; the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic on Saturday and the Derby itself. This year, the Woodford Reserve had an also eligible list and that did not cause any problems with the advance wagering on the two-day special Pick Three.  

So, with that, I think we will see an also eligible list for next year's Kentucky Derby. If that had been the case this year---even with a 20 horse field---Sway Away would have gotten into the field.  And oh by the way, if you liked Bruno DeJulio's clocker reports on eventual winner ANIMAL KINGDOM, (he raved about AK's workout on dirt April 30), you probably would have tried an Animal Kingdom-Sway Away exacta. Next to Animal Kingdom, Sway Away had the most impressive workouts of all the other horses pointing for the race.

The third thing I would like to address here---for future Derbies---is a suggestion for horseplayers who seem to have lost some perspective in the modern age of stats and trends that spell out the do's and don't for Derby success.

For the most part, we often are told by assorted Derby pundits how this horse can't win because he has not done this, or that; or, has not raced within a specified amount of time; or, has only worked once; or, is being trained by someone who never has been involved in the most electrifying, most entertaining two minutes in the world of sport.

Guess what? In case you have not noticed, just about every ‘rule of thumb' that used to govern the way the Derby was run and won has been broken in the past decade.

Trainer  Michael Matz did it in his first Derby with BARBARO in 2006—off a taboo five week layoff. 

Trainer Graham Motion in his first Derby with Animal Kingdom—did Matz one better, off a taboo six week layoff and no previous races on dirt and only four previous lifetime starts, the fewest number of races for any Derby winner since 1918.

There have been a handful of other trainers who similarly laid the groundwork for breaking ‘Derby Rules' that were so potent in a bygone era when horses raced a dozen or more times before they reached the First Saturday in May. All such trends have been muted or were sniffed out one by one ever since Canadian trainer David Cross took Sunny's Halo to Arkansas, ran him only twice—which was another taboo--- and decisively beat a deep and talented 1983 Derby field. 

That Derby included the eventual Belmont stakes winner CAVEAT; Travers winner PLAY FELLOW and the eventual divisional champion SLEW O' GOLD, among several other major stakes winners.

At the bottom line, we horseplayers continue to make a basic mistake in the Derby---by eliminating horses who are improving, have distance pedigrees and or winning form at nine furlongs and are in the hands of top notch horsemen who did not go to Churchill Downs merely to have a horse in the starting gate.

Interestingly, Matz and Motion were both schooled in their craft through many years of working with long distance turf horses in the hills of Maryland and Pennsylvania. Billy Turner Jr., trainer of Seattle Slew in 1977 came from that school of training. So did Barclay Tagg, who won his Derby debut with FUNNY CIDE in 2003. Frankly, I would suggest that we have not seen the last Derby winner trained by an experienced  horseman who comes from that type of background. I would further suggest that we should realize that such well schooled horsemen are the best judges of the true condition of legit Derby contenders and we would be most wise to trust them with the steps they are taking to fine tune a top performance on the First Saturday in May.

ADDED NOTE: Regarding a Special Preakness Preview Section, similar to the one we had for the Kentucky Derby.

This will be put on the web site, beginning late Friday night, or early Saturday morning and will permit full access to the site through Monday, May 23, two days after the Preakness.

The special Preakness Package will cost $25, same as the Derby package and will include my overview of all of the horses pointing for the Preakness; Lauren Stich's Pedigree Proflies and our Performance Notes from the Derby and other races leading up to the Preakness. The Preakness Package will of course be updated daily and include Bruno De Julio's invaluable Workout Reports in his special daily column that proved so popular during Derby week.

More on our Workout Coverage: Bruno will be providing workouts at Churchill through the end of the week and will be going to the Fair Hill training Center to get video footage on Animal Kingdom, as well as to see how he is doing back on his home grounds. Bruno also will be at Pimlico for some workout coverage during Preakness week before returning to Churchill for additional Preakness training moves by the contenders still stabled there. He will return to Southern California soon afterwards to resume supervision of our national workout coverage at Hollywood Park before moving on to Del Mar in mid July. Within  very few weeks, we also will be adding workouts from Belmont Park and the Saratoga training track while we continue our top notch workout coverage at Churchill Downs from this moment forward through the conclusion of Churchill's  spring meet. Of course, when the action shifts to Del Mar and Saratoga in late July www.GradeOneRacoing.com will be there, providing our exclusive Workout Reports; Pedigree Profiles, and Performance Notes not available anywhere else, in print or on the Internet.   

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Have had to deal with recurring  sore throat issues this past week and this is my first blog or column in two weeks. My apologies.  

In the meantime you should really take a close look every day to the PREFERRED PERFORMERS LIST  that has been zeroing in on many winning horses supplied by our excellent Workout Analysts in Florida, Kentucky and Southern California. Frankly on an individual and collective basis, their work has been outstanding!

Also in the meantime, Lauren Stich has been accelerating her output by writing more columns on Triple Crown prospects and Freshman Sires while providing insightful pedigree analysis for the many new 2 year olds who are beginning to race in Kentucky and Southern California. Using those pedigree reports in tandem with our workout analysis is a strong way to play these newcomers, some of whom will win races even when there is no real money showing up in the tote.    

In a few weeks, while we maintain a strong presence through the Triple Crown season and will be full time at Churchill Downs through the duration of their spring meet, we will begin to add NY workout analysis to our stable of major tracks.

In other words, www.GradeOneRacing.com has hummed along at its usual good pace while I began to attack the recurring nature of my physical issues. But, no matter where you were last week, it was hard not to notice or think about the following:

UNCLE MO's physical issues should keep him on the sidelines for the Kentucky Derby. But if he goes, he will have one subtle thing going for him that could put him back in the game: The rest of this year's Kentucky Derbgy crop has disappointed on many levels.

Instead of TO HONOR AND SERVE, THE FACTOR, SWAY AWAY and several other horses who earned triple digit Beyer Speed Figures early in the season, the average Beyer Fig. for the most recent group of Grade-1 and Grade-2 prep races for the 2011 Kentucky Derby has been 93, a level of performance that rates below last year' suspect group.

 As I wrote last month in this space, I did not like trainer Billy Mott's game plan for To Honor and Serve—that included only a pair of 2011 prep races at 1-1/8 miles. I liked it less after watching the colt struggle home third behind front running SOLDAT and the well traveled, but decidedly mediocre GOURMET DINNER in the Fountain of Youth stakes on Feb. 26.

 I did not like starting To Honor and Serve in a nine furlong race off six moderate workouts one bit. Not when a 7 furlong start in the Hutcheson on the same day at the same track--regardless  where he might have finished---followed by two more prep races at nine furlongs would have set him up for the rigors of the 1-1/4 mile Kentucky Derby—the only race on Mott's fabulous resume he has not really had a chance to win.

That aside, the extra stress put on To Honor and Serve to play catch up ball probably contributed to his suspensory problem and it can only be hoped that Billy can recover this colt's full measure of talent sometime later in the season.

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THE RESULTS OF THE ONE DAY, $5,000 + SANTA ANITA HANDICAP CONTEST ON MAR. 5

AND THE RESULTING WAGERS MADE BY WINNING PLAYERS.

This FREE CONTEST was only open to fully subscribed seasonal and yearly players.

The top 20 not only earned playable vouchers from $60 to $500 apiece, but the top two earned tickets to the $600,000 Horseplayer's World Series  at the Orleans Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas next winter. (For the complete list of prize awards for the Santa Anita Handicap Contest, please go to the Contest Page elsewhere on this web site.) 

Here are the top 20 who won that contest: 

1. "rainmaker" Matthew Verville. . . 922 points
2 " Mayhemily" Emily Gullikson. . . . 844
3 "Dbrew"  Diane Brew. . . . . . . . . 744.
4 "Elsimone"  Alan Levitt. . . . . . . . 670
5 "David E"  David Erwin. . . . . . . . 622
6 "tcashr" Cash Rowland. . . . . . . .  620
7 "compleat" John Bonner . . . . . . . 610
8 "agentorange"  Joseph  Mudy. . . .  554
9 "RisenStar" Tom Chernesky. . . . . .522
10 "ei"  Eric Isaacson. . . . . . . . . .   520
11 "Haluska" Dustin Haluska. . . . . . . 506
12 "mbeychok" Michael Beychok. . . .466
13 "Robindawe" Robin Dawe. . . .  . .466
14 "Marty E"  Marty Erman . . . . . . . 464
15 "quick rick"  Rick Sieler. . . . . . . 432
16 "Bertrando" WAyne Bertrand. . . . 410
17 "Matt J" Matt Jaimet. . . . . . . . . 398
18 "dslayer" Jose Suarez. . . . . . . . .388
19 "horseplaygs" George Slywka. . . .370
20 "William"  William Kelley . . . . . .366

 When all voucher plays for the Santa Anita Derby were sent in to me Friday night, April 8, no one selected MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE, so all those voucher plays worth nearly $2,000 went down the tubes. In fact, only one player---MARTY ERMAN --selected COMMA TO THE TOP as his preferred play and he did earn a very modest net profit of $78 when 'Comma' just got nailed on the wire. Good move Marty, who was quite happy that he won something for his efforts. FRankly, it surprised me that so many contest winners went for the top three betting favorites despite the fact that they held no edge at all in the SA Derby.

The other handicapping contest, still in progress, is the $5,000 + Fantasy Contest we started in February that is built around selecting horses who are likely to start and compete in the Kentucky Derby.

There are still two Graded prep stakes yet to be run, the Lexington at Keeneland Sat. Apr. 23 and the Derby Trial at Churchill on April 30.

Points can be earned in those two races by horses on any Fantasy Player's 'active roster' and of course, points will be earned by the top finishers in the Kentucky Derby, May 7. (Please see the rules and scoring procedures on the Contest Page.)  

This of course, was a free contest open to Charter Members who joined us during 2010 as well as fully subscribed players. A total of 32 prizes are up for grabs in the two division and these prizes also will include tickets to the $600,000 Orleans tourney next winter as well as another round of potentially lucrative betting vouchers to be played on the Belmont Stakes, June 11.

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Except for one last comment, that's it for now. . .I still need my sleep to get back to full strength.

 My comment is this: Many of you have written me to point out how effective this site is. Much appreciate those E-mails. At the same time, this unique site is making an unprecedented  attempt to provide horseplayers of every level of skill and experience with high class, professional insights about the races we all love to play.

For us to "make it" in the classic sense of the word, we need those of you who find value in our information, to disseminate what we are doing in notes to your favorite Internet Forums, including DRF, ESPN, Blood Horse and other legit blogs and discussion groups. Also, for any referral for a fully paid Seasonal or Yearly Subscription, www.GradeOneRacing.com will pay you $50 and offer that subscription to the new member at a 20 percent discount. (Said player should E-mail me that he was referred to us by you.)  

Frankly, all our advertising to date has been word of mouth and through selected handicapping seminars we have conducted in different parts of the country. We truly appreciate the tremendous support we have been getting from our loyal subscribers.

Should you be so inclined to send any note to any public forum, we would greatly appreciate it if you copied me in at Steve@GradeOneRacing.com

Thanks Again. . .All the Best to All of You/SteveD

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Only A Handful Rate Realistic Chances To Win!

After watching and reviewing all the prep races for this year's Kentucky Derby, including several in person, I am convinced that there are only a handful of horses who can possibly win this year's race.

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Right now, I list only three: UNCLE MO, PREMIER PEGASUS and DIALED IN, plus two tiers of 21 more who are still in the game, but will either join the top trio, or completely fall out of the picture based on their performances in the Florida Derby on Saturday, the Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby AND and Illinois Derby next Saturday and the Arkansas Derby on April 16.

Notice I did not mention the $750,000 Blue Grass stakes at Keeneland on April 16. That is because the race will be run on Polytrack. Just as the $500,000 Spiral stakes at Turfway was run on a similar synthetic surface last Saturday, the Blue grass is essentially irrelevant for analyzing the relative abilities of the horses who run in those races. (It is only relevant from a conditioning standpoint.)

Also, beyond the top few, I believe there are at least 15 more horses, who can play major roles in the Derby outcome as well as vie for exotic wagering positions down to fifth place. Some of them, including Spiral winner ANIMAL KINGDOM could move up into the top echelon. After all, this versatile, stretch running son of turf star Leroidesanimeaux has shown talent rallying strongly on synthetics and turf and he looked in peak health on Saturday.

Should Animal Kingdom train strongly on dirt at Churchill Downs next month, owner Barry Irwin (Team Valor) will put him in the Derby on merit.

Here then is my current list, divided into three different groups, with salient comments.

1: UNCLE MO. . .Has run like a superstar in all career starts and his 2011 debut in a propped up, nearly phony Timely Writer ‘stakes' was a smooth performance that included a strong final quarter mile in 22.8 seconds, a clocking only produced in public workouts or races by the very best of horses. He is expected to be ready to move up a notch in performance next week in the Wood Memorial.

2: PREMIER PEGASUS. . .Ran well for third in THE FACTOR's 7 furlong San Vicente, Feb. 20, then exploded with a strong wide rally to win the 1-1/16 mile San Felipe stakes by 7 lengths on Mar. 12. This colt's development parallels the late blooming maturation of a horse from the past—PLEASANT COLONY—winner of the Wood Memorial and Kentucky Derby for trainer Johnny Campo in 1981. We should see more of the same in the Santa anita Derby on Apr. 9.

3: DIALED IN. . .Lightly raced deep closer who needs a contested pace, might not get that scenario in the Florida Derby on Saturday, but all he needs is to stay in good shape and he will almost assuredly get a fast, contested pace in the 10 furlong Kentucky Derby. It is in fact extremely rare when the Derby does not have a fast, contested pace.

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I list seven horses as eligible to move into the top echelon, based on how they perform in the next round of preps and/or, or in Churchill Downs workouts:

TO HONOR AND SERVE, THE FACTOR, SOLDAT, MUCHO MACHO MAN, SWAY AWAY, JAYCITO and ANIMAL KINGDOM.

The third group includes marginal contenders who may be worth a look in various exotics pools:

PANTS ON FIRE, NEHRO, ARCHARCHARCH, ELITE ALEX, DECISIVE MOMENT, CRIMSON CHINA,  TWICE THE APPEAL, ASTROLOGY, FLASHPOINT, SILVER MEDALLION, CALEB'S POSSE,  STAY THIRSTY, SANTIVA and  MASTER OF HOUNDS.

The second tier starts with my fourth ranked Derby contender:

4: TO HONOR AND SERVE. . .Winner of two Graded stakes at one mile and 1-1/8 miles in NY last fall, must show vast improvement over his weak seasonal debut in Saturday's Florida Derby.

 5: THE FACTOR. . .Proved he could carry his vaunted speed 1-1/16 miles on a speed favoring Oaklawn Park racing surface and probably will go back there for 1-1/8 mile Arkansas Derby,  Certainly a very fast horse, but is likely to encounter more early speed in the 1-1/4 mile Kentucky Derby.

 6: SOLDAT. . .Won strongly with an easy lead in the 1-1/8 mile Fountain of Youth and might get the same pace edge in the Florida Derby at same distance on same track. Should he go to Kentucky, will be a major pace factor, perhaps doomed to duel with The Factor.

 7: MUCHO MACHO MAN has proven to be a natural router, albeit a cut below the very best in the division. Was gritty third to PANTS ON FIRE in the Louisiana Derby on Saturday after throwing a horse shoe leaving the gate.

 8: SWAY AWAY. . .Deep closer had no chance catching The Factor on the speed favoring Oaklawn oval. Was far back early and very wide while finishing sixth with strong gallop out. Any improivement in the Arkansas Derby and he will be on my list to use in exotics on Derby Day.

  9: JAYCITO. . .Has been a winter project  for Hall of Famer Bob Baffert and his fair second place finish to PREMIER PEGASUS in the San Felipe was a respectable start. Gets one more chance to show he belongs

 10: ANIMAL KINGDOM. . Looked like a good horse sweeping around the field to win the Spiral as noted above. . .Must train exceptionally well on the dirt at Churchill to be taken seriously and we will have www.GradeOneRacing.com's  chief clocker,  Bruno DeJulio on hand at Keeneland and Churchill beginning Apr. 1 to give his excellent workout analysis, so stay tuned..

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 The third tier runs 14 horses deep and starts with my 12th ranked Derby contender, Pants On Fire:

 11: PANTS ON FIRE. . .Won the Louisiana Derby with an improved performance that was signaled by the workout reports we received from our Florida clocker, Perry Gastis. Not convinced he is close to the ability of UNCLE MO, etc. But is one of many on this third tier list who will deserve an exotics look on Derby Day.   

 12: NEHRO. . .Continued his development with a very sharp second to PANTS ON FIRE. One of three possible Derby starters for trainer Steve Asmussen.

 13: SILVER MEDALLION. . .Asmussen trainee won the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields in a style that suggests he could move up many steps on this list if he runs strongly in the Santa Anita Derby on Apr. 9.  

 14: ARCHARCHARCH. . .Fair performances so far in Arkansas, a fringe contender.

 15: ELITE ALEX. . .Was no real factor in the Louisiana Derby, but did show flashes in allowance races at Oaklawn.

 16: DECISIVE MOMENT. . .Was OK in a pair of rich Derby preps to date, but must improve several lengths to hit the board in the Kentucky Derby.

 17: CRIMSON CHINA. . .Stablemate to ANIMAL KINGDOM, won the ungraded Rushaway as if he has a future. Likely to go in the Blue Grass to get the earnings he needs to make the race, but even if he wins, we only will be able to effectively judge his level of fitness.

 18: TWICE THE APPEAL. . Was my key longshot to watch (in my comments before a large crowd Saturday night at the Sunland Park Charity Dinner and then again in my handicapping seminar at Sunland on Sunday morning)  and then he promptly rallied to win the $800,000 race at a $50 mutuel while I only used him on exotic tickets that did not connect! My bad. Seems to be a natural stretch runner who would benefit from a fast, contested pace.

 19: ASTROLOGY. . .The third Asmussen prospect, finished a good second to TWICE THE APPEAL in the Sunland Derby and that was the first start for this horse since two good performances at Churchill last fall. Still, is being rushed a bit to make the Derby and may skip it in favor of the Lexington (at Keeneland Apr. 23) or the one mile Derby Trial, at Churchill, Apr. 30)  as possible prep choices for a Preakness run.

 20: FLASHPOINT. . .Very speedy sprinter whose connections say they want to try him long--before too long. Definitely would contribute to a pace meltdown if they win the 7-furlong Swale this Saturday and go on to Louisville. Personally, I would point him for the Met Mile against older horses at Belmont Park.

 21: CALEB'S POSSE. . Rallying second in a pair of Oaklawn stakes to date suggest potential exotics material. .

 22: STAY THIRSTY. . Second stringer in Uncle Mo's stable, won the Gotham at Aqueduct, but will have to improve a lot in the Florida Derby to remain on this list.

 23: SANTIVA. . .Went well for second in the Risen Star behind Mucho Macho Man on Feb. 19, but skipped the Louisiana Derby and will probably go in the Blue Grass Stakes on the synthetic surface. I think that is a bad move, but if the horse looks strong, win or lose he will belong in the Derby field.

 24: MASTER OF HOUNDS. . Finished well enough in the $2 million UAE Derby in Dubai on Saturday for trainer Aidan O'Brien  to seriously consider sending him to Louisville.

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At the bottom line, we are only five weeks away from the 137TH Run for the Roses and if Uncle Mo retains or improves upon his exposed form, the list of serious potential winners will be very limited. The same can be said for Dialed In and/or Premier Pegasus. Should all three run below expectations in their next prep races, than we will be looking at another wild and woolly rodeo on the First Saturday in May.

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IMPORTANT NOTE for WWW.GRADEONERACING.COM'S lucrative KENTUCKY DERBY FANTASY CONTEST: FInal roster changes only can be made on MARCH 30.

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Last week in this space, I reproduced a list of about a dozen horses who were on our invaluable PREFERRED PERFORMERS list for Saturday, Mar 12 races at the tracks we cover. 

The list, which is not a “Horses to Watch List”, per se, always identifies horses that have worked or raced so well that our clockers and track observers want you to know they are moving forward in their preparation for specific races.

When you are looking at entries on our site, you can easily find our professional insights into the workouts, racetrack performances and pedigrees for many horses set to race that day.

The Preferred Performers List, as well as its companion the HORSES TO AVOID list is offered as a short cut for you. It includes only those horses who have made strong positive (and/or negative) impressions. On a personal note, I print this list out every day and use it in my play.

While I do not use the list as an imperative to bet all horses on the list, they often outperform their odds and can be important keys to various plays. Remember, we have workout reports amnd performance notes and pedigree insights on many horses who do not make the  Preferred Performers list.  All of this info should be utlized for serious play.

Yet, last week's list for Saturday as well as many other similar Preferred Performers have scored at nice prices . (Go look at last week's column for yourself and you will see exactly what I mean.)  

This is of course, a relatively new tool, so let me encourage you to take a good look at the  PREFERRED PERFORMERS included in this column for Saturday's races.  Your feedback is welcome.

Gulfstream Park

Saturday, March 19. . . Race 3

 CAL NATION

 POSITIVE PALM MEADOWS WORKOUT REPORT

Mar 6th, 2011. . . Finish: 1:01.1 - Two extremely talented colts Brethren and Cal Nation going very efficiently, and strongly here. They weren't asked a smidge...and these two competitors were just waiting for the green light. Very very strong. Last quarter in 24 flat! LQQK +

 POSITIVE PALM MEADOWS WORKOUT REPORT

Feb 27th, 2011 . . .Finish: 1:02.2 - Pletcher team of Cal Nation, and California working 5f here. Cal Nation not asked at all; hewld in fact and was best of the two. Very good gallop out, and very good overall! LQQK +

 POSITIVE  RACE PERFORMANCE

Feb 5th, 2011. . . 8th race GP. . . 7 furlongs;  MdSpWt

Here's a "runner" from the Pletcher barn. Was 6-5 first out; chased the solid pace into the stretch and left the field in his dust while under a hand-ride to the wire.

Good final time. Definitely one to WATCH. +

 CANE GARDEN BAY

 POSITIVE PALM MEADOWS WORKOUT REPORT

Mar 13th, 2011. . .Finish: 1:01. - Really doing well lately…Finished up in 24.1, and out strongly. Very nicely done. FQLLQW +

 POSITIVE PALM MEADOWS WORKOUT REPORT

Feb 5th, 2011. . . Finish: 1:00.2 - Went well here today in an Arnold team. Was a few lengths best over mate, and finished up full of run. Very good now, FQLLQW +

 DANCE CITY

 POSITIVE PALM MEADOWS WORKOUT REPORT

Mar 6th, 2011. . .Finish: 1:00.4 - Team of Maple Forest and Dance City doing excellent work here! They finished up in 23.4 after going off in 24.2. Very strong finish and gallop out for both! LQQK +

 POSITIVE PALM MEADOWS WORKOUT REPORT

Feb 27th, 2011 . . .Finish: 49.3 - Pletcher Dance City and Pratereo working easy in company here today. They got the last quarter in 23.4, and galloped out strongly!

Dance City was full of run, and visually best. LQQK +

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Gulfstream Park

Saturday, March 19. . . Race 4

 MAPLE FOREST  

POSITIVE PALM MEADOWS WORKOUT REPORT

Mar. 6, 2011. . .Finish: 1:00.4-Team of Maple Forest and Dance City doing excellent work here! They finished up in 23.4 after going off in 24.2. Very strong finish and gallop out for both! LQQK +

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Gulfstream Park

Saturday, March 19. . . Race 6

 TETELESTAI  

POSITIVE PALM MEADOWS WORKOUT REPORT

Mar 6th, 2011. . .Finish: 1:03.3 - Pletcher team of Tetelestai and unraced Kissing Santa working OK for 5/8. They went considerably faster than given time. They finished up in 24,3 and galloped out strongly. Well done for both. Very good! FQLLQW +

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Gulfstream Park

Saturday, March 19. . . Race 7

HONEST GOLD

POSITIVE PALM MEADOWS WORKOUT REPORT

Mar 6th, 2011. . . Finish: 47.4 - Kimmel trainee looked sharp and was fast here. Final q in 23.4, and out strong Very nice move! LQQK +

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Gulfstream Park

Saturday, March 19. . . Race 8

 LUCAS BRADY

 POSITIVE GULFSTREAM WORKOUT REPORT 

Mar 11th, 2011. . .Finish: 49 - McPeek trainee went in 47, not 49! Got the final quarter in 23.2 and went out very strongly in 59.4. Was a machine here! Excellent! LQQK +

SLIGOVITZ 

POSITIVE PALM MEADOWS WORKOUT REPORT

Mar 6th, 2011. . . Finish: 1:01.4 - Sligovitz and Thunder Ball working together for Baker. Sligovitz was hard held til late, and was ultimately let go to finish 2 lengths or so in front of Thunder. Sligo looked terrific here. FQLLQW +

--------------------------------------------- ----------------------------- --

OAKLAWN PARK

Saturday, March 19. . . Race 9

BLIND LUCK

POSITIVE SANTA ANITA WORKOUT REPORT

Mar 5th, 2011. . .Finish: 1:12.1 - Went well here for Hollendorfer here and seems his plan to save her feet worked.  . .Traveling A-OK. Nice drill on the training track, in fact, Awesome.

Feb 27th, 2011 . .Finish: 1:00.6 -Rocked through the turns and finished with something left.

Handles the tight turns well of the training track. She travels well.

Feb 21st, 2011. . .Finish: 48.4 - Worked well and finished with something left down the lane. Looked good.

--------------------------------- --------------------

OAKLAWN PARK

Saturday, March 19. . . Race 10

SWAY AWAY

POSITIVE SANTA ANITA WORKOUT REPORTS

Mar 12th, 2011. . .Finish: 1:23.6 - Went from the pole and worked in very sharp manner. Went in 58.4, 111.3 and 123.3, fastest work at this distance, this meet.  Showed off good speed and stamina here. He ran all the way and should be all set.  Added Clocker comment: We still do question however whether this one can route. He was going nowhere last time until The Factor slowed down late. Added comment from SteveD: Find out in the Rebel. If he handles the task, he will be a major Derby player.

Mar 4th, 2011. . .Finish: 1:02.8 - Just a leg stretcher here for Bonde. Carrying great weight and flesh out of fast effort in the San Vincente Stakes.

POSITIVE RACE PERFORMANCE

Feb 20th, 2011 . .8th race SA. . .  7 furlongs; San Vicente Stakes-G2

Track "wet fast", speed favoring. . .5-2 second choice, was idle since August. Ran a big race against the bias as he dropped far off the strong pace and came running late to be beaten less than a length by favorite THE FACTOR. Good final time. WATCH +

-------------------------------------- ------------------------------------

SANTA ANITA PARK

Saturday, Mar. 19. . .Race 5.

LA NEZ

POSITIVE SANTA ANITA WORKOUT REPORT

Feb 22nd, 2011 . .Santa Anita Finish: 47.6 - Looked grand this morning and was full of run finishing in 36.1. Carrying great weight. Nice move. LQQK. +

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Hardly!

Just so you know what you're missing, here is a sampling of our current list of Preferred Performers on the web site for Saturday races at Gulfstream, Santa Anita and Tampa Bay Downs, plus a few additonal horses from the list for Sunday's races.

Some of the horses on this list worked exceptionally well as judged by our exclusive staff of private clockers supervised by Bruno DeJulio who are stationed in South Florida and Southern California this winter, with more workout analysis to come from NY and Kentuckly during the spring. Others horses on the Preferred Performers list ran strongly and will deserve a closer look in the races they are entered in this weekend.

The intent—as with all the material on this web site—is to provide you, our subscribers with professional class handicapping tools, hints and insights that will help you in your handicapping and in making your various wagers. 

I can attest to the power of this type of information. I have hit several high paying Trifectas and multi race wagers---including a six figure pick six---exclusively relying upon the info on this site.

Beyond that, we also have a ‘Horses to Avoid' list —a list of horses who must prove themselves as ready for serious racing, after a negative workout and/or negative performance that will cost you money if you pay it no heed.

 While we make no claim that all the horses on our Preferred Performers Lists will win, we regularly receive E-mails from subscribers who have enjoyed excellent results using this unique handicapping feature as well as Lauren Stich's invauable Pedigree Analysis for first time starters and Turfers  Frankly, the Info and insights that you find here can not be found anywhere else.

I will say no more.

The  listings and the descriptions you see below speak for themselves.

 AQUEDUCT 
YAWANNA TWIST. . .Saturday, March 12th Race 9.
Preferred Performer 
POSITIVE WORKOUTS

Mar 3rd, 2011
Gulfstream Park Finish: 1:13.3s - Worked great here for Dutrow. Is maintaining a sharp edge,
and is on ready. Great finish and gallop out, while not asked. Very well done! LQQK +

Feb 25th, 2011
Gulfstream Park Finish: 1:00.1s - Yawanna Twist and Reedeemed working for RD.
They finished heads up, however Yawanna was much best visually.
Excellent mainetenance for this talented colt. LQQK +

Jan 23rd, 2011
Gulfstream Park Finish: 1:15.3s - Still coming aroung beautifully for Dutrow.
He's done a great job with this guy to this point! Terrific! LQQK +

Jan 17th, 2011
Gulfstream Park Finish: 47.2s - Was very strong here throughout from the gate.
Looking very well…will FQLLQW +
 ---------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------
 GULFSTREAM PARK
R VICARIOUS GIRL. . .Saturday, March 12th Race 4  
POSITIVE WORKOUTS
Mar 3rd, 2011
Gulfstream Park Finish: 1:00.4s - Worked in 2 team with Voodoointhevibes for Wes
and was easily best. Not asked, and galloped out strongly.
This claimer is good now. LQQK +
 
EASTSIDE TRAIN. . . Saturday, March 12th Race 7 
POSITIVE WORKOUTS
Jan 29th, 2011
Gulfstream Park Finish: 59.3s - Most impressive move yet from this guy!
Good throughout, followed up with a very strong gallop out! LQQK +

SCHOOLYARD CAT. . .Saturday, March 12th Race 8  
POSITIVE WORKOUT
Feb 10th, 2011
Gulfstream Park Finish: 1:00.2s - Went very nicely for Martin.
Got hold of the track and motored home in 24 seconds. Golloped out well. Very good! FQLLQW +
 
UNCLE MO. . .Saturday, March 12th Race 8  
POSITIVE WORKOUTS AT PALM MEADOWS 
Mar 6th, 2011
Palm Meadows Finish: 48.4s - Went beautifully here today. Time is unspectacular,
however everything else about this work was amazing! Went in 24.4,
and was out another 1/4 in 114.1. Excellent! LQQK +

Feb 27th, 2011
Palm Meadows Finish: 1:00.3s - Went fractions of 13, 36.3, 100.3…out to the 6f in 114.
Was awesome here today once again! Could have run away from Stay Thirsty
 who has being asked pretty good to keep up, however stay heads up.
Appears on the right track to say the least! LQQK +

Feb 20th, 2011
Palm Meadows Finish: 1:01.2s - Time was ordinary, but fractions say more!
Went off slowly, got the interior quarter in 24, and the last in 23.1!
We heard people commenting Mo looked "ordinary"…But, this work was not ordinary at all!
It's a methodical training pattern that, promotes soundness, adds bootom, and to be certain,
WILL evoke top efforts from a very talented horse! LQQK! +

Feb 13th, 2011
Palm Meadows Finish: 47.2s - Uncle Mo was terrific here! Was not asked while working with
Stay Thirsty once again, and super impressive in the way he got over the track.
Extremely talented Derby colt, looking the pert. LQQK +

QUEENSPLATEKITTEN. . .Saturday, March 12th Race 9
POSITIVE RACE PERFORMANCE
Feb 5th, 2011 6TH GP; Alw-N1X. . .1mi on turf.
 6-5 favorite rallied four wide from behind the slow pace and finished fast
 with a final 1/4 mile in :22-4/5. Clear at the wire. Very nice! WATCH +
 
TIZWAY. . . Saturday, March 12th Race 10. 
POSITIVE WORKOUTS AT PALM MEADOWS
Feb 26th, 2011
Palm Meadows Finish: 1:13.3s - Bond trainee went off very slowly, then smoked home
while striding out well getting the final quarter in 24 flat! Very good! LQQK +

Feb 19th, 2011
Palm Meadows Finish: 1:14.4s - Went very well, fluidly throughout. Asked only mildly,
and finished well within. A very good move turned in here. LQQK +
 
FURTHEST LAND. . .Sunday, March 13th Race 5.
POSITIVE RACE PERFORMANCE
Feb 12th, 2011; 4GP,  OC100K-ALW. .  1mi. on turf.
Idle since June 2010; but was 5-2 favorite here. Lagged behind the soft early pace.
Swung out for the stretch run and finished fast to nail pacesetter BALTIMORE BOB
nearing the wire. Flew home with a final 1/4 mile in :22-1/5. WATCH +
 
GRACEONTOUR. . .Sunday, March 13th Race 7  
POSITIVE WORKOUT
Mar 4th, 2011
Gulfstream Park Finish: 47.1s - Worked so strongly here, this time from the gate.
Finished up in 23.4, and galloped out strongly! FQLLQW +
 
HOW SHE ROLLS. . .Sunday, March 13th Race 7 
POSITIVE PALM MEADOWS WORKOUT
Feb 6th, 2011
Palm Meadows Finish: 35s - Breen trainee was awesmoe.
Look out for this one when he goes! Terrific throughout this drill. FQLLQW +
 
RAGING WIT. . .Sunday, March 13th Race 8 
POSITIVE WORKOUT
Jan 20th, 2011
Gulfstream Park Finish: 47.1s - Still working well here while decisively best of a 2 Mott team.
Very good! FQLLQW +

DATTS COOL. . .Sunday, March 13th Race 9  
POSITIVE PALM MEADOWS WORKOUT
Mar 6th, 2011
Palm Meadows Finish: 49s - Was very good here for MH! Final quarter in 24,
followed by a strong gallop out! Seems to be improving; very good right now. FQLLQW +

SASSYS DREAM . . .Sunday, March 13th Race 10 
POSITIVE PALM MEADOWS WORKOUT
Jan 29th, 2011
Palm Meadows Finish: 1:02.4s - Went fast (faster than given time) and under control in a 2 team drill  with Quick Delivery. Finished under a hold. . . She could not have looked more impressive!
Terrific! LQQK +
----------------------------- ----------------------------
SANTA ANITA PARK
 
HOME SWEET ASPEN. . .Saturday, March 12th Race 1  
POSITIVE WORKOUT
Mar 2nd, 2011
Hollywood Park Finish: 48.2s - Caught the eye to the outside of stablemate
 No Afillyation, as the daughter of Candy Ride broke three lengths behind her mate
 at the 4f pole, then responded full of run when lightly asked inside the final eighth
to finish under a hammerlock hold,  beating her rival by a head.
The visually impressive move continued past the wire, as she galloped out tons the best
Splits were: 12.3, 24.2, to the wire in 48.2, galloping out in 1:01.3, 1:14.4, 1:28.2,
and finally finishing at the 5f pole in 1:44.1. LQQK +

POSITIVE RACE PERFORMANCE
Feb 19th, 2011. . .6SA (f)MdSpWt at 6f on "wet fast"track.
Chilly on the board first out for Sadler. Chased impressive winner MILDLY OFFENSIVE
 into the stretch and was no match but held well for second. WATCH +
 
PINK BLANKET . . .Saturday, March 12th Race 1
POSITIVE WORKOUT
Mar 6th, 2011
Santa Anita Finish: 1:03.4s - Went very well with Bejarano on board.
Finished in 24.4, 50 flat and out in 103.4. Breezing late. Looked good. FQLLQW. +

POSITIVE  RACE PERFORMANCE
Feb 4th, 2011. . .4SA (f)MdCl75K at 5-1/2F.
 9-5 favorite first out for Glatt. Broke slowly and spotted the field three lengths out of the gate. Rushed up to press the fast pace around the turn. Gained the lead into the stretch and pulled  clear but was run down late by TOP DEBUTANTE.
Finished clear in second. Claimed by O'Neill. WATCH +
 
LUNADA BAY. . .Saturday, March 12th Race 2
POSITIVE WORKOUTS 
Mar 4th, 2011
Hollywood Park Finish: 1:11.2s - Worked lights out here and went in 24, 34.4, 59.4
 and 111.2. Ridden out and finished well. LQQK. +

Feb 25th, 2011
Hollywood Park Finish: 59.4s - Caught the eye again, moving solo this time
 mid-morning full of run under a hand ride. Last week's big drill didn't seem to take
too much out of this son of Dixieland Band. We caught the work through splits
 of 11.3, 23.4, 36, finishing at the wire under a mild hold in 59.3. LQQK +

Feb 12th, 2011
Hollywood Park Finish: 1:12.2s - Went solo just after the break, moving a little green
 off the layoff but very willingly from the 4f to the 7f poles through splits of 12.2, 23.4,
35, 47.2 at the wire, continuing in 59.3, and finishing in 1:12.1. FQLLQW +
  
JAYCITO. . .Saturday, March 12th Race 8  
POSITIVE WORKOUTS FOR NEW TRAINER, BOB BAFFERT
Feb 28th, 2011
Santa Anita Finish: 58.6s - I don't get Awesome Patriot getting 113.1 and Jaycito 58.3.
We had Jaycito breaking 12 lenghts behind that workmate when rider on Awesome Patriot
sped away at the pole. Jaycito worked the same distance as Patriot and went in 110.2
on our watch. He looks great. Finished huge. LQQK. +

Feb 7th, 2011
Santa Anita Finish: 59.2s - Worked with Wegner, who ran in the Robert B Lewis.
Jaycito went very well. Chased early after breaking three behind.
Went in 59 flat to the wire and out in 111.1. Big late rush. LQQK. +
 
RUNFLATOUT. . . Saturday, March 12th Race 8  
POSITIVE RACE PERFORMANCE IN CAREER DEBUT
Jan 29th, 2011. . .2SA MdSpWt at 6F.
 2-1 second choice in debut for Sadler. Dueled outside favorite TOKUBETSU
 and kicked clear in the final furlong under a strong hand-ride.
Flew home in :23. Fast final time. One to follow. KEY RACE +
--------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- 

TAMPA BAY DOWNS
LIL BIT OFUN. . .Saturday, March 12th Race 7 
POSITIVE WORKOUT
Jan 12th, 2011
Gulfstream Park Finish: 49s - Tom Proctor trainee working lights out strong today.
Was only asked in the lane a bit, and finished like a bullet. Excellent right now! LQQK +
 
BEST LASS. . . Saturday, March 12th Race 8  
POSITIVE WORKOUT
Mar 4th, 2011
Gulfstream Park Finish: 1:00.3s - Nie mare worked with fast filly Salty Strike,
they were strong, finished even and controlled, then galloped out full of run! LQQK +
 
MISS SMARTY PANTS . . .Saturday, March 12th Race 10  
POSITIVE PALM MEADOWS WORKOUT
Mar 6th, 2011
Palm Meadows Finish: 50s - Outstanding in maintenance move.
Went smoothly and was always full of run. No ask, no effort, LQQK +
 
BRETHREN . . .Saturday, March 12th Race 11
POSITIVE PALM MEADOWS WORKOUT
Mar 6th, 2011
Palm Meadows Finish: 1:01.1s - Two extremely talented colts Brethren and Cal Nation going very efficiently
 and strongly here. They weren't asked a smidge...both were just waiting for the green light.
Very very strong. Last quarter  in 24. LQQK +
 
FREE ENTRY . . .Saturday, March 12th Race 11  
POSITIVE PALM MEADOWS WORKOUTS
Mar 6th, 2011
Palm Meadows Finish: 1:01.3s - Tiz the One, and Free Entry working a solid 5/8 in company here for 
Chad Brown. Both finished strong getting the final quarter in an unpressured 25.
Free Entry was doing this easier, and was very good! LQQK +

Feb 6th, 2011
Palm Meadows Finish: 48.3s - Was best of a Chad Brown. team. Looked very well late,
after going off in 25.3, came home in a super 23 flat! Out in 103. Excellent! LQQK +
 

On Saturday, Feb. 12 at Santa Anita Park, Marike Emery and her husband Tony had $1,000 to wager as the final link to the $7500 first place prize award she won in my handicapping contest that was based on the Breeders' Cup races last fall.

Skipping right to the bottom line, Marike and Tony scored a whole lot better than a pair of heavily bet favorites did in important stakes on a very good SA card held in picture perfect weather.

Where Tony thought correctly that TAPIZAR was a vulnerable betting favorite at 3-10 odds in the Robert Lewis Stakes for 3 year old Derby prospects, he punished himself for not helping Marike construct a winning Trifecta box with the rest of six horses left in the Grade-2 race.

“Tony was nocieably mad at himself for that failed opportunity and was knocked off his game for a few races, as most players are wont to do. “I had the right idea and the wrong trifecta layout,” he said in different ways with a few choice mumbled expletives thrown in.

If depression is anger turned inward as some psychologists say, Tony was on the verge. But the worthless mutual tickets did not deter Marike from seeing this simple, but reality based fact right after the lost opportunity was indeed lost:

“We still have more than $400 left on our betting voucher, ”she said . “All we need is one score to give us a good payday.”

So Marike, a promising handicapper, promptly picked and bet $50 on 4-1 shot EARNEDNEVERGIVEN, who won the next race, a 6-1/2 furlong affair on the downhill Santa Anita turf course.

The win definitely had a soothing effect on her partner in life and sharpened the young Canadian couple's resolve towards the task at hand. Frankly, on a personal level, I could see the dynamic shift as it reaffirmed for me that a good companion, a supportive, personal relationship can be as important to a professional horseplayer as intense knowledge of the game.

Turf was the key for Marike Emery.

By the ninth race on the card, it was abundantly clear that Marike, a producer of TV commercials in Toronto  and her partner in life have a good feel for turf races, as they lost all other bets, (without any further self criticism) and successfully wagered $50 more on BONITA STAR, a European 3-year-old filly making her American debut getting Lasix for the first time for a one mile turf race for 3-year-olds.

“Your (GradeOneRacing.com) pedigree expert, Lauren Stich, had a very good report about that horse's turf credentials on the web site,” Marike explained. . . “Getting Lasix also has been a strong angle for me with European turf horses making their first start in America,” she added.

Tony almost broke our Turf Club dining table in half (and my ear drums along with it) when he pounded it hard rooting for Bonita Star to complete her eye catching rally down the center of the course—at an equally eye catching 23-1!

Nice handicapping Marike and Tony! Fact is, just those pair of $50 win bets earned the Toronto-based couple more than $1200 in profits for their free betting spree at Santa Anita at GradeOneRacing.com's expense.

It was also gratifying to see Santa Anita officials provide such support for the event. Beyond sending out details about GradeOne's contests for 2011 in the track's official Press Notes, Marike and Tony were given a personal tour of the track by Marketing Director Alan Gutterman. The tour aptly concluded with a meeting and photo session with Toronto based jockey Chantal Sutherland, just after Sutherland was celebrating her victory aboard UNKOWN HEAT in the fourth race.

Beyond their personal triumphs, here are some conclusions I drew from the weekend's stakes results at Golden Gate Fields, Santa Anita and Tampa Bay Downs, some of which turned early rankings of Kentucky Derby prospects upside down.

First conclusion: COMMA TO THE TOP is not a bona fide Derby horse.

Even though this highly ranked horse had won five straight at three different California racetracks leading into El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields on Saturday, he seems quite a bit below a Grade-1 type at true route distances.

* SILVER MEDALLION, winner of the Golden Gate race, saved trainer Steve Asmussen's day, given that heavily favored TAPIZAR was such a disappointment in the Robert Lewis.

Silver Medallion made a nice move to contention while wide on the final turn and scored a clear victory to suggest he could be a factor in the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby at the same nine furlong distance on April 9. Meanwhile, JAKESAM and POSITIVE RESPONSE, who were second and third in the El Camino Real, will have to improve several lengths to show they belong on the Triple Crown chase.

* ANTHONY'S CROSS,  originally cross entered in the El Camino Real and Robert Lewis, was kept at home in Southern Cal, because trainer Eoin Harty reasoned that he only had one horse to beat in the Lewis stakes, the heavily favored TAPIZAR, trained by Steve Asmussen.

Harty's analysis was 50 percent right. He did have only one horse to beat, but it wasn't Tapizar. The one horse he had to beat was RIVETING REASON, who rallied right behind Anthony's Cross only to lose a very tight photo at the wire. The pair finished almost five lengths in front of 68-1 shot QUAIL HILL.

Just as COMMA TO THE TOP  was bet down to 40 cents on the dollar in the El Camino Real, TAPIZAR was a prohibitive 3-10 betting favorite in the Robert Lewis, but  neither horse was able to finish in the top three in their respective, lackluster performances.

Where Comma to the Top may simply lack the ability to handle serious rivals at nine furlongs, Tapizar appeared rank during the early going  in his race, a negative sign for sure. Moreover, when put to pressure on the final turn, Tapizar faltered badly to finish fifth as if he might have been injured, or ill.

At the bottom line neither horse made much of a case that they beong on the long winding road to the First Saturday in May at Churchill Downs.

On the other hand, BRETHREN certainly lived up to advance billing while winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday.

A half-brother to the 2010 Kentucky Derby winner, Super Saver, whose workouts drew positive comments from our Gulfstream and Palm Meadows based clocker, Perry Gastis, Brethren scored an easy four-length victory at 9-10 odds. The way Brethren won, certainly gives owner Win Star Farm and trainer Todd Pletcher a fighting chance to replicate their Derby victory at Churchill Downs last year.

Brethren also earned a cool 40 points for our Fantasy Contest players who put him on their respective rosters  Feb. 1.

The Derby Fantasy Contest on this site is designed to give players a chance to earn lucrative prizes by picking actual starters in the 2011 Kentucky Derby.  

Fantasy players whose roster of 10 include any of the top three finishers in the Robert Lewis, the El Camino Real Derby and the Sam F. Davis also scored points for this lucrative competition.

To check your own results, please go to the Handicapping Contest page.

Results are tabulated on the Contest page after each weekend and there will be more Graded stakes for 3 year olds virtually every weekend from now through April 30.

In two more Santa Anita stakes on the weekend—both involving fillies and mares—two more popular betting favorites went down to defeat.:

* In the Santa Maria stakes on Saturday, ST TRINIANS showed her rustiness while making her first start since pushing Zenyatta to the limit in the Vanity Handicap at Hollywood last June. St. Trinians ran well, but could only finish third while gaining some ground late. Meanwhile, VISION OF GOLD narrowly edged ZARDANA in a hard fought two-horse contest from gate to wire. Frankly, the top three might exchange finishing positions in a rematch.

* On Sunday, in the La Canada stakes,  11-10 favorite BLIND LUCK was a victim of the easy front running pace set by second choice ALWAYS A PRINCESS, a multiple Graded stakes winner in her own right. Always A Princess had the race won simply by controlling the pace on SA's newly installed, extremely fast, speed-favoring dirt racing surface.

If there is one handicapping lesson to be gleaned from all of this, I would suggest that it is not good wagering strategy to trust ‘reputation horses' to produce their best performances when:

(A)  They are coming off layoffs.

and/or

(B) The general betting public is crushing them on the tote board based on previous good performances not what can or is likely to happen under today's pace or racing surface and distance issues.

-------------------------------- -------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------

That was not quite the typical background for a Zito trained Derby prospect. And, halfway through the Holy Bull, Dialed In was several lengths behind the rest of the field that included Delta Jackpot winner, GOURMET DINNER, Graded stakes placed MUCHO MACHO MAN and six other more experienced rivals.

But on the far turn, jockey Julien Leparoux gave the lightly raced colt his cue and Dialed In suddenly and unmistakably began to pick off horses one by one. By the time he reached the upper stretch, he looked the part of a race winner even though he was on the far outside in fifth place.

Continuing on resolutely, Dialed In surged past longshot SWEET DUCKY and made Gourmet Dinner and Mucho Macho Man look as if they have no real chance to make the Kentucky Derby.

But the same should not be said about Zito's new found 3 year old Derby prospect.  

Fact is, Dialed In turned in the most impressive performance by any Derby age colt this side of UNCLE MO and/or BOYS AT TOSCANOVA, who reigned supreme as 2 year olds in 2010. While those two are among the most favored horses for the 2011 Kentucky Derby, neither has launched their Derby campaigns.

Next stop for Dialed In figures to be the Fountain of Youth stakes at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 26, but Zito has hinted that he might try to sneak the colt into a two turn allowance race while reserving him for the $1 million Florida Derby, on April 3.

It's early of course. So far, we have only seen promising TAPIZAR win the 1-1/16 mile Sham stakes at Santa Anita on Jan. 15; WILKINSON take the 1-mile and 40 yard Lecomte at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans, Jan 22 and Dialed in win the Holy Bull at Gulfstream, Jan 30.

All of these horses, and hundreds more are gearing up now for prep races that could take the best of them to the 137th running of the $2 million Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, May 7.

As a horseplayer, I find great fun and significant profit potential in the 60+ prep races that will be run at more than two dozen tracks from now til the Derby Trial stakes on opening day at Churchill, April 30.

More than two dozen of those stakes will be Graded events, an important factor for trainers who know they have to get sufficient Graded stakes earnings to make the final 20 that will be permitted to draw for Derby post positions on Wednesday, May 4.

The Graded stakes on the Triple Crown chase also will play a major role in our Fantasy Contest that asks players to pick the eventual starters in America's most famous race.

Entries closed Tuesday Feb. 1 for our first free Fantasy Contest that will offer 32 prizes, including three tickets into the 2012 World Series of Handicapping at the Orleans Hotel and Casino and more than two dozen free betting vouchers on the 2010 Belmont Stakes that could provide a windfall to the top finishers.

Graded stakes are important to this contest because fantasy points will be awarded to Derby age horses that finish in the top three.

No offense intended to our subscribers and Charter Members, but it might have made sense for some to have read the rules and scoring procedures more carefully.

I say this because we had to disqualify a few players who named 4 year olds to their Derby Fantasy roster, which left them with less than the required 10 Derby age horses to complete their active rosters.

I also noticed that several fantasy players decided to use 3 year old fillies ZAZU and TURBULENT DESCENT on their rosters. This was not grounds for a DQ, but the rules state that fantasy points earned by fillies in Graded stakes for fillies, the filly actually must make it into the Derby starting gate for those points to officially count at the end of the contest. This applies to Zazu who won the Las Virgenes at Santa Anita and to Turblent Descent who was second.

Regardless, the response has been very encouraging and with the help of our trusty webmaster, Travis Magee, we have an automated scoring program in place and we will post updates after each weekend all the way through the Derby itself.

 Below you will find my Derby Fantasy roster of 10, which includes Dialed In and Remsen stakes winner To Honor and Serve, as well as eight others who have yet to demonstrate stakes class form. While I respect UNCLE MO and BOYS AT TOSCANOVA, I prefered to include lightly raced horses who are well bred for classic distances, horses who have yet to make their mark, but hve considerable upside.

Below my list,  you will find the complete schedule of Graded Stakes for 3 year olds from Feb. 1 through April 30.

--------------------- ----------------------------------- ---------------------------

2011 GRADED STAKES FOR 3 YEAR OLDS, (Feb 1-Apr. 30)

12 Feb El Camino Real Derby  GG $200K, G-3, 1 1/8 miles 

12 Feb Robert B. Lewis S  SA, $250K, G-2,1 1/8 miles 

12 Feb Sam F. Davis S  TAM $225K, G-3,  1 1/16 miles 

19 Feb Risen Star S.  FG, $300K,  G-2, 1 1/16 miles 

20 Feb San Vicente S  SA, $150K, G-2,  7 furlongs 

21 Feb Southwest S  OP, $250K, G-3; 1 mile 

26 Feb Fountain of Youth S.  GP $400K, G-1, 1 1/8 miles 

26 Feb Hutcheson S  GP $150K, G-3, 7 furlongs 

05 Mar Gotham S  AQU $225K, G-3, 1 1/16 miles 

12 Mar Palm Beach S  GP $150K, G-3,  1 1/8 miles turf 

12 Mar San Felipe S  SA  $250K, G-2, 1 1/16 miles 

12 Mar Tampa Bay Derby TAM $350K, G-2, 1 1/16 miles 

19 Mar Rebel S  OP, $350K G-2, 1 1/16 miles 

26 Mar Louisiana Derby FG $1,000K, G-2 1 1/8 miles 

26 Mar Vinery Racing Spiral S.  TP $500K, G-2, 1 1/8 miles 

27 Mar Sunland Derby  SUN $800K, G-3, 1 1/8 miles 

03 Apr Florida Derby  GP $1000K, G-1, 1 1/8 miles 

03 Apr Swale S  GP  $150K G-3, 7 furlongs 

09 Apr Wood Memorial S  AQU $750K, G-1,  1 1/8 miles 

09 Apr Illinois Derby  HAW  $250K, G-3, 1 1/8 miles 

09 Apr Santa Anita Derby  SA  $1 million,  G-1, 1 1/8 miles 

16 Apr Toyota Blue Grass S  KEE $750, G-1, 1 1/8 miles 

16 Apr Arkansas Derby  OP, $1 million, G-1, 1 1/8 miles 

23 Apr Jerome H  AQU $150K, G-3,  1 mile 

23 Apr Coolmore Lexington S  KEE $200K, G-3, 1-1/16 mi. 

30 Apr The Cliff's Edge Derby Trial S  CD $200K, G-3,  1 mile 

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This is a relatively comprehensive explanation of our TRACK BIAS information that has been available for each track we cover dating back to Jan 21, 2011. 

Non subscribers are welcome to read this, but subscriptions are needed to access all of our handicapping information, including this valuable feature.

Please check our rates on the subscription page,

(click here: https://www.gradeoneracing.com/subscribe.htm.

----------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------- ----------- 

In the early 1960's. I coined the term “Track Bias” while sitting in the grandstand at Garden State Park in Cherry Hill, NJ, realizing that if I were looking at the same 6 furlong race that was going to be run instead at Aqueduct in Queens, NY, I would be looking for different horses to bet.

 At Garden State Park--a beautiful, classy one mile track in its heyday, a track that resembled Monmouth Park in the same state--the inside rail was the place to be in almost every sprint race. It also helped if your horse had the most early zip.

 At Aqueduct, one turn sprints run on that nine furlong track often were dominated by horses who could stalk the pace from the outside.

When I realized the need to approach the same type of race at these two different tracks with a different mindset, I likened the inside preference at Garden State and the outside preference at the Big A to be a 'bias' that reminded me of an unbalanced roulette wheel.

“At Aqueduct,” I said to myself, “the inside posts were at a disadvantage, while at Garden State they had a huge edge.”

 Through the years, Track Bias as a handicapping factor has been both widely accepted and badly misused by too many players.

On one hand, a legit track bias can help an astute player eliminate several horses in a given race, but it is folly to think that a pair of front running winners early on a given race card means that "speed is king"

To really appreciate Track Bias as a dynamic, reality based handicapping issue, players must do a good amount of handicapping in advance of a race to know which horses are likely to be on or near the lead and which ones are likely to be well off the pace.

 When you see two or three horses fire out of the starting gate and subsequently engage in a speed duel, it is unlikely all three will survive torrid fractions all the way to the wire.

 When you see such a hotly contested pace scenario and the front runners do not pay a price for their early involvement, a bias might in fact be helping them carry their speed to the wire.

 Conversely, if you see a lone front runner or two or more horses setting moderate fractions, yet all fail to hold their form in the final furlong(s), the track itself may have taken its toll.

The key points are (A) to know which horses are likely to be involved in the pace, and  (B) how the race actually plays out against your pre-race, pace analysis.

Please notice that we began this discussion focusing on Track Bias---a lane bias, if you will---and wound up including notions of pace.

With that in mind, you may find that the Track Bias puzzle also relates to a temporary bias, induced by torrid fractions, or slower more relaxing fractional splits.

Where some tracks naturally are tilted towards speed horses and/or horses who race on an inside or outside lane,  logic also suggests that a single race pace bias can occur when the early splits are beyiond normal parameters.In that instance, we will make special note of such a single race pace bias in our exclusive PERFORMANCE NOTES that we post in our summaries for thousands of horses who perform at the tracks we cover.

If you have purchased one of our seasonal or yearly subscription packages, beginning on Friday, Jan 21, you may jump straight to The G1-R Track Bias Report, right from here or from the home page, where the entries for the next day(s) races include all our provately developed Performance Notes, Workout Reports, Pedigree Profiles and in special cases indications where single race pace biases did exist.

For those of you who have not yet subscribed, please check our rates on the subscription page, (click here: https://www.gradeoneracing.com/subscribe.htm.

Again, all our subscription packages, include:

* Our insightful workout reports from Southern California, Kentucky and Florida as supervised by Bruno DeJulio (our New York workouts will resume on June 1.)

* Detailed Performance Notes for the tracks we cover.

* Lauren Stich's invaluable Pedigree Profiles for 2 and 3 year old first time starters, Triple Crown prospects and Turf Horses.

* Our proprietary "Preferred Performers" and "Horses to Avoid" lists.

* FREE ENTRIES into our lucrative handicapping contests, two of which are going to the post during the first week in February.

* Columns by Lauren Stich, Steve Davidowitz, Bruno DeJulio, Peter Rinato and guests who bring with them special expertise.

Here are more details to explain the nuances of our Track Bias and Extreme Race Shape info, all of which can help you pick more live contenders and eliminate more deadwood.

 GradeOneRacing.com's Track Bias Report

First of all, we do not quantify any perceived Track Bias by a number.

We also believe that a Track Bias has to be strong to be of value in our evaluation of a performance.

We therefore use only two degrees of bias, based on our own observations every racing day at the tracks we cover:

+ = Moderate, but a clearly influential bias.

++ = Dominant, or a very strong bias.

 We do provide Track Bias notes for different types of races and racing surfaces. Sometimes we will see a "split variant" for sprints vs. routes and/or the first part of a racing card vs. the later races. We also might not see a bias on the main track, while one clearly is in existence on the turf course.

ON DIRT OR SYNTHETIC TRACKS.

One Turn Races:

Two lengths criteria for speed; 5 lengths for closers.

 First 1/4 mile call used to determine bias.

 SPEED-Sp. . . . . + or ++ (In one turn races up to 7 furlongs, the track favored horses on/or within 2-lengths of the lead at the first 1/4 mile call.)

 CLOSERS-Sp. . .+ or ++ (In one turn races up to 7 furlongs, it favored horses who were 5-lengths or more behind after the first 1/4 mile call.)

( Note ‘Sp' designates that the bias pertains to one turn sprints.)

 ------------------------------- ---------------------------------

Elongated One Turn Races.

SPEED-M. . . . . . + or ++ (In one turn races from 7-1/2 furlongs to 1-1/8 mi., the track favored horses within 2-lengths of the lead at the 1/2 mile call.)

CLOSERS-M. . . .+ or ++ (The track favored horses who were 5 lengths or more behind the front runners after the 1/2 mile call.)

( Note ‘M' designates that the bias pertains to an elongated one turn race.)

--------------------------- --------------------------------------- 

Two Turn Races:

Three lengths criteria for speed, 5 lengths for closers.

First 1/2 mile call used to determine bias.

SPEED-R. . . . . . + or ++ (The track favored horses on or within three lengths of the lead at the 1/2 mile call in two turn races at one mile or longer.)

CLOSERS-R. . . + or ++ (The track favored horses who were more than 5 lengths behind the front runners in two turn races at one mile or longer.)

+ = A moderate, but clearly influential bias.

++ = A Dominant, very strong Track Bias.

( Note ‘R' designates that the bias pertains to a a two turn race at one mile or longer.)

----------------------------- ---------------------------------------- 

  On TURF ('T')

One Turn Turf Sprints:

Two lengths criteria for speed, 5 lengths for closers.

First 1/4 mile call used to determine bias.

T-SPEED-Sp. . . . + or ++ (In one turn turf races up to 7 furlongs, the course favored horses on/or within 2-lengths of the lead at the 1/4 mile call.)

T-CLOSERS-Sp. .+ or ++ (In one turn turf races up to 7 furlongs, it favored horses who were 5-lengths or more behind after the first 1/4 mile call.)

------------------------- ------------------------------------------- 

Two Turn Turf Races:

 Three lengths criteria for speed, 5 lengths for closers.

 First 1/2 mile call used to determine bias.

 T-SPEED-R. . . . . + or ++ (The course favored horses on/or within 3-lengths of the lead at the 1/2 mile call in two turn races, one mile or longer.)

 T-CLOSERS-R. . .+ or ++ (The course favored horses who were more than 5 lengths behind the front runners in two turn race, one mile or longer.)

 + = A moderate, but clearly influential bias.

 ++ = A Dominant, very strong Track Bias.

----------------------------------------- ---------------------------------

Here is a sample of the info you will see in our exclusive Track Bias Report

Gulfstream
1-17-11
SPEED-Sp++ (Races 5-9)
SPEED-M++ (Races 5-9)

Aqueduct-inner
1-16-11
SPEED-Sp+

1-8-11
SPEED-Sp+ (Races 1-6)
SPEED-R+  (Races 1-6)

Santa Anita
1-16-11
SPEED-Sp+
SPEED-R+

1-15-11
SPEED-Sp+
SPEED-R+
+RAIL

 ----------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------

 It is my firm belief that  the Track Bias information and special "single race pace bias" notations included on www.GradeOneRacing.com will continue to be of considerable value as you seek to properly identify horses that ran well against a Track Bias or an unfavorable race shape.

Likewise, it certainly will provide helpful clues when a horse ran a good race primarily because it had everything in its favor.

You comments are welcome, as always.

All the Best/Steve Davidowitz

 

As you may recall, I am pledged to honor the poll results for my actual Horse of the Year vote in the official Eclipse Award balloting. My reason for doing this is simple:

Fans of every level of interest deserve a voice in the Horse of the Year Process!

That the NTRA and the Eclipse Award Committee have yet to create a place on their web sites where fans can express their point of view and gain a representative percentage of the official vote count----say a net 10 percent weight against the total votes by all the media and racing officials who own voting rights ---is another perfect example how out of touch racing leaders are with the people who support this game with their wagering dollars.

I ask you: What would be the harm to set something up like that?

Actually, the issue is better framed by realizing the continuous harm being caused by NOT setting up such a logical public outlet!

As to the way the official Horse of the Year balloting is likely to go, numerous media and racing officials apparently feel strongly that Breeders' Cup Classic winner BLAME deserves the honor for having beaten Zenyatta in the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic.

Interestingly, the majority of those pro Blame voters are quartered in the East and/or are involved in racing at tracks where Blame and his fine trainer Albert Stall have raced regularly in recent years. Meanwhile, a somewhat smaller group of racing officials in the West are more inclined to vote for Zenyatta, where the 6 year old mare has done almost all of her racing, as has her respected trainer John Shirreffs.

In my poll, I found an amazing imbalance in favor of Zenyatta due to another bias, perhaps the most pronounced one sided expression since the people of the Soviet Union could only vote for Joseph Stalin in their single choice elections in the 1950's.

My fan poll was a one-sided affair for the great race mare, ZENYATTA.

Get this: The actual tally of 147 fans that sent me E-mails and posted comments on this website was an astonishing 132 for Zenyatta and only 15 for Blame!

That imbalance of opinion similarly was skewed by the presence of so many female voters in my poll, as only 24 men voted, while 123 women participated.

The male vote was split down the middle, 12 for Blame and 12 for Zenyatta.

Looking at this another way, only three of the 123 women in my poll voted for Blame!

The results lend themselves to these indisputable facts:

* No other horse in my lifetime has brought so many women into racing, or spiked their interest.

* No other horse in my lifetime has elicited as much fan passion to accompany a Horse of the Year opinion, not even the battle that was waged by supporters of Horse of the Year, Rachel Alexandra vs. Zenyatta in 2009.

 In that situation, the vast majority of women were not clustered so strongly in one corner in opposition to male voters in the other. In 2009, there was a clear preference among Eastern voters for Rachel, as in the West, there was for Zenyatta, but this split was not as pronounced as the present gender gap.

Also, as many E-mailers stated--- (more than two dozen have been published intact under my Horse of the Year columns)---the chief arguments expressed by Zenyatta's supporters rest on four points that most of the voting media is discounting.

* Zenyatta has been a champion for three years---and given that she continued undefeated after her short-lived retirement--- her overall lifetime performances should count for something in the voting for this year's Horse of the Year Award.

* Zenyatta did not lose any stature when she was narrowly beaten by Blame in the BC Classic, because she had such a sluggish start and actually caught up to Blame 1-1/2 strides past the wire before Blame galloped out safely in front of her with energy in reserve.

* Blame won the race on his home track but did not really prove superiority over Zenyatta. In fact, many argued and I tended to agree, that if the two had the opportunity to race against each other again at Churchill Downs or any other track, she probably would win more races than Blame.

* Blame lost to HAYNESFIELD in the Jockey Club Gold Cup when he could not handle that horse cruising along at a moderate pace on the lead. By contrast, Zenyatta never has been hampered by a slow pace in any of her races. She fired her strong rally in every start, without needing pace meltdowns or perfect trips.

Those who prefer Blame point to the higher quality of competition he faced winning four of his five starts this year. They also state clearly that he did defeat her in the singular race that mattered the most. Countering that argument is difficult, but Zenyatta's supporters do point out that she won last year's BC Classic, while Rachel Alexandra was kept on the sidelines and yet Rachel still was voted Horse of the Year. They also point to Curlin who lost the BC Classic in 2008 and still was judged to be 2008 Horse of the Year.

It also is fact that most of the media who has voted for Blame accepts the fractional splits and margins as published in the official result charts, but a more careful examination of where Zenyatta was at the first quarter mile call and the mid stretch call with only a furlong to go says the chart understates the degree of difficulty she faced.

After dozens of viewings of the race replays and use of various stop action technologies, my measurements say that Zenyatta was 20+ lengths behind at the first quarter mile call, not 16-3/4 as represented by the result chart.

Even more significant, Zenyatta was 3-1/2 lengths behind Blame at the furlong pole, not two lengths behind as represented by the chart.

The difference is important because many voters for Blame discount her trip as being ‘good' or at least the same stuff she has done in all of her races. Not true.

Zenyatta made three separate moves in this race and did more than any race she has ever run. And, while Mike Smith has chastised himself for a mistake he really did not make, he actually might have won the race had he switched his whip from his left hand to his right sooner than he did.

Watch the tape and you will see an extra late spurt as soon as Smith changed over from left to right handed whipping inside the final furlong.

There is at least one other publicly disseminated mistake that needs correcting.

According to virtually every published account of this race, “Zenyatta never caught Blame in the gallop out. “

Fact: Stop action and still photography definitely show that she actually put her nose in front of Blame 1-1/2 strides past the wire, before she shut down as is her custom, while Blame went on from there to gallop out clearly in front.

It also is interesting to me that the majority of media voters who have published their Horse of the Year opinions, have acknowledged that Zenyatta will go down in history as “one of the greatest race mares of all time.” Yet, they believe Blame's narrow BC victory trumps her historic standing.

Oh really?

Let me be clear: A vote for Blame is credible and 100 percent defensible as an expression of one thought and one thought only: He had a very good year and won the BC Classic while Zenyatta finished second. If that is the defining notion, so be it. But please do not tell me that he proved his superiority in that race, on his home track while she finally woke up so many reluctant media to her extraordinary talent. This after so many of the same voters discounted her as “a mere synthetic track specialist” who would be exposed against a good field on a dirt track.

Exposed?

I think she proved her quality on numerous occasions and deserved to be in the conversation for Horse of the Year long before she ran so gallantly in this years' Classic. As I recall, I think she defeated a bevy of Grade 1 winners with an electrifying rally in the 2009 BC Classic and did the same thing when all hope seemed lost in at least two of her spine tingling wins this year. In other words, Zenyatta never wavered from pure excellence in any start this year.

I am voting for Zenyatta because the fans have instructed me to do so. But, if I had a vote of my own, unencumbered by any other points of view, I still would vote for Zenyatta. Fact is the arguments made by those who shared their reasons turned me around. When I first wrote my column about who might be Horse of the Year, I said “Blame earned his claim to it in the BC Classic. "

I looked a bit deeper and saw a lot more to appreciate.

While many have misstated Zenyatta's Horse of the Year credential as based on her “popularity”, or her zealous fan base, the truth is that Zenyatta has a stronger claim to the award: She was nearly perfect in 2010 and was the single most significant horse of this year if not the entire decade. Significance is far different and more compelling than mere popularity, especially when coupled with plenty of great performances.

At the bottom line, as I have said in numerous public forums, Zenyatta is the most talented race mare I have ever seen. In every race she ran this year she proved that. Yet, only in defeat at Churchill Downs, did she earn some of the respect she deserves for her ability. So, despite my fan poll that governs my vote, her exceptionally brilliant, albeit narrow BC Classic loss probably will keep her from winning the Eclipse she richly deserves. That is not quite the tragedy that her most ardent female supporters believe. No matter the outcome of the Horse of the Year voting, Zenyatta's record for sustained excellence  will be remembered as long as races are run in this country.

What is a tragedy is that the NTRA and the Eclipse Award Committee continue to deny the fans the opportunity for their passionate voices to count.

--------------------------------- ------------------------ -------------------- ---------------------------------

Added Notes:

* The winner of a free subscription for www.GradeOneRacing.com's unique and comprehensive handicapping information for “the best explanation for a Horse of the Year vote”, will be awarded in this space next Monday, Jan 10.

* Rules and Prizes for G1-R.com's first Fantasy Contest on the Kentucky Derby will be posted Tuesday evening in my Jan 5 blog. The contest will begin Feb. 1, 2011.

 ---------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------

The first set of ideas comes from Bruno DeJulio, our chief clocker who is at Santa Anita while we also cover horses working  at Hollywood Park.

I have added a few comments in clearly identifiable places and on Saturday, there will be another column in which I will include contributions from GradeOneRacing's co-founder Peter Rinato and Lauren Stich, one of the world's most respected pedigree experts. For now, though, I think Bruno DeJulio has some exceptionally wise thoughts for our subscribers to digest.

Says Bruno:

"Speed will return as a key handicapping factor in California."

 "Back before synthetic tracks here in California, we regularly saw our horses dominate east coast foes by using their sheer speed.  In the last three years however, our California tracks significantly de-emphasized pure speed.

"More horses were trained for stamina here--by necessity--and less for speed. The general consensus went from speed training to workout regimens designed to improve a horse's finishing kick and stamina. While stamina is an important attribute in a well conditioned racehorse, the California emphasis on real speed is going to return here.

 "Horseplayers also will need adjust their thinking about jockey styles and trainer patterns. Some trainers will work their horses hard and push for speed. Some will back off and be more cautious over the dirt and bring their horses to their first race off a layoff 'short' and in need of racing."

Bruno continues:

'There will be wet tracks and mud again at the Great Race Place'

“Yes, there will be mud and we will have to re-evaluate horses as mud, or sloppy and/or wet-fast specialists. Generally speaking, speed is a big asset on any dirt track when it gets hit by rain, and/or the track is sealed to protect it from a coming storm.

“We should anticipate then, that speed will be at a premium on a Santa Anita wet track. This may seem simplistic, but the track will play quite the opposite from what we have seen on most synthetic tracks here and elsewhere on the circuit.

 Keep in mind also that dirt racing will not eliminate cancellations due to wet tracks.'

“That's a gimmie; dirt tracks are susceptible to being 'washed away'. It happens everywhere and it has happened here before and it will happen again, so brace for it.

(Added Comment by Steve D: “We already saw the cancelation of several days of training at Santa Anita when heavy rains hit the SoCal area this week).”

  Some breeding insights from Bruno, supported by Lauren Stich:

“The sons and daughters of Tribal Rules and Candy Ride, who excelled on the synthetic surfaces have to be re-evaluated as dirt stallions. Likewise, the sons and daughters of Unusual Heat, will be in question as they may not have the speed to dominate as they did in slower paced races on 'plastic'. “

(Adds Steve D: We do not know for sure if they will be much less effective, but it is a good guess. At the very least, the offspring of these sires should not be automatically viewed as positively as they were on synthetic tracks.)

Adds Bruno (and Lauren Stich agrees): “On the other hand, the get of Swiss Yodeler---who absolutely hated virtually all synthetic tracks--- are likely to enjoy a resurgence.”

(Lauren adds, however: The only caveat to this idea about the Swiss Yodlers is linked to their precocity. They tend to be early-win-sprinters and so, the Swiss Yodlers who were out this year and failed in many early-season tests at short distances on synthetics, may not do much better at this later stage of their development, or at longer distances. )

 Bruno continues his Santa Anita handicapping thoughts regarding :

Polytrack vs. Cushion track vs. Dirt.

Says Bruno:

“My coined phrase on the poly has always been ''if you are fast on the poly you are (going to be) slow''. Yes, this sounds like a Yogi Berra-ism, just like ''nobody will go to the lead because its too crowded out there,'' or my favorite: "I wanted to go slow so they wouldn't catch me”.

“Overall, I think the pace of each race could turn out to be much different than everyone expects. “

(Steve D adds: It all will depend upon how hard some  riders at Santa Anita push their mounts to theoretically take control of the pace.)   

Continues Bruno:

“In normal pace scenarios on the speed favoring dirt surface, jocks who make their living sitting and pouncing coming off the final turn will find themselves too far back and having waited too long.

“Aggressive riders, such as Joe Talamo, Martin Pedroza and PVal should do quite well because they will put their horses into the race leaving the gate. But the accent they put on early speed may lead them to become too aggressive. This will be worth watching. Extreme aggressive tactics might backfire. They just might help some races fall apart which will pen the door to improved performances by horses ridden by Alonso Quinonez and/or Brice Blanc, who tend to lag early and rally late. They may benefit more than most expect if the race comes back to them.

“ Ah, yes, what of the swiftest---the brilliant speed horse.

“This animal finally will be back in California!

“Speed will be king again, and any horse in good condition who is one-to-three lengths in front or sitting right behind the leaders at the quarter pole, will be the icing on the cake at the Great Race Place.

“ This will not be a TrackBias, no, it will be a Track Profile.

 “Let me predict that after the first two days of racing on the dirt there will be not one, but two major handicapping articles about a ‘speed biased main track.' Count on it; bet on it.

Adds Steve D., who first coined and explained the term TRACK BIAS in 'Betting Thoroughbreds' : “It is simple fact that too many players label a track bias prematurely and/or do not know a bias when they see one or when there is none to be seen.”

Bruno Explains:  

“Three favorites win on the card on the lead, and on the inside where most speed horses usually can be found and suddenly the 'experts' who have no clue, say we have an inside speed bias. 

“Since a large portion of the industry's public handicappers over-use biases and various 'Figs' for their handicapping opinions, it is worth noting that I take pride in the fact that we—ALL OF US HERE AT www.GradeOneRacing.com ---fall into the abstract category of handicapping by watching horses visually, watching them race and watching them train.

“It is from those observations more than pure numbers or incorrect track evaluations that we build our insights.

Prediction: “The dirt will play to certain types of horses, fast ones.”

“Training--as in workouts that mean something, once again will be a big part of the Southern California profile of race winners.

“The synthetics were good to train on, but many trainers told us they didn't know talent-wise and fitness wise exactly where their horses stood after a workout or a series of works on the plastic.

“John Shirreffs, for one, was outspoken from day one and felt that there was a fatigue factor training over synthetics that was very hard to recognize even from a horsemen standpoint.

“Horses bounced off their works on synthetic tracks.  Less was more.

“ Stamina towered over speed. Now, the visual aspects of the thoroughbred and how he behaves during and after a work will be clearer to the discerning eye.

“In the three month trip MollyJo Rosen, Perry Gastis and I took to clock horses at Churchill and Keeneland---we watched horses training on both dirt (Churchill Downs) and on Polytrack (Keeneland) .

“We watched thoroughbreds cut through the ground and dig into it.

“But on Poly,  they raced on top of the surface. . .Big powerful horses that once grabbed the dirt and had a sping in their step, were racing on top of the artificial surface. They were unable to use their power. On the dirt they will once again. Size and a strong motor will matter on the dirt.  

“Competent Workout reports will once again matter.

“Speed from the gate will matter.

“Style will matter, and most of all, tactics during the race itself will matter.

“No more sitting, sitting, sitting and sprinting home.

“No more 49 or 50 flat turf-like splits on the main track in routes. Horses will rock and roll, live or die by speed, morning and afternoon.

“Cushion track played closest to dirt at Hollywood Park and those horses should run well at Santa Anita, but we will see for ourselves.

“One last thought:  Horses probably needed the few days break we had from the series of rainstorms that hit Southern California. Seriously, we train our horses way to hard here and a respite is something the horses definitely enjoyed while we humans also got refreshed by the holiday break. The Great Race Place kicks off on Sunday, December 26. Rain or shine.

“The track will be packed; fields will be strong and racing will, at least for the day, look like it has returned to its glamour. But, but do not forget: It's a brand new game now at Santa Anita Park. Horses for courses, pedigree handicapping, accurate not phony track bias information and Workout Reports will once again beat the 'inside baseball' mentality.

Frankly, he handicapper that will most quickly adjust will get the money. You can bet on it.

Catch all of Racingwithbruno's staff workout reports from across the nation exclusively at

www.GradeOneRacing.com! 

Added note from SteveD: Bruno Dejulio's handicapping insights for specific race cards at Santa Anita and other tracks---along with MollyJo Rosen's Aqueduct & Fair Grounds analysis---are available on Bruno's web site. www.racingwithbruno.com.  

 

                     ----------------- -------------- ----------------

There is a movement supported by more than 1700 horseplayers that wants to make an indelible point to members of the California Horse Racing Board.

The movement,  led by members of a newly formed ‘Players Boycott' and the well-established ‘Horseplayers Association of North America,' (HANA), supports a betting boycott at Santa Anita Park which is scheduled to open its 2010-2011 race meeting next Sunday, Dec. 26.

The protest is reminiscent of a famous lament uttered with great passion by the fictional television news anchor Howard Beale (as played to perfection by the late Peter Finch) in “Network”, a classic 1976 movie directed by Sidney Lumet.

At the core of Beale's personal frustration over the way the world is turning and the way his network has been screwing with his extremely popular television news show, is the anger of ‘Everyman.' So Beale snaps. And snaps back. Half crazed, but no fool,  Beale uses the power at his disposal to declare on the air, that he's “Mad As Hell And Won't Take It Anymore!”

The horseplayer organizations that have lined up for the proposed betting boycott at Santa Anita have a right to feel discounted, if not abused by the CHRB and Thoroughbred Owners of California who sponsored and/or promoted an increase in the takeout. The vast majority of horseplayers certainly are mad as hell and don't want to take it anymore, either.

They believe that a wagering boycott will have a noticeable impact on the Santa Anita handle and that such a drop will send a clear cut message to the CHRB to repeal the increase.

I've examined the idea; I support the notion that the last thing the CHRB should be doing is raising takeout and the last thing horse owners should be doing is trying to raise purses through such an increase.

I even support the idea that a strong message sent by horseplayers about how they are mistreated by these increases in the takeout----that come along every few years, to do this or that; or, to plug this leak in the purse structure; or, pay for whatever---is long overdue. But I cannot in good conscience support this boycott, for a very simple reason:

It will not work.

At least, it will not work when targeted against the anticipation that has been building for this Santa Anita race meet that will reintroduce main track racing on a freshly minted dirt track after four seasons of disappointing issues associated with faulty synthetic racing surfaces.

It will not work.

Because the handle may not be negatively impacted by anything  anytime soon given that southern California players have wanted to handicap and play races on dirt for too long to suddenly abandon such plans. And, even if the handle is negatively impacted, how will it be possible to prove any decline is directly attributable to a boycott? Isn't it fact that wagering trends have been negative at virtually every meet—without an organized boycott?

A bettors' boycott at this Santa Anita meeting at this time or anytime during the first two months of this meet--before wagering standards have been established---can have no more communicative value to the insensitive CHRB than spitting in the wind. As I see it, this good cause is going to be sacrificed as an ill timed adventure, set into motion at precisely the wrong time at the wrong track. Frankly, I can think of no better way for the boycott organizers to lose their best argument right out of the box.

If clearer heads were to prevail however, a betting boycott actually would make sense if it were to be better organized and initiated sometime in late February, or early March,  after SA wagering trends are set firmly into place--well after the new takeout percentages are implemented. Hollywood Park and/or Del Mar might even be the best place to send the strongest message as both tracks continue to use synthetic surfaces and their handle stats will be digested without confusion. 

With identifiyable benchmarks in tow and time to really organize the effort, solid points actually might be made---not only on behalf of racing fans in southern California, but for beleaguered bettors throughout America.

Yes it is absolutely true, that racetracks in most jurisdictions, including California, take more out of every dollar bet than is healthy for the industry, or for those of us who pay the freight with our wagering dollars.

The takeout in California may be a shade or two lower than other states, but still is excessive given the under-appreciated need to keep players in the game--- not rape them of their bankrolls via loan-shark-takeout-rates. Takeout rates are too high everywhere because the horseplayer is the last person given any consideration by politicians and racing officials.

Yet to change that, to drive home the point that high takeouts are counter-productive; to begin an era when takeouts are lowered voluntarily or via sensible legislation and/or commission rulings, such as they have been lowered in experimental moments of common sense (see Delaware Park's increase in handle that accompanied an experimental lowering of some of their takeout rates), any pressured boycott has to be orchestrated perfectly, or the intent will fall flat and leave horseplayers worse than they are now.

 Let's be clear here.  My disagreement with the proposed boycott is based on a huge tactical mistake being made, not with the concept itself. As I see it, the present boycott runs a very large risk that there will be no measurable decrease in handle that can be linked to it. And, what good will it do if the fascination for dirt racing trumps the desire to send a message to the CHRB? Won't the CHRB conclude that the takeout was justified?

It is a classic can't win situation, pure and simple.

At the bottom line, I am boycotting the boycott at Santa Anita until the well intentioned horseplayers behind this ill timed effort realize that they need to postpone it for a better, clearer opportunity.

Hold back and gather the forces for a few months and there will be many who join the cause, including me. Begin this Sunday or during the first half of this Santa Anita meet and there is no chance it will accomplish anything that the CHRB will notice, or heed.

Some things are a matter of precise timing and this is one such instance.

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ADDED NOTES:  ZENYATTA continues to lead BLAME by a wide margin in my personal poll that will determine my actual Horse of the Year Vote. As previously stated, I believe the race going public deserves to have voice in this process.

My poll closes at 12:01 AM PST, on Monday,  Dec. 27.

Rules and prizes for a pair of parallel Fantasy Contests on the Kentucky Derby--one for  Charter Members and one for seasonal and yearly subscribers---will be published in my blog and on the contest page next Friday.

The contests themselves will begin on January 21.

I also will have a blog on Wednesday, evening Dec. 22, that will point out some useful Santa Anita Handicapping ideas that can be effective before we know exactly how the new dirt track is playing. The ideas come collectively from GradeOneRacing's Team Members.

Stay tuned. We have our clockers in place at Hollywood and Santa Anita for the new SoCal racing season and at Gulfstream Park for that track's 2011 meet. We also will be adding more specific Track Bias information to our Performance Notes and will be setting up a very powerful new feature that will put the spotlight on horses who recently worked and/or raced extremely well.

The horses who make our 'Preferred List' will be exclusively available to monthly, seasonal and yearly subscribers via a single mouse click. Stay tuned. We've been working hard in recent weeks to improve all the good stuff you find here on www.GradeOneRacing.com

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Plus some handicapping ideas for Santa Anita Park's new dirt racing surface.

While many believe that BLAME is going to be Horse of the Year, the early returns in my personal fan poll say that such a result will not go down well with the large numbers of people who have supported ZENYATTA'S personal appearances for the better part of 2-1/2 years.

Just read some of the commentary put under my Horse of the Year column. Just see the passion from so many women who have taken the time to register their thoughts and feelings about this great race mare.

Last year, sentiment was present, but it was two female racehorses who were on the probable Horse of the Year ballot. Hard to be a woman I guess and be for/or against RACHEL ALEXANDRA and/or ZENYATTA.

This year, Blame won the BC Classic to gain credibility among many racing writers, track officials and Daily Racing Form handicappers and correspondents. Although only about a dozen official voters have publicly committed to vote for Blame, and very few have stated their voting preference for Zenyatta, it is logical to assume that Blame is a betting favorite to win the award.

But let's not mark the result as official before all the precincts are counted.

I for one would have—in a vacuum—voted for Blame given his win over Zenyatta in the climactic, extremely dramatic, unforgettable BC Classic we saw at Churchill Downs on Nov. 6. The result was a big point in his favor, but as I previously wrote, there may be more significant points to be made here.

Zenyatta had a difficult trip and only lost by a narrow margin to a very good horse who had a perfect trip on his home track. The trip also was more difficult than the official chart represents.

Although the chart says Zenyatta was 16 lengths behind after a 1/4 mile, she was so uncomfortable during the first 220 yards, she was, by my calculations,  20 lengths behind.

Although the chart also says she was only two lengths behind at the furlong pole a careful review of the race tape says she was at least 3-1/2 lengths behind Blame at that late stage of this historic contest.

I also said, if there was a way to run the race over again, or run it X-number of times, even on the same track, I would be betting on Zenyatta to turn the tables.

Can a racing writer change his mind?

Can I see the world through the eyes of those who have written in support of Zenyatta and realize they are right? That she has meant more to the game than any horse since BARBARO evoked such sympathy after his breakdown in the 2006 Preakness and more perhaps than any horse since SECRETARIAT?

Has she not been the single most compelling racing story of 2010? Most important of all, has she not proven her exceptional quality more than once and perhaps did so even when losing narrowly to BLAME? Surely his win did not prove his superiority.

Yet, that said, my vote for Horse of the Year is no longer my vote; it is, as pledged, the vote of those racing fans who make their feelings and thoughts known in this forum.

While there still are two weeks left for racing fans to express their views, Zenyatta has a commanding lead in this poll with 80 percent of the tally. Yes, I said 80 percent! Amazing.

------------------------------- ---------------------- --------------------- ------------------------

Regarding the new dirt racing surface at Santa Anita:

This of course is a major change in direction for Southern California racing, for its horsemen and horseplayers.  

Horsemen probably are going to love it, unless of course serious problems develop after extensive usage, or when the inevitable rains come in late January and February. Horseplayers are going to say they love the change back to dirt, but inevitably will be somewhat confused by how to deal with it.

Before the synthetic era, Santa Anita's dirt racing surface frequently washed out and became a nightmare to train and race over. Some days had to be canceled—not as many as we saw canceled during the Cushion Track-Pro Ride synthetic era that formally ended at the conclusion of last year's winter-spring meet. Good riddance, but we would be naive to believe that all will be peaches and cream from Dec. 26 through mid April for a track that was layed down in a relatively short span of time.

For one thing, we will have to watch the way horses who raced at Hollywood Park during its two consecutive fall meets run over the new dirt surface. We in fact, will have no ‘horses for courses' list to safely use until 2012.For another I would expect to see early speed hold up better than it has at any of the synthetic tracks.

To be an effective player right from the git go, I also would make these suggestions:

* Remember that Hollywood, in the pre synthetic era---and more recently---always has been a good place to train and ship to Santa Anita. Some guesswork will be involved, but I personally expect the positive Hollywood to Santa Anita trend to be reaffirmed when Santa Anita opens for business on Dec 26.

* Horses who show improved training moves on the new dirt track, probably will be signaling impending improvement in Santa Anita races.

* One of the best ways for a horseplayer to get off to a good start at a new meet, or one with a new racing surface, is to look to the trainers who do exceptionally well during the first several days of the new meet. Keep an eye out also, for those horsemen who quickly reverse a negative trend; these trainers obviously gained a lot from their early defeats. 

In 2007, trainer Peter Miller went to Del Mar a few weeks early when that track unveiled it's Polytrack surface. Until that summer meet, Miller was an unheralded, low profile horsemen with few winning credentials. But he seemed to understand the need to build some stamina in his horses and the results he achieved were phenomenal.

During the same meet, however, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert struggled with the Del Mar surface. It was so different in the afternoons, compared to the mornings that Baffert and one of his principal owners-- Zayatt stable—shipped out of Del Mar to run at Saratoga. The key point here is that Miller was successful at Del Mar; but Baffert, for all his exceptional talent, was not able to train his horses the way he wanted to and did not get his usual excellent results.

So I repeat: Watch for the trainers who get off to a good start at Santa Anita and watch for positive indications in the Hollywood and Santa Anita workouts analyzed by Bruno DeJulio and his staff as they observe and comment on those works here on G1-R.com.

In addition to our expert workout analysis, you soon will find new Track Bias and Pace Bias information here to complement our Performance Notes.  These new addions to GradeOneRacing.com will come our own approaches to these important handicapping issues as well as periodic contributions from the website: www.RacingFlow.com. At the bottom line, we are sure they will help all of us understand the way Santa Anita is playing and will be quite useful as we move deeper into the meet.

Stay tuned horseplayers, Santa Anita is just around the corner and ready to give a positive jolt to So Cal racing, something that has been lacking for several years.

------------------------------ ----------------------------- ------------------------------------------

 I personally think BLAME won the right to be voted 2010 Horse of the Year over ZENYATTA when he held off that great race mare in the electrifying Breeders' Cup Classic. Yet, there is growing sentiment for a few contrarian facts that may turn many votes in her favor.

Consider:

* Zenyatta only lost the Classic narrowly on Blame's home track after she had a sluggish beginning and needed to alter course slightly to get into her best gear. Some might even look at her performance and conclude that Zenyatta was the best horse despite the diminishing margin at the wire. (I for one, would bet on her in a rematch, same distance, even the same track.)

* Given that Blame also lost a race this year, why not accept the fact that Zenyatta deserves extra points for being the biggest story of the year? Doesn't that count for something?

* Isn't Horse of the Year an award that has more dimension to it than a narrow winning result? Haven't other horses, such as Cigar and Curlin been voted Horse of the Year after losing the Breeders' Cup Classic?

While, those arguments do carry weight, I would, as stated, vote for Blame. Yet, upon considerable reflection, I think this is a perfect time to do two things:

OPEN THE HORSE OF THE YEAR VOTING TO RACEGOING FANS.

CREATE A NEW ECLIPSE AWARD: THE CAREER ACHIEVEMENT ECLIPSE.

The new Career Eclipse would be designed to honor any horse whose performances over a three year or longer period ranked that horse among the best in training. It could, of course go to a Horse of the Year, or a multiple Eclipse Award winner, or to a horse who just failed to be rated at the top of the heap while obviously being among the most accomplished horses in American racing.

Since the early 1950's this award might have been tendered to past winners of Horse of the Year, including NATIVE DANCER, ROUND TABLE, DR. FAGER, BUCKPASSER, five time Horse of the Year,  KELSO, three time winner FOREGO, as well as three stars of the 1970's--- SEATTLE SLEW, AFFIRMED, SPECTACULAR BID--- all top horses in three seasons who were our most recent Triple Crown winners. Likewise, the legendary JOHN HENRY would have deserved such a career Eclipse to go along with his two Horse of the Year trophies that were three years apart.

AZERI, another multiple Champion and Horse of the Year in 2002 would have gotten my vote for this 'new Eclipse' had it been in play,  along with a handful of great performers over an extended period of time who never were voted Horse of the Year. These include the wonderful female performers TOSMAH, and CICADA, 1972 Derby-Belmont winner RIVA RIDGE, who was a 2 year old champ in 1971 and was voted top older horse in 1973, when his stable mate Secretariat was completing a dominating two year run as one of our greatest champions.  

I also believe  that multi talented PRECISIONIST and GULCH, along with sprinter KONA GOLD and three modern steeplechasers---LONESOME GLORY. FLAT TOP and McDynamo---would have deserved career Eclipse Awards for their lengthy, successful careers.

Now it would and should go to ZENYATTA, who, if we are honest about it,  most voters in the first place probably want to honor her more for her career than her 2010 season, as good as it was. The great European miler GOLDIKOVA certainly would deserve consideration for this hypothetical award, given her three wins in the Breeders' Cup Mile. But  I personally would want to see her come back to run strongly in the 2011 BC Mile, before putting her above Zenyatta's 19 wins in 20 starts here in America.

Can the Eclipse Award committee see the opportunity?

Do they realize what a Public Relations bonanza is staring them in the face?

Some registered Eclipse Award votiers are convinced that the Eclipse Committee blew it last year when they could not sanction a move to create a tie for Horse of the Year, because there was nothing in the rules to allow for that.

My own sentiment was split in 2009. On one hand, I agreed with RACHEL ALEXANDRA'S supporters that she had a bona fide Horse of the Year campaign. But, on an equal plane, I believed that ZENYATTA was the best horse I saw in action and her Breeders' Cup Classic win was very close an equalizing credential.

Last year I realized that something was missing in the controversy. Something that I had done in fact a few times over the years in different forums. Something I believe is worth doing every year until the Eclipse Award Committee realizes the need to open the vote to the racegoing public.

What would be the harm  of creating an on-line ballot at the NTRA website for racing fans that would count for a reasonable slice (10 percent?) of the overall vote???

Forget the harm, the gain would be enormous for a sport that says every five minutes how much it needs positive stories, positive PR.

Last year, my Horse of the Year vote was cast by the combined vote of a large volume of readers who passionately expressed their differing opinions. The final tally went to Zenyatta by a two vote margin. Moreover, many well reasoned comments were worth repeating in a subsequent column.

This year, I will tally all votes received from readers of my columns here at www.GradeOneRacing.com and www.Trackmaster.com and at www.DRF.com, (if and when my DRF column is restored there).    

All votes should be sent to me via E-mail by opening day of Santa Anita, Dec. 26, 2010, care of Steve@GradeOneRacing.com. Please include your full name and your reason(s). In January, I will post the tally.

While I believe that a Career Achievement Award would be a welcome new Eclipse, especially this year, I reaffirm my strong belief that the fans of this game deserve a say in the Horse of the Year process. . .Even though you don't need any incentive to express your opinion, let me give you one:

The person who provides the best reasons along with their vote will get a free seasonal subscription to www.GradeOneRacing.com.

If you already have a subscription, you will get a free $100 bet on the horse of your choice in the 2011 Kentucky Derby.   

--------------------------------------- ------------------------------ -------------------------

Feel free to offer comments, suggestions.

Constructive criticsms  are always welcome. . .

All the Best,Steve Davidowitz.  .Steve@GradeOneRacing.com 

 

        ZENYATTA ENDS HISTORIC CAREER  WITH GALLANT PERFORMANCE

CHURCHILL DOWNS, SATURDAY, NOV, 6, 2010. . . .It was heartbreaking for many, exhilirating for many more. But the mighty mare ZENYATTA lost a race, her last race, an important milestone race, but she gained stature while making up more than 20 lengths to just miss catching the classy BLAME in the final yards of the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic on the dirt track Blame calls home.

BLAME certainly was in high form, sitting in a safe spot several lengths behind a solid pace, surging strongly to take the lead in the upper stretch while LOOKIN AT LUCKY also was making a strong bid.

The great racemare was cheered wildly in the post parade and she did her usual dances and prances as if she had warmed up enough for the race of the year.

Yet, she  was off very slowly, almost as if she were re-enacting the first half mile that we saw on Friday night here, when LIFE AT TEN trailed the Ladies Classic field by more than 15 lengths and was showing no interest in performing the role of a Thoroughbred racehorse.

Zenyatta, a 100 percent, 24 carat Thoroughbred, nevertheless was content to lag far behind the leaders--perhaps as much as 25 lengths to the rear of front running FIRST DUDE approaching the first turn.  (The official result chart says 16 lengths behind First Dude after 1/4 mile, but if that was 'only 16 lengths,' I'm a 4 foot midget.) 

Then  finally, at the half mile pole, while still more than 15 lengths behind, she kicked it in;  gaining ground and some momentum through the turn to join the pack. Entering the stretch, while clearly back on her game, she still was about six lengths behind the eventual winner who was moving forward with great strength.

Buried in traffic,  behind the retreating QUALITY ROAD, Mike Smith swiftly angled the big mare out a few paths--just as he did in last year's Classic. Then Smith moved her out a few more paths until Zenyatta was in the clear approaching the eighth pole.

The race now became a furious battle against the yards remaining as the Churchill Downs' crowd of more than 70,000 and millions more in simulcast centers, racetracks and living rooms across America gave their mighty collective roar that most probably will remember any time they go to a racetrack or watch this amazing horse race on video replay.

For a few left handed strokes, Zenyatta continued to gain ground. But it was not until Smith switched to his right hand approaching the final 1/16 miles---while Lookin At Lucky was fading a bit---and with only Blame in sight, did Zenyatta level off with one final surge, a surge so familiar to those who have seen her snatch victory from several seemingly sure defeats.

This time however, even though the big mare closed powerfully; this time,  even though she cut down on the leader's margin relentlessly, Zenyatta could not get the final five or six inches.

Mighty Casey did not strike out here; but the long hard drive from so far back for more than a full half mile in her final race, left the great mare empty, spent, completely without any last gasp answer to end her career undefeated. After the wire, Blame still had the edge, a sure sign that Zenyatta had done all she could do and those who wanted her to win would have to be satisfied with the exceptional quality of her attempt.

So ends a truly great career for the most talented older race mare I have ever seen. So probably also goes Zenyatta's claim on the 2010 Horse of the Year Award, although there are  many who saw her perform and many who saw her lose this race who will feel justified to vote otherwise. 

At the very least, I know this much: I saw a true champion in action today, a champion who went down fighting by the slimmest of margins. Sometimes, as all of who follow athletic competition must know, a true championship performance is more than most ever have to give, more than we have a right to see.

BRAVO to Blame for his winning performance which elevates him to the championship platform.  Bravo to ZENYATTA for her extraordinary career filled with so many indelible memories. Bravo for one of the great races in Breeders' Cup history.

 

 

 

 This column will spell out our Official Subscription prices. Some are lower than previously announced. I also will include specific descriptions of what each subscription will include.

 I strongly urge careful reading of the particulars.

There are two important dates to keep in mind: Nov. 10, 2010 and Dec. 31, 2010.
Nov. 10 marks the expiration of unlimited free access to all our features.
Dec. 31 marks when discounted prices end for Charter Members.

As of 6:00 PM, PDT, Sunday Oct. 17, there were 2,427 registered Charter Members on www.GradeOneRacing.com. That is astonishing support and we are committed to make this work for all of us.  (As previously stated, a Charter Member is someone who registered for free access since our launch date, July 24. . .Registration for Charter Membership will remain open until Nov. 10, four days after the 2010 Breeders' Cup.)

 PLEASE NOTE: Charter Members who do not purchase one of our subscription packages described below, still will have access to several important features on this revolutionary web site, including a few free handicapping contests.

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There will be special Daily Options at $15-20 per day, for any Pick Six Carryover that goes over $500,000, as well as for several big racing days to be determined and to be announced on our Home Page and through E-mail communications.

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Special Note: We are combining Nov. 2010 with Dec, 2010, as a single month. Therefore, the price for those two combined months will be $59.99. Also, if someone registers for a 30 day period during any part of Nov. that subscription will conclude on Dec. 31.

During Nov and Dec. 2010 we will be covering Churchill Downs, Aqueduct, Hollywood, some Fair Grounds and the first week of Santa Anita. This end of the year monthly option also will include free entry for an important Handicapping Contest  on opening Day at Santa Anita, Dec. 26.
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Seasonal Options:
We are dividing the year into three separate four month segments, each @$159.99, that is lower than the original $179.99 proce I first posted on Sept. 17.
(Charter Members will pay only $129.99).

Option 1: Winter- Early Spring.
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Each of these four month periods  will be loaded. This one not only will include the Gulfstream and Santa Anita Park race meets, it will include the Spring meets at Aqueduct and Keeneland; plus all of the major prep races for the Triple Crown at eight different tracks!

 Important Note: A subscription to this period automatically includes Nov and Dec. 2010 at no extra cost. It also comes with full eligibility for any free handicapping contest we run during the applicable period.
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 Each of the above segments may be purchased separately at $159.99 apiece; or purchased all together at a huge discount. See Option Y.

 Option Y. . . One Year Subscription.
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Repeating Important Note: A yearly subscription (Option Y) purchased anytime in Oct., Nov, or Dec. 2010, automatically includes Nov and Dec. 2010 at no extra cost.
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 Please Remember: To take advantage of Charter Members' discounted rates for any seasonal package or for Option Y (2011); your purchase must be completed on or before Dec. 31, 2010.  . .All discounted rates for Charter Members expire on Dec. 31, 2010.
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 During Nov-Dec 2010, we will offer a Free Contest for Option 1 subscribers and for Yearly subscribers (Option Y). The top prizes in this contest will be three seats and hotel expenses to the $600,000 Horseplayer's World Series at the Orleans Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas, during the Winter of 2011.

During each subsequent four month seasonal period, we also will offer at least one Free Handicapping Contest similar to those we have run this summer. . .In addition, as we link up with an established ADW for Live Money Handicapping Contests, we will introduce several new formats, some that will emulate popular poker tournaments unlike anything ever seen in contests for horseplayers. . .We hope you are with us. . .We will continue our mission to provide top flight handicapping information and handicapping tournaments you will want to play.
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What would be the optimal takeout (percentage)?”

The question certainly was a good one to contemplate, but it was taken over by other issues, including the state of California racing as supervised by the California Horse Racing Board and in particular by the ideas posed by the foremost critic of the CHRB, horse owner Jerry Jamgotchian.

Jangotchian staunchly believes that the fall of the present CHRB and the collapse economically of current Southern California racing is a prerequisite to any hope for a profitable era for horse owners and horse players. As such he encourages players to boycott all wagering on California races to make the strongest argument for change.

His position probably is best expressed by his own cryptic commentary reproduced from the Internet exchange below:

It is followed by my own take on what is going on in California, with a few less inflammatory ideas that should be at the forefront of any efforts to make the sport work in that state.

Said Jerry Jamgotchian in bold type:

“BRACKFOOL AND OTHER MEMBERS OF THE CHRB DO NOT UNDERSTAND ECONOMICS SO DON'T WASTE YOUR TIME EXPLAINING IT TO THEM.

“STOP BETTING ON CA HORSERACING AND SEND THEM A MESSAGE WHICH THEY WILL UNDERSTAND!!!!”

JERRY

---------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------- ------------------

My Personal View of what is going on in California racing.

Many caring people, many people in and out of horse racing, have no trouble understanding the issues and problems facing California racing.

Unfortunately, it is difficult to list present members of the CHRB among them in both categories. Most do care, but just as many are all too willing to sign off on dumb, counter productive  takeout increases. All too many have great difficulty realizing that there are ways to alienate the fan base and ways to take forward steps that will improve the financial picture for the sport, for the tracks, for the horsemen, for the fans and for the state's citizenry.

I do not agree with Jerry Jamgotchian 's approach either.

I do not agree that a boycott of the wagering windows can be effective. Not when the handle has been sliding downward for years. There is no way to convince everyone not to bet, especially since the majority of the handle occurs out of state. Moreover, there is no way that a further decline will wake up California racing officials  any more than the steady declines have to date. 

If the handle were up and a boycott was initiated because of some new policy, then a boycott would make a telling point. Lacking that, California racing needs more insightful options.

One of those options would be the lower takeout that Roger has been recommending.

What is the optimal takeout?

My view: No higher than 15 percent on all single bet wagers;

17 percent on Exactas, Quinellas, Trifectas, Daily Doubles; 

18 percent on multi race wagers involving three to five races;

20 percent on Superfectas, Pick Sixes and the Place Pick All. 

And, I would have at least one day each meet in which the handle on ALL wagers would be reduced to 10-12 percent as special fan appreciation day(s); days in which the impact of a serious drop in takeout could be measured by financial experts.

Consider: If a meet long drop in the takeout led to a stable or higher handle, or an increase, well that would make a definitive statement.  So would a sharp rise on the special lower takeout day.

(Fact is, a vast majority of financial experts who have studied the impact of reduced takeouts on wagering handles- have concluded that properly handled, lower takeouts usually have a positive impact.  And there is some practical history here. CHRB members should study what NY did in an experiment in the 1970's. Basically, they lowered the takeout as quietly as possible and that led to higher handles and they raised it also on the QT and that led to lower handles, etc. The only notification for the handle changes were in the result charts where the specific takeout info used to be presented every racing day.)

Other options are needed, including perhaps  a consolidation of the northern and southern Cal racing schedules.  This model existed in the 1950's when the meets were complimentary and the idea was not to over saturate  the race going public with year round racing in each segment of the state. Racing today in California, including SoCal, often is racing for racing's sake, not for the benefit of the breed, the industry, the track's financial welfare and the attention span of its most loyal fans.

Another possible option is to follow to some extent the model provided this summer by Monmouth Park, where purses  were concentrated for a three day race week.

Purses of course, were inflated by a special allocation  at least $20 million that can be traced to the legislated relationship with Atlantic City Casinos that may or may not continue.

But next year, Monmouth is likely to remain a weekend track with above average purses, with or without the extra cash. Moreover, California's wagering pools are large enough right now, even with the declines, to support a Friday-Sat.Sun race week which would permit an up tick in the overall quality of daily racing as well as make those weekend dates special. At present, California is supporting too much of the same daily fare with an unfortunate accent on small fields and cheap maiden claimers.  There not only is a decline in the horse population, but the quality has dropped significantly through much of the year as well.

There also are untried promotions, which would require CHRB approval: Such as a rich handicapping contest, in which only those who have attended the host track during the previous week, or the previous  weekend, would get a free ticket to the track and the right to participate in the contest. This, it seems to me, would  be far more effective use of a marketing budget than any shirt or hat giveaway.

At the bottom line, it is simply wrong-headed that any CHRB official believes that racing needs to accent its entertainment value for families more than it needs to lower the takeout-cost to the player. Making a day at the track a good experience certainly is a goal for every track. But It is absurd to compare the sport to baseball where legal wagering is NOT a fundamental reason to buy (expensive!) seats at the ballpark.

To do a proper job of revitalizing racing in California, the CHRB needs insightful leaders who will have the guts to allocate shorter race meets and or weekend racing for most of the year. The members of the CHRB who believe they are making positive moves raising takeouts, do not have the inspiration or the leadership qualities to regulate the best gambling game man has ever invented. They lack a feel for the large numbers of people who still love the sport but feel completely alienated by a long list of managerial and administrative errors.

At the bottom line, If the present CHRB members really want to help rebuild racing in California, each member needs to look in the mirror and really see what a mess they and some of their predecessors have made. Resignations would be worthwhile to consider; but those members who actually want to help the sport---those members who are willing to see what actually is going on---they need to justify their roles with bold initiatives. This is no time for  wishy washy, politically inspired panaceas that offer nothing of positive value for the long term health of a great sport and a multi billion dollar agri-business under stress. The game can not afford more poorly thought-out policies  orchestrated by the CHRB (and/or any self interested racing organization) that can  only depress California racing's prospects for recovery.

Your comments are welcome.

 Steve Davidowitz

CEO-Editor in Chief.

www.GradeOneRacing.com

 

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This personal essay appears simultaneously on my TrackMaster column space, where for 15 years, I have contributed monthly free access columns.

www.TrackMaster.com  supports GradeOneRacing's goals to provide horseplayers with top flight handicapping information and as some of you may know, I provide TM's web  site with a regular weekly feature: Steve Davidowitz' Handicapping Hints and Spot Selections on the Saturday Simulcast Menu. (Under 'Best Bets' at TrackMaster.com) 

It goes for a $15 fee, for which I apologize, given how erratic my selections have been this year.  But I do try to share handicapping ideas and ways to design tickets and I donate more than half of my end to worthy racing causes. And, every so often we do make a big score, especially on major racing days.

In any case, the following essay felt important to share with GradeOneRacing subscribers at this precise time, even though we are rapidly approaching our third handicapping contest this weekend. (For more on the Oct 2-Oct-3 contest, please check the contest page and/or read my next blog on Wednesday).

At the bottom line, I feel strongly about what is happening to our game.  

Your comments are encouraged.

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This is my 39th year covering horse racing for publication; my 50th year following the sport.

In that time, I have seen countless thousands of races, probably shoved more than $20 million through pari-mutuel machines, visited at least 75 tracks from Maine to California; Canada to Louisiana; Florida to Washington State. Among them were the bullrings of several Massachusetts county fairs; beautiful and oversized Belmont Park, plus more than two dozen Harness tracks and a like number that hosted Quarter Horses, Mules and Arabians.

I was at 10 different tracks and more than 20 Race Books and off track betting outlets this year alone, doing handicapping seminars, promoting my book, "Betting Thoroughbreds for the 21st Century" and introducing my new web site, www.GradeOneRacing.com, which has an astonishing 2121 members after only seven weeks.

I've been to more than 30 tracks that no longer exist, including both versions of Garden State Park, the track where I cut my eye teeth as a prospective professional player while majoring in handicapping at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, New Jersey. I almost mean that literally. I set my schedule at Rutgers so that I had two days off from classes to go to the track, plus Saturdays.

My first Kentucky Derby was 1973 and I do not have to tell you what an historical race that turned out to be. I can still remember doing a jig around the press box copy machine with Bill Nack, moments after SECRETARIAT crossed the finish line.

My first Preakness was 1972 and while I did not pick BEE BEE BEE to upset my play in the Derby -RIVA RIDGE - I did make more money that day than "Riva" did on a stone cold, rain soaked front-running track that Riva absolutely hated.

My first Belmont in 1961 was the one that Eddie Arcaro chose to spend on a New Jersey golf course, giving up the mount on 65-1 shot SHERLUCK to the young riding star, Braulio Baeza. Arcaro later explained that he thought CARRY BACK was "a cinch to complete a sweep of the Triple Crown" but the Derby and Preakness winner was "over the top" and jockey Johnny Sellers had to settle for four wins on that card witnessed by former President Dwight D. Eisenhower.

I saw Secretariat's first race at Aqueduct, called Andy Beyer in Washington and told him that he should bet this horse next time he runs and that he "just might turn out to be the year's best 2 year old." As this immortal horse is the subject of a movie that most of us will see very soon, there are two things that stand out in my mind most about "Big Red."

* Although he lost five races in a 21 race career, including the DQ he deserved for interference in the Champagne and three others that the people behind him made crucial mistakes; Secretariat ran and won eight races that no horse I have ever seen would have beaten him on those days. (The Hopeful and Laurel Futurity as 2-year-old; the Derby, Preakness, Belmont, Marlboro Cup, Man O'War and Canadian International.

* He set the track record in all three Triple Crown races and never got proper credit for his Preakness track record when, as I've written countless times, the teletimer did not run as well as he did. More importantly, the people who run Maryland racing willingly allowed a stain on Pimlico and the historic record book to remain incorrect despite considerable evidence placed on their doorstep.

Although the great RACHEL ALEXANDRA of 2009 turned in some amazing performances in an aggressive Horse of the Year campaign, I still believe that RUFFIAN was the fastest and best 3-year-old filly I ever saw. I also think that ZENYATTA is the most talented older mare I have seen, while PERSONAL ENSIGN, BAYAKOA and GO FOR WAND are close enough and faced better fields in their careers to leave room for legitimate arguments.

For about seven years, Jerry Bailey at his best, was a shade better than anyone I've seen ride, but I only saw glimpses of Bill Shoemaker at his best and Arcaro was in the twilight of his storied career when I decided to make the first $100 bet of my life on a horse he rode at Aqueduct.

Bill Hartack, Angel Cordero Jr., the aforementioned Braulio Baeza, Gary Stevens, Manny Ycaza and Eddie Delahoussaye were better than anyone riding today, although Garret Gomez is close enough to be given a tumble and there are several riders including Rafael Bejarano, Julien Leparoux, Ramon Dominguez, Joel Rosario and Martin Garcia who command respect for their talent and dedication to continue to improve each season.

The best horse trainers I have watched and wagered on with great confidence include Charlie Whittingham, Laz Barrera, Billy Mott, Woody Stephens, Mack Miller, Elliot Burch and Bob Baffert.

D. Wayne Lukas certainly was prolific in his prime as is his disciple Todd Pletcher; but, Lukas went through far too many horses in pursuit of glory for my tastes and Pletcher has more top horses to work with than any three other trainers combined.

I confess also that I only knew Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons and Max Hirsch by reputation. Thankfully I am not that old.

The best individual horse owner, I believe, was John Galbreath of Darby Dan Farm, although legendary Calumet Farm has to rank first when you study the record books. No stable ever dominated racing like Calumet in the 1940's and 1950's. The Phipps Family - from the days of Eddie Neloy in the 1970's through Shug McGaughey's current 25 year reign - has been right up there with the great owners of by-gone years and the same is true for Claiborne Farm.

The best racing writers I have known are: Bill Nack, Andrew Beyer, Joe Hirsch and Charles Hatton. No offense to many good racing writers; but no one else comes close enough to extend the list.

All this is set forth to make just a few points:

I have seen enough to know that the racing game I grew up with is gone forever.

What we have now are far too many tracks running far too many racing dates and all but very few could cut more than half of those dates without anyone really caring - anyone other than horse trainers who believe they have a sanctified right to run their uninspiring stock in five and six horse fields with inflated purses - supported, for now, by slot machine revenue. Frankly, what we have now are too many racing officials, track managers and legislators who believe in two misguided principles.

* That takeout rates can be raised virtually at will to make up for shortfalls in state budgets without regard to the negative impact on the game's health or future.

* That slot machines are a must for racing's survival.

What I believe is what Padua Stable owner Satish Sanan has been recommending in his proposals for dramatic, sensible change:

* A reorganization of racing across state lines must be given the highest priority and this reorganization would have to include the closing of many tracks that would be forced to close anyway without slot revenue.

* That a scaled down racing season with at least 33 percent fewer races nationwide is a realistic ambition for reform that would help the sport survive and thrive.

I also believe the above two goals are impossible to achieve without people like Sanan and those who understand his imperatives for change, dropping their own resistance to seek out sympathetic Congressional leadership in Washington to force the industry into hearings for its own self preservation.

Racing when I started reading a 50 cent Daily Racing Form in the 1960's was state authorized, state run. There was no reason to think in terms of federalizing any part of the game, short of limiting the wire services and media outlets from transmitting racing information across state lines. The key provisions in national racing related legislation of the 1930's through the 1960's was mostly to protect bookies by limiting the dissemination of racing results until at least 30 minutes past the official result.

Those days also are gone forever. Racing today is as much interstate commerce as the trucking industry that ships hard goods and produce via our interstate network of highways and trains.

Racing today depends upon tens of millions of dollars wagered across state and international lines all year long. Racing today has trainers who ship horses via private jet from a track in New York to Florida, California, Illinois and every other state. Yet racing in 2010, still is controlled selfishly by state governments that insist upon sticking with outdated laws, inconsistent rules, illogical drug policies, wildly disparate testing procedures and penalties that all too often get overturned or delayed by lengthy court challenges.

There are conflicting laws that spell out the requirements for horse ownership in neighboring states. The takeout rules extract exorbitant percentages on some bets and not on others. Tracks in New Jersey for example, must comply with state laws to set their takeout rates while other states that play to the same interstate customers have different rates for the same bets. That said, it is even possible for a track in Florida to set whatever rates it wants, for whatever purposes, without fear of commission review no matter how exorbitant.

In the meantime, states have legalized dozens of lotteries that rip off the public with takeout rates that reach 50 percent and have tendered licenses to dozens upon dozens of casinos who cannibalize racetrack revenues and also offer games that give paltry paybacks to unsuspecting players. These same casinos are given permissive options to offer as many freebies to prospective customers as they wish, while racetracks have a hard time offering a free lunch to its best customers for fear of breaking more of those archaic laws imposed by their host state.

If ever there was cause for a Federal inquiry into "what is going on here?" I have never seen it. Well maybe I have. Think auto Industry. Think how for almost two decades the executives at GM, Ford and Chrysler lost market share to Japanese cars. Toyota for one, built better cars, priced them lower and provided consumers with high gas mileage rates to offset rising gas prices.

The Feds always get criticized for their sluggish bureaucracy. If the Feds get involved, we are warned that we will see more red tape, more overbearing supervision and inefficient administration.

Yet, without the Federal presence we would not have Social Security, Unemployment Compensation, the best long distance highways in the world; pretty good armed services; Medicare for the aging among us; laws that protect against racial, religious and sexual discrimination. We also would not have a recovering auto industry that was on its death bed less than two years ago.

In my judgment, all the forward thinking people inside the industry who have worked hard with Satish Sanan to try and privately convince The Jockey Club, the National Thoroughbred Racing Association, the various horse ownership and training groups to work together, must change their focus.

There are only two ways we may see needed change in American racing in my remaining life on this planet.

* When and if a major collapse of the game occurs similar to the way the Auto Companies were about to drown in their own mistakes. That is when the Feds will step in. They always like to investigate a complete collapse.

* Sanan and others in his group must give up their efforts to work internally. They need instead to lose their own resistance to seeking out Federal assistance and shift their agenda towards sympathetic Congressman and Senators to launch a Federally inspired hearing to force each racing state to come together on a national level. The justification for this is the interstate nature of modern horseracing and the negative impact the declining American game is having on many sectors of our national economy. Think declines in various agri-businesses. Think of the vacation and entertainment industries. Think the impact racing's steady decline is having on dozens of businesses that support racing in every region of the country.

Yes, there have been some forward initiatives within the sport to normalize racing and drug rules, (without the same level of testing, I am afraid). Yes, there has been some consolidation of some racing schedules, including the elimination of racing days at several tracks (most notably Del Mar), reductions forced by contemporary economic trends. But, we are a long way from the day when the sport was front page news during Secretariat's Triple Crown run. We are falling way behind the way racing is positively played in Australia and the Orient where no conflicts between race meets and or major racing days exist and, where daily betting handles exceed $100 million plus and 75,000 fans attend every weekend.

Those last facts speak loudly to the emotional and artistic power the Thoroughbred racehorse still holds over humankind in the 21st Century.

As I see it, nothing at all is wrong with the sport of horse racing that we need to change. What needs change is the way the sport is run, the way it is taxed and adjudicated, the way players are treated, the way purse money is distributed, and the way each state is pulling the game apart at its seems.

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On a personal level, it is extremely gratifying to see the idea Peter Rinato and I developed in 2008 finally coming to life with a web site that works so smoothly. A web site designed to provide horseplayers with an array of high quality handicapping information on a variety of fronts that cannot be found on any other site, or publication at the same time.

We have Bruno Dejulio's insightful Workout Analysis on more than 2500 horses who have trained on the Southern California circuit in 2010. We have unprecedented Workout Reports on more than 600 horses who trained this summer at Saratoga and we are going to have more of that, plus Bruno's Keeneland and Churchill Downs Workout Reports this fall leading to the Breeders' Cup, as well as full time Workout Reports from Gulfstream Park this winter.

We have Lauren Stich's world renown Pedigree Analysis of more than 1,500 two year olds who made their debuts at Keeneland, Churchill Downs, Belmont Park, Hollywood Park, Saratoga, Del Mar and Saratoga this summer.

Exclusive to GradeOneRacing.com, Lauren also separately provides weekly columns devoted to specific pedigrees of major stakes winners and already has posted her unique lists of potent Hidden Turf Sires and Freshman Sires with more to come this fall into 2011.

These lists are so popular that before we launched I regularly received E-mails asking if ‘Lauren's lists' would be published on our web site. The reason for this enthusiasm is obvious: They help astute players pick juicy priced winners in maiden turf races and they help identify precocious young horses and horses who will need time to develop.

Our Performance Notes, supplied by professional winning horseplayers are not intended to substitute for the good information we all see in Daily Racing Form past performances and Equibase result charts. We do not do Performance Notes on every horse in every race. No need to add to the obvious. Our Performance Notes are designed to add insights to Equibase footnotes and DRF past performance lines when there is depth to be added.

They point out important pace issues and pace irregularities that influence the outcome; they spell out signs of depleted energy and/or strong or weak gallop-outs past the finish line. They also identify Track Bias issues and jockey decisions that meaningfully impact the way the race may have been won or lost. They lead to better plays, pure and simple. I could cite many examples including 3-5 shots who had negative reports who finished out of the money to horses who showed something extra after the finish who came back to win next time out.

Beginning this fall and into 2011, we will expand on our Performance Notes in several ways:

* We will have notes on dozens of races at Keeneland, Churchill Downs and Gulfstream Park.

* We will provide specific lists for days at those tracks and at Hollywood Park, Santa Anita and Aqueduct when there is a predominant Track Bias, or a single race pace bias in play.

As someone who coined the term TRACK BIAS, and wrote about single race pace biases in Betting Thoroughbreds for the 21St Century, I believe there are many misconceptions about the actual potency of these handicapping factors. As such, I feel a responsibility to post a series of columns on how to recognize a potent bias when it occurs and when to pay no attention to it at all.

As of right now, we have Performance Notes on more than 2500 horses who raced this summer at Saratoga, Del Mar and Monmouth Park, plus about 100 more who raced in stakes at Arlington Park and other tracks. This weekend we are charting the horses who are running in stakes at Woodbine, including Bruno DeJulio and MollyJo Rosen's 's own horse, the 2 year old RONIN DAX, an impressive maiden winner at Del Mar last month who is being tested for his class in the Summer Stakes on Saturday. Obviously Bruno and Molly Jo are at Woodbine for the weekend.

I was at Saratoga for 15 racing days this summer and was at Del Mar for 12.

I was at Sunland Park for the Sunland Derby; The Fair Grounds for several days in February; Oaklawn Park for Zenyatta and the Arkasas Derby in April; Canterbury Park for Claiming Crown in July  and at Arlington for several days in early August. I took copious notes on what I saw as did other team members.

Bruno is going to be at the Florida sales during the winter (along with a newly hired clocker) and we will see Bruno's notes in his workout reports when those yearlings and 2 year olds of racing age show up in actual 2011 races.

GradeOneRacing.com will be all over the Breeders' Cup, just as we will be at every major prep race for the 2011 Triple Crown. I will be at Gulfstream, Aqueduct, Santa Anita and other southwestern and mid western tracks where top Derby prospects will compete. All of those special racing days have many other supporting stakes and good maiden and allowance races. We will have notes on all of them.

 All this, plus our popular Handicapping Contests.

So far, we have hosted two $5,000 competitions, with NO ENTRY FEES  and have scheduled another $5,000 contest for Oct. 2-3, when there will be excellent stakes at Belmont Park, Hollywood and Keeneland all pointing towards the 2010 Breeders' Cup.

All of this information and the handicapping contests have been totally FREE, with no charges to anyone. Likewise, we are hosting a FREE $12,500 Handicapping Contest on the Breeders' Cup races open to all subscribers who played in at least one of our three $5,000 contests.

We, and our investors, were happy to absorb all the costs associated with providing a web site that works, a web site with so much useful handicapping information and legit opportunities for players to participate in our contests.

We did this to introduce ourselves and convince more than 2000 horseplayers that we are on to something here, something worthwhile, something that not only provides good information all in one place, but proves beyond a reasonable doubt that there are more horseplayers out there who want good information and want more handicapping contests than many critics of the game can possibly imagine.

As I explained in my first column on this site, we struggled for two years to get the financing we needed to launch. But our struggle was rewarded with enough money to get into the starting gate and take several strong forward steps.

We also indicated then---and in several instances since---that we would inevitably set up subscription packages for all who would want to stay on board. We stated then and repeat now that we are free to all through the 2010 Breeders' Cup.

 Of equal import, we now are ready to post our fair and square prices for our subscription options and will offer discounted rates to CHARTER MEMBERS---those of you who are here now and those who may yet join between now and the BC at Churchill Downs in Nov.

 OUR SUBSCRIPTION PACKAGES ARE AS FOLLOWS:

 * DAILY OPTION: For any single day's access, $7.50 for all our handicapping information; with no discounts, no handicapping tournament eligibility.

 * MONTHLY OPTION: For Any Single Month, beginning Jan. 2011, . . .$79.99, (Charter Members price $66.99), available with an auto renewal option at the Charter Member price. Comes with limited Handicapping Contest eligibility.

SPECIAL NOTE: We are combining Nov. 2010 with Dec, 2010, as a single month and the price for those two combined months will be $79.99 (Charter Members, price $66.99.) . .During Nov and Dec. 2010 we will be covering Churchill Downs, Aqueduct, Hollywood, some Fair Grounds and the first week of Santa Anita.  This monthly option will include Handicapping Contest Eligibility for an important Free Contest on opening Day at Santa Anita,

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SEASONAL OPTIONS: We are dividing the year into three separate four month segments, each with considerable potency. For each of the three designated four month subscription periods outlined below, the regular price would be $179.99, (Charter Members price, $129.99)

OPTION 1: WINTER-FOUR MONTH PERIOD. . .JANUARY 1 through APRIL 30. 

($179.99 and/or $129.99 for Charter Members) . .This first four month period will include the Gulfstream and Santa Anita race meets and all of the major prep races for the Triple Crown at eight different tracks!

 Important Note: A subscription to this period automatically includes Nov and Dec. 2010 at no extra cost. It also comes with full Handicapping Contest eligibility.

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OPTION 2: SPRING-SUMMER PERIOD. . .MAY 1 through AUGUST  31.

($179.99 and/or $129.99 for Charter Members). . .This second four month period will include all three Triple Crown races, plus coverage of Churchill Downs during their spring meet; some Pimlico; all of Belmont and Hollywood Park and the high profile race meets at Saratoga and Del Mar!

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OPTION 3: FALL--EARLY WINTER PERIOD. . .SEPTEMBER 1 through DEC. 31.

($179.99 and/or $129.99 for Charter Members). . .Covers the Fall Championship meets at Belmont Park, Keeneland, Oak Tree and Hollywood Park, plus all 50+ Breeders' Cup prep races and the two day, Breeders' Cup itself. This package also will include some Arlington, Woodbine, Churchill Downs, the Fair Grounds and the full Aqueduct fall meet. 

 Each of the above segments may be purchased separately; or purchased at for the year at a huge discount----Option Y.

 OPTION Y. . .For a One Year subscription—for all 12 months,  the price for Charter Members who act on or before Nov. 10, is $275, a savings of almost $200 for all three segments.

For non-Charter Members, or those who sign up after Nov. 10, the price will be discounted to $375

Repeating Important Note: A yearly subscription (Option Y) automatically includes Nov and Dec. 2010 at no extra cost.

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SPECIAL EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT PRICE: Simply send an E-mail to me: Steve@GradeOneRacing.com) indicating your desire to lock in for a one year's subscription and you will get the year for $250. . .This deal also includes the final two months of 2010and Full Contest Eligibility.

  Upon receipt of your E-mail, I will confirm the price personally and notify you on or about Sept. 30 via E-Mail, that our secure Credit Card service is operational.   That is the one rub here. No one may sign up directly via their credit cards until the secure Credit Card  server has been fully tested and is rready for prime time, Sept. 30. 

 But Please Remember: To take advantage of Charter Member's discounted rates, you must choose to subscribe by Nov. 10. . . You can do this right now by locking-in your preference for any package via direct E-mail to me and/or when the secure Credit Card server is operational on or about Sept. 30.

The bottom line is that all discounted rates will expire on Nov. 10.

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A FINAL WORD ABOUT HANDICAPPING CONTESTS.

 During Nov-Dec 2010,  we will offer a FREE CONTEST for Option 1 subscribers and for Yearly subscribers (Option Y). The top prizes in this contest will be three seats and hotel expenses to the $600,000 Horseplayer's World Series at the Orleans Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas, during the winter of 2011.

During each four month period, we also will offer at least one Free Handicapping Contests similar to the ones we have run this summer. . .In addition, as we link up with an established ADW for LIVE MONEY HANDICAPPING CONTESTS, we will introduce a wide menu of formats, some that will emulate popular poker tournaments unlike anything ever seen in contests for horseplayers. . .We hope you are with us. . .We will continue our mission to provide top flight handicapping information and handicapping tournaments you will want to play.

 All the Best/Steve Davidowitz

Steve@GradeOneRacing.com

At Saratoga:

 Todd Pletcher's QUALITY ROAD did win the nine furlong Woodward stakes by open daylight over the Bob Baffert trained MYTHICAL POWER. But frankly I thought he looked vulnerable through the lane. Vulnerable that is, if Whitney stakes winner BLAME had been in the race, or for that matter, the unbeaten mare ZENYATTA. Vulnerable if we think ahead to the 1-1/4 mile Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs on Nov. 6.

 Quality Road is very good horse with good overall speed and he has the ability to be placed in contact with the pace, rather than be a one dimensional need-the-lead type. But the 4 yr old son of Elusive Quality has lost his two previous tries at the 10 furlong BC Classic distance and I seriously doubt he will be able to withstand top notch competition in the final furlong of any legit Grade-1 race at 10 furlongs.

 What he does have going for him however, is the incredible lack of top notch 10 furlong horses presently firing on all cylinders here in America.

  Right now, I count just Blame, Zenyatta as the two best; while RICHARD'S KID, who won his second Pacific Classic at Del Mar at 1-1/4 miles on Aug. 28, is a confirmed synthetic track specialist whose form on dirt remains suspect.

 The other genuine 10 furlong American based horses must include the top 3 year old LOOKIN AT LUCKY, who unfortunately has been dealing with physical issues since he impressively won the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park, Aug.1 Fact is, Baffert has not been able to get a single workout into his star 3 year old. Time is running out for ‘Lucky' to be in the BC Classic mix.

 Frankly, the rest of the American based horses that seem to be pointing towards the Classic are borderline G-1 horses such as the Travers duo AFLEET EXPRESS  and FLY DOWN, who finished a very tight photo that needed unusual magnification to determine the actual winner.

 Afleet Express has some room for further development, but is not in Blame or Zenyatta's league. Fly Down has yet to learn how to change leads and obviously could advance a few lengths forward if trainer Nick Zito can manage that trick during the next month or so.

 That said, Blame and Zenyatta and even Lookin at Lucky will not have the BC Classic completely to themselves.

 Think European.

 Think Giant's Causeway, who was second to Tiznow at Churchill Downs in 2000; Sakhee, who was second to Tiznow at Belmont Park in 2001, and Raven's Pass, who won the 2008 BC Classic at Santa Anita. Think European because they have a deep army of genuine 10 furlong horses over there and we already have seen that the top Euros who possess decent breeding for dirt can give our very best horses all they can handle at a distance well within their scope.

 In the 7 Furlong Forego at Saratoga on the same day the Woodward was run, disappointments were registered everywhere with the failure of Godolphin stable's VINEYARD HAVEN to do better than  third while his stablemate GIROLOMO was a tiring fifth and obviously needed the race. The winner HERE COMES BEN is a nice horse who has advanced up the ladder to the G-1 level this year and certainly can not be discounted as a potential contender in either the $1 million BC Dirt Mile around one turn at Churchill, or the 6 furlong $2 million BC Sprint.

Until suffering a career ending fracture in a morning workout at Saratoga on Sunday, the extremely fast  MAJESTICPERFECTION looked to be the best sprinter in America. And, as stated in a previous version of this column written on Friday, Sept, 3, it was this horse's own well being,  more than anything else, that threatened his claim to a potential championship. Now, with surgeons attempting to save his life, the BC Sprint will remain wide open pending the next round of prep stakes at Belmont Park and Hollywood.

 At DEL MAR:

 There was a $1.5 million Pick Six carryover into the Saturday, Sept. 4 racing card. The Del Mar Polytrack racing surface, the most inconsistent, hard to decipher main track I have ever seen, played strongly towards speed types through the first half of the racing card.

 There have been days at this 37 race meet, where that was true for half the races and not true at all for the other half. Either way, the key to picking winners here this season had much to do with trainers who seemed to be in synch with which of their horses were handling the track and which jockeys seemed to know the preferred running style and/or the best lanes on any given day.

 The turf course played mostly true to form, in that stretch runners did well in races that featured a contentious pace---as they should---and front runners and near the pace types fared best when the course began to wear down during the second half of the meet.

 On another topic, I found it difficult to point to more than just one 2 year old who competed at Del Mar this summer who looked to be a genuine Grade-1 performer. The one who did was the filly, TELL A KELLY, winner of a maiden race on Aug. 15 who improved on cue to win the $250,000 Del Mar Debutante at 7 furlongs on Saturday. Tell A Kelly rated well behind a speed duel and launched a smooth rally to open up on her field in mid stretch as if this daughter of Tapit out of a Tabasco Cat mare will appreciate longer distances.

 Otherwise, some of the lightly raced young ladies who finished behind Tell A Kelly will have to improve significantly to be serious G-1 performers.

 As for the male 2 year olds who will run on Del Mar's final 2010 program on Wednesday, Sept. 8 might force a reevaluation. But so far, the best 2 year olds I have seen so far this year are based in the east. More about that after the 7 furlong Hopeful stakes is run at Saratoga on closing Day Monday, Sept. 6.

 WWW.GradeOneRacing.com news:

Last week, I stated that we would post our subscription rates for various packages swithin a week or so. We will. But not in this forum. Instead I will post them in my next blog,  Thursday, Sept. 9.

 Again:

* All our highly refined handicapping information and all or Handicapping Contests will remain FREE from now through the Breeders' Cup.

 * All present subscribers will be entitled to discounts for any of our subscription packages.

 *There will be expanded workout coverage and new features introduced with the post Breeders' Cup period.

 Please know that your feedback is encouraged and your comments to any column, or blog on this web site will be reprinted intact so long as no personal attacks against anyone are included.

 Please also note that on Sunday, Sept, 5, at 12:30 PM,  I will conduct my annual Del Mar Handicapping Seminar on the track apron (near the furlong pole). If you're coming out for a great Sunday racing card, please stop by and introduce yourself.

 All the Best/Steve Davidowitz

 That's more than double the projections Peter Rinato and I contemplated for the first four weeks of this experimental web site.

 Naturally, all of us working here----including Peter, Bruno DeJulio, Lauren Stich, MollyJo Rosen, our private clockers and Performance Note commentators, web designer and support personnel----are encouraged by this response.

 I am equally encouraged by the dozens of E-mails I have received that speak to the various features we are presenting, which as advertised have been and will remain FREE FOR ALL FROM NOW THROUGH THE BREEDERS' CUP!

  As I explained in my first column, we will not be free forever. We cannot hope to provide all the high quality handicapping information you find here without a revenue stream any more than we can expand the site's services to more tracks.

 Sometime soon, perhaps in this space next week and posted in a special section that will be clearly noted, I will include our schedule of subscription rates for the post Breeders' Cup period, through 2011.

 Be assured that we will remain free for all features and all handicapping contests through the Breeders' Cup and that all of our subscription prices will be among the best bargains possible.  Perhaps most important of all, ‘Charter Members' of GradeOneRacing.com---all 1300 current subscribers and all others who sign on through the end of our free period---will be given special discounts that will carry on well beyond 2011.

 There will be:

* Single day subscriptions.

 *Packages for a month. . . two months.  . . and three months.

* Triple Crown packages.

* Saratoga-Del Mar Packages.

* Breeders' Cup packages

and

* Yearly subscriptions.

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In addition to all that you presently find here, there will be several new features too, including:

* More workout reports from major league tracks where there are no other sources for such information anywhere.

* Track Bias profiles for the tracks we cover.

* Guest Columnists from the inside of this game we love.

* More Handicapping Contests, including contests that will offer tickets to lucrative Las Vegas based contests with hundreds of thousands of dollars at stake.

 As we move forward, we also will offer several handicapping contests with formats that our patent attorney says are so revolutionary that they will inspire daily action.

Speaking of www.GradeOneRacing.com's Handicapping Contests.

We are running our second of four handicapping competitions on Saturday, using five races from the Travers Day card and five from the Pacific Classic card at Del Mar. We also have changed the entry deadline for selections and the scratch rule includes a place for an alternate selection.

Please check the Handicapping Contest pages to see the new rules we've put into play.

 IMPORTANT REMINDER: To participate in our $12,500 Handicapping Contest that will be based on Breeders' Cup races, Nov 5 and Nov 6, you must play in at least one of our three $5,000 handicapping contests.

One was already run and done on July 31-Aug 1; the second is being run this Saturday; and the third will take place on Breeders' Cup Preview Days, Oct. 2 and Oct. 3.

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Del Mar Notes, for Aug. 18-22.

(For Saratoga Notes, please see the bottom of my Aug 24-25 G1-R Blog.) 

The Del Mar main track continued to be perplexing, in that the moist cloud cover from the Pacific Ocean never burned off for nearly four straight weeks (please see previous discussions of why that is important). Yet, despite the presence of so much natural moisture,  track officials continued to water the Polytrack anyway. The net result was a series of unpredictable lane biases; biases that disappeared between races and occasionally---- a track surface that played bias free without notice.

 Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert summed it up perfectly a few days ago:

“The main track is a mess and I seriously doubt I will race here next year.”

 Things have gotten so out of hand that the manufacturers of Polytrack reportedly have withdrawn their insured support for the surface because, as one insider said without willing to identified in a published forum: “The surface does not resemble what was designed for this meet anymore.”

 At the bottom line I believe this much also is true about the Del Mar Polytrack:

 *Any horse who runs well on it probably can run anywhere.

 * Any horse who handles it well, surely will love running on almost any other racing surface on god's earth.

 As for the turf course, predictably, at this time of the year when the course has been used an average of 10 races per week, front runners and near the pace types tend to dominate. At the same time, the cloud cover that has kept so much natural moisture on the main track also has helped keep the turf course a bit moist and this has retarded the speed tendency just enough to create a normal, bias free course. As a horseplayer who plays both Saratoga and Del Mar during their prized summer meets, I love being at both tracks and willingly fly cross country twice each summer to get my taste of both. As for Del Mar in 2010, I am hoping against hope that the quality of the races overrides the difficulties with the racing surface, especially for this weekend's Graded stakes and on the Labor Day weekend, when Del Mar's final four days offer some of the best racing anywhere in America. Please also note that I will be at Del Mar for those final four racing days and will present my annual handicapping seminar in front of the grandstand, on Sunday, Sept. 5. Good luck to us all.

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The headlines in the Adirondak region are saying this about the feature race at Saratoga Saturday:

“AN HISTORIC FILLYCONFRONTATION IS ON TAP TODAY AT AMERCA'S OLDEST RACETRACK.”

The 130th Alabama stakes at Saratoga is the kind of race we were hoping to see last year when the world wanted RACHEL ALEXANDRA  to meet ZENYATTA . While we still wait for that one to materialize, we do have BLIND LUCK vs. DEVIL MAY CARE in a Classic 1-1/4 mile race that will go a long way towards determining the champion 3 year old filly of 2010.

Blind Luck, with eight victories, two seconds and two thirds from her 12 career starts, is a heart-stopping, stretch-running fool who has made a career out of winning important races in several states by little more than an inch.

Devil May Care was the filly who many believed could win this year's Kentucky Derby. Although she finished 10th of 20, She made a good bid to reach a prominent position in the upper stretch only to fade late. Coming out of that race, Devil May Care won a pair of prestigious G-1 stakes for fillies in New York.

Going into the the Alabama she has five wins from eight starts and will have the home court advantage. Moreover, as a filly who has appeared to get stronger as the distances have increased, Devil May Care will be the solid favorite to take this step towards an Eclipse Award.

Yet, no one should dismiss Blind Luck. She has seemed defeated before and managed to get to the wire first.

At Arlington Park about 20 miles northwest of downtown Chicago, we have the annual trio of G-1 grass stakes: The traditional Arlington Million; the $750,000 Beverly D and the $400,000 Secretariat..

GIO PONTI---the 2009 dual Eclipse Award winner as this country's top grass performer and top older handicap horse---is seeking to become the first horse to win a second Arlington Million. While the competition seems deep, and Gio Ponto has performed slightly below his 2009 form, he still is the horse to beat.

In the Beverly D., Arlington's owner Richard Duchossois has ÉCLAIR DE LUNE,  a German bred he privately purchased in the hope he could win the race named after his deceased wife.

The 4 yr old filly is trained by Ron McAnally, who chiefly earned his way into the Hall of Fame almost three decades ago by training JOHN HENRY, the beloved gelding who won the inaugural running of the Arlington Million in 1981.

In the 1-1/4 mile Secretariat, PADDY O' PRADO, third in the Kentucky Derby and a disappointing sixth in the Preakness, will be heavily favored to beat locally developed turf ace WORKIN FOR HOPS. And why not?  Paddy was a most impressive winner of two major turf stakes at Colonial Downs since the Preakness.    

On the west coast, 3 year old fillies also have a G-1 stakes—the $300,000 Del Mar Oaks, in which EVENING JEWEL will be seeking her third straight after losing slim decisions to Blind Luck that have her connections believing they still have the best American based 3 year old filly in their care.

At Monmouth Park, while the $300,000 Phillip Iselin stakes is only a G-3 event, it will mark an important step forward or backwards for I WANT REVENGE, the 2009 Wood Memorial winner who was scratched from the Kentucky Derby the morning of the race and only returned to competition in the 2010 Suburban Handicap at Belmont Park, on July 3.

The GradeOneRacing.com ‘Performance Note' for that effort, as written by our expert track observer reads as follows:

I WANT REVENGE PERFORMANCE NOTES

Jul 3rd, 2010. . 9^th Bel Suburban-G21-1/8m:

“ Heavily favored for R. Dutrow despite 15 month absence. Stumbled slightly leaving the gate and raced in tight quarters early. Moved up four wide on the turn but was never able to gain on HAYNESFIELD, who was pulling away through the stretch. Did not look good down the lane with short, choppy strides.”

Since that race, our NY based Workout Analyst offered these observations for three of I Want Revenge's key workouts in August.

 I WANT REVENGE. . . WORKOUT REPORT, EXTRACTED IN REVERSE ORDER.

 Aug 5th, 2010 Saratoga: 1:14.45 - Got leg weary through the final eighth and was under urging to finish up; gallop out left a lot to be desired.

 Aug 11th, 2010 Saratoga: 1:11.24 -Was a lot sharper this A.M. and got down to the business at hand right from the outset; fractions, finish and gallop out; all good.

 Aug 17th, 2010 Saratoga: 49.98 - Was just staying busy for trainer Richard Dutrow; finishing well while in hand and continuing on with good energy after the wire.

 From the above clues, I think we can expect a better performance in the Iselin. But if I Want Revenge does not give it, we will know he probably is done.

 May I suggest that subscribers to this web site would be well served checking out our Performance Notes, our Pedigree Reports and our Workout Analysis before they put hard earned cash on the line in the battle of wits we call horse race handicapping?

 I know I am getting the benefit of professionally inspired behind the scenes peeks not available anywhere else.

 SARATOGA NOTES: I could have put this in my blog this week, but I waited until  trackside to share a few quick observations:

 The turf course here has been parched with the lack of rain during the past two weeks and horses on the lead or in close contact with the pace have dominated. At the same time, trainer Linda Rice is winning more than her share of turf races from on and off the pace. Although Rice has no chance to repeat as leading trainer so long as Todd Pletcher keeps sending out his army of well bred runners, she has won 13 races to date and continues to pay above average prices despite a strike rate close to 30 percent. Her two turf winners on Saturday paid 5-1 and 9-1 respectively.

Saratoga Track Report: As expected, the main track has played fair since the heavy rains softened up the 3-1/2 inch cushion during the first week. But if it continues dry, early speed will become increasingly dangerous, as it was on the main track on Saturday. (Some rain is in the forecast for Sunday, Aug. 22.) . .The turf course, parched with the lack of rain for nearly three weeks, (some did fall on Friday night), has strongly accented the value of tactical speed and front running types, although a hotly contested early pace can still bring deep closers into the contest.

In other words the preference for speed on Saratoga's two dry turf courses will only be reversed by rain and/or extreme pace scenarios.

Half way through the Saturday Aug. 21 racing card, I've already seen two horses worth special comment and both should be put in your stable mail: STRIDING AHEAD and CALLIDE VALLEY.

 Striding Ahead, a Juddmonte owned son of Empire Maker out of a Nuryev mare, is being trained carefully by Bill Mott for more than a maiden race win.

 On Aug. 18, as reported by our top notch NY Workout Analyst, Striding Ahead had an exceptional workout in company on the Sar. training track in which he “blew by” the company who had a head start in the team drill and continued on with a solid gallop out.

 Striding Ahead also had an easy trip around the track in the 7 furlong maiden race won by the Pletcher trained first timer CURLINELLO.

 Watch for Striding Out's expected improvement when Mott stretches him out and puts him on the turf.

 The other horse, Callide Valley, won a $25K claiming race for NW3 lifetime by a city block and I was properly claimed, although there was no announcmenet of that fact until the official Equibase Charts came out.  Callide Valley's past performances included a 1-1/16 mile allowance win last fall at Churchill Downs and a 7 furlong maiden win at Saratoga Sept. 5. He also worked well enough at Saratoga during the past month to suggest he had all four legs tied on in their porper place. Fact is, that there are horse ownrs and prospective buyers among our 1200 subscribers who could have had this$100K horse  at a substantial discount.

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The jockey referred to is Cornelio Velazquez, a good rider for several years who seemingly has acquired a habit seen every so often in other good riders, most notably Jose Santos. A decade ago, Santos repeatedly would take horses back into the pack, restraining them so hard in fact that he often left himself with too much to do or a horse who was completely spent from fighting his own rider.

In the August 11 blog under my byline, I cited a report by our professional New York observer who spelled out what he has seen and what it has meant to many horses ridden by Velazquez at the current Saratoga meet.

The Phony Workouts are spelled out in an excellent report filed by GradeOneRacing.com's chief clocker, Bruno DeJulio and MollyJo Rosen who handles our Facebook presence and other community responsibilities.

The report originally was filed on Bruno's website, www.RacingwithBruno.com and provided to this site for specific distribution to GradeOneRacing.com's 1050 current subscribers (an astonishingly high number for a site born just three weeks ago.)

The report, as it should, has attracted the attention of the California Horse Racing Board which has launched an investigation into the particulars in order to straighten out a possible mess that could corrupt  the ability of honest clockers like Bruno from providing the betting public with accurate workout information.

I strongly urge readers of this column to check out the blog reports for this week and read for themselves the background details. In the case of Velazquez, such criticism has been known to wake up a rider to reach his best level of performance and/or to alert horseplayers that the jockey in question is in a self induced slump.

In the case of the missing workouts that are at the core of DeJulio's report, it is good to know that he and we can have a positive impact on things that matter to all of us who pay the freight with our betting dollars.

Comments from readers can be made directly to the Aug. 11 and Aug 12 blogs.

Added note: Congratulations go to Randy Romero for his proper, overdue election into the Hall of Fame at Saratoga this week. Romero may have endured rough times in falls on the track and subsequent injuries and illnesses, but the man who rode Personal Ensign and Go For Wand among many champions, was himself a 24 carat champion jockey who gave 100 percent effort every day he was on horseback.

I also would heartily recommend his inspiring life story, “Randy Romero's Remarkable Ride,” by Bill Heller, Pelican Press, 2010.

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QUALITY ROAD is the 2-5 morning line favorite in the $750,000 Whitney Handicap at Saratoga and ZENYATTA is expected to be 1-9 in the $300,000 Clement Hirsch at Del Mar.

Even at his short odds, Quality Road is meeting a select,  talented group of proven stakes performers that will include the consistent MUSKET MAN, the streaking HAYNESFIELD , 2009 Kentucky Derby winner MINE THAT BIRD and  BLAME, a horse who has won six of his last seven starts.

 Blame, in fact,  is considered by many to be the second best older male racehorse in training—to the aforementioned Quality Road.

Quality Road has freakish talent. He showed that last year winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes and Florida Derby. He showed it again when he returned from a layoff to win the Amsterdam stakes at Saratoga in August 2009 while setting a track record for the 6-1/2 furlong distance.

This year, Quality Road has acted the part of the long range favorite for the Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs, Nov 6. This year he has looked as if he could be headed towards an undefeated season.

The son of Elusive Quality has won all three of his 2010 starts, beginning with a nice score in the Hal's Hope at Gulfstream on January 3. And he subsequently scored two dominating triumphs---in the Donn Handicap on Feb. 8 and Met Mile on May 31. The Met was terrific, but the Donn was out of this world, as Quality Road ran 1-1/8 miles in 1:47-2/5 while earning a sky high Beyer Speed figure of 121.

That is the highest speed figure by any Thoroughbred at any distance this year and less than a handful of horses in the past decade have matched or exceeded it.

All this is why the Saratoga line maker pegged Quality Road at 2-5 in the Whitney.

At Del Mar, 3,000 miles away from Saratoga, the undefeated  6 year old mare Zenyatta may go to the post at 1-20 odds while seeking her 18TH straight victory in the Clement Hirsch.

Zenyatta's competition is nowhere near as strong as Quality Road's. Yet, as a fan who wants to see her remain undefeated all the way to the BC Classic this fall, I can't shake the nagging feeling that it will not be as easy as it looks on paper.

Yes, it is true that our excellent workout analyst, Bruno DeJulio has observed Zenyatta carefully and states flat out that she has looked in great form while training for this race. And the opposition is so weak on paper that no horse in the field other than Zenyatta ever has won a Grade-1 stakes. Only MADE FOR MAGIC has ever won a G-2.

That said, there still are a few issues that must be pointed out.

* Zenyatta has one style of running; it's an exciting style, but a style that goes against the grain of American racing patterns that so often favor horses with front running and/or tactical speed.

 * Zenyatta comes from behind---no, she comes from way behind---often from last place and not until she picks up steam halfway through the final turn.

She rallies despite traffic issues; she dismisses pace issues and she does not seem to care if jockey Mike Smith spots the field four, five or six wide paths away from the rail to fire her big late punch.

 Can Zenyatta be beaten?

 Not on paper, not by using any known handicapping method. But no horse is invincible. Not heavily favored Quality Road or undefeated Zenyatta. In fact, Zenyatta had one of her closest calls in this same stakes last year when the unaccomplished ANABAAS CREATION was in front through the length of the stretch only to fall victim to Zenyatta's relentless late surge.

 Zenyatta's second closest call occurred in her most recent outing, when the very sharp stakes winning filly ST. TRINIANS made a bold run to the lead at the top of the stretch in the Vanity Handicap at Hollywood Park.

 In that exceptionally run race, St. Trinians spurted into the clear while Zenyatta was accelerating at a similar clip into the stretch. Inside the final furlong, while St Trinians  continued to hold a 2-1/2 length lead, Zenyatta suddenly reached into her reserve tank to put in a devastating final burst to win by 1/2 lengths driving clear.

 The dramatic performance reminded me of Zenyatta's Breeders' Cup victory last fall and confirmed my belief that very few horses of either sex could have matched those performances.

 That said, I have this knawing feeling that rubs up against the obvious fact that Zenyatta cannot possibly lose the 2010 Clement Hirsch. . At the root of this feeling is this parallel reality: Zenyatta may run like a machine, but she is not one. Even great racehorses are eligible on any given day to perform well below their usual standards. Moreover, we have witnessed so many wild upsets in virtually every sport, including horse racing.

 The knawing feeling is a realistic one to possess whenever you are faced with a seemingly invincible horse in a seemingly easy spot.  It traces to a gambling credo that will guide you to the cashier's line numerous times while it will help you avoid throwing money away on horses that will not pay for your next meal, never mind your mortgage.  It goes something like this:

 Whenever the public at large believes that a sporting contest is so one sided that the longshot underdog has “no chance” of winning, it is time to look deeper into the contest for a possible upset play.

 Consider the NY Jets beating the sure thing Baltimore Colts as 19 point underdogs in Super Bowl III; or,the amazing Mets doing the same to the Baltimore Orioles.

 Consider Buster Douglas knocking out undefeated Heavyweight Champion Mike Tyson at 30-1 odds. Nobody in their right mind gave Douglas any chance to beat the intimidating Mike Tyson.  The same was true for the young and brash Cassius Clay (Muhammad Ali) when he upset seemingly invincible Sonny Liston.

 In horse racing, we have seen plenty of 1-9 shots get beat. Secretariat lost the 1973 Whitney when he towered over the field, perhaps more than Quality Road and Zenyatta seem to tower over their respective rivals today.

 Just a few weeks ago, RAIL TRIP looked to be a ‘cinch' in the Hollywood Gold Cup and D'FUNNYBONE looked to be a mortal lock in the Carry Back stakes at Calder. Yet both went down to defeat at miniscule odds. Although Quality Road and/or Zenyatta may very well win at short odds, a more certain bet is that we will see several so-called cinches lose before we reach Dec. 31.

 I repeat: Zenyatta may run like a machine, but she definitely is not one. If the lightly regarded sprinter RINTERVALE gets an easy lead in the Hirsch, who is to say that she would not improve five or six lengths in her overall form to suddenly emerge as a serious threat to end Zenyatta's improbable streak?

 Maybe PRINCESS TAYLOR, a front running second in the G-3  Beverly Hills Handicap June 26 at 1-1/4 miles on turf, might assume a good stalking position behind Rintervale and get the jump on the undefeated champion, just as St Trinians did in the Vanity. This time,  at the relatively short 1-1/16 miles distance, it might be difficult for the great mare to overcome such a preemptive strike.

 Personally, I will not bet against Zenyatta. The act would settle in my gut as an act of betrayal. Nor will I bet on her. As stated, avoiding short priced favorites is a principal that every horseplayer should adopt. There are just too many things that can occur during a race to feel that 4-5, or 3-5 or substantially lower is worth the risk.

 Without risking a dime, I will root for Zenyatta to come out of this deceptively easy spot with another victory as her legion of fans at Del Mar and throughout the racing world, marvel at another last to first run to the winner's circle.

 While I might wager a few dollars on Blame to upset Quality Road, if the odds are 4-1 or better; I certainly will not do so with any conviction. And when the dust settles in Southern California sometime near 9:00 PM Saratoga time, my queasy, nervous  feeling about Zenyatta should reach a crescendo or go away.

 Maybe then, I will look up at a TV set in a crowded Saratoga pub to see that this amazing, unbelievable racemare actually has not lost her form without warning and has won still another—this time by a huge margin.

 Zenyatta winning by a huge margin?

 Now, that's something this fabulous racemare never has done either.

My reason for this is linked to the following positive and negative facts about the game we love.

* The racetrack game is the most intellectually challenging, potentially most rewarding gambling game in the world. Fact is, that players in the grandstand and at home using their computers, are every bit as much participants as the horses and jockeys on the track.

* It has always annoyed me that horseplayers rarely are given the credibility they deserve for their appreciation of the racehorse athlete, their understanding of the strategic elements involved in determining a winning performance and their efforts to figure out the many racetrack puzzles we confront every day at every track in America.

* What irks me almost as much, is the way racing officials have persistently downplayed the betting aspect of the game, as if it were poison ivy to be admit that people actually put money on the line to back their opinions. This despite the simple reality that the origin of modern horse racing with rules in place, can be directly traced to 16th Century betting by British cavalry officers and noblemen wagering on which horses could go over softly sloping hills and valleys faster than their rivals.

Queen Ann of England gave out trophies for such horse racing matchups on the undulating lands that later became Epsom ‘Downs’. Through the Civil War here in America, there were numerous documented occasions when Rebels of the Southern armies put down their weapons for an afternoon in a forest clearing to race their fastest steeds against those owned by officers from the North. They did this for prize money; for pride and for wagers made amongst themselves.

Saratoga was built at the end of the Civil War; Churchill Downs was built a few years later. And yes, the same principals of betting one’s opinion against those of another were the cornerstones that financed the construction of these historic venues that still provide forums for our most famous races.

For more than 160 years then, bets have been taken on virtually every race at dozens of American tracks and the smartest, most knowledgeable players have kept notebooks and advanced their chances with their expertise.

* Beyond all that background, it is simple fact that horse racing in the 21st Century is under siege in most states. This is due to self destructive oversaturation of racing dates, to cut throat competition between states for top horses and racing stables; to a negative public image caused by the intrusion of legal and semi legal drugs for racing purposes, and by the resistance of various factions in the sport to jointly solve common problems.

* Yet, at the same time, there has been and continues to be significant growth of handicapping contests in virtually every market.

In 1990, there were very few handicapping contests worth talking about, although the $100,000 World Series of Handicapping at Penn National Racecourse was and remains the best organized handicapping contest with the best rules that I have ever seen.

In 2010, the World Series of Handicapping barely exists with a minimal prize with less accessible rules. But, in its place we have hundreds of handicapping competitions at racetracks and simulcast centers and OTB parlors and Internet outlets worth cumulatively more than $4 million in total prize money.

We have the NTRA/DRF qualifying tournaments for the $1 million finale in Las Vegas each winter and we have the $650,000 Horseplayer’s World Series at the Orleans Racebook and Casino in Vegas at the same time of the year. Both tournaments attract considerable interest and are a testament to the popularity of the concept. Frankly, I believe the growth of these and other competitions can be traced directly to a simple fact: Handicapping contests closely approximate the game’s appeal as it was way back when.

Except for a few esoteric competitions with wild swinging rules---which have their place---the fundamental idea behind most handicapping tournaments is to focus the challenge down to basics:

Pick the race winner and you add to your score.

Pick the most winners and you improve your chance for prize money.

Pick a winning horse or two that outperforms its odds and you leap into contention for all kinds of brass rings.

So why GradeOneRacing.com? Why play handicapping contests here?

Because I see possibilities to offer contests worth serious money every week, not just once a year. I see new formats that are so straightforward that we expect to regularly generate large numbers of participants, much as the poker world has captured its market through a variety of competitions that also play to the basics of that game. While the poker market admittedly is much larger than horse racing, we have not tapped the potential for horse players to buy into handicapping tournaments. Frankly, there are few signs that any track official, any racing organization is even close.

For sure, the four Free Handicapping Contests offered during this, our first summer, do not offer millions in prize money. The payoffs are however, quite reasonable and competitive with many contests sponsored by racetracks and web sites, many of whom enjoy putting them on but really do not see the incredible potential to invigorate the game.

Consider for a few examples these thoughts:

Has there ever been a day at any track when a $1 million prize has been put up to attract dozens of thousands of fans the same way they hope to attract crowds to see a $1 million horse race?

Has any track put a substantial portion of its marketing budget towards handicapping contests?

Are there well thought out live money handicapping contests accessible to more than a few of the wealthiest players?

Those of you who are along for our initial ride will be astounded, I think, by the growth pattern we intend to put into play during the next calendar year. Those of you who play at least one of the three $5K contests through the Saratoga- Del Mar season, automatically will be eligible to play in our $12,500 Breeders’ Cup Contest on Nov. 5 and 6. And those of you who are here now and eventually choose to subscribe to the handicapping content we now offer for free, will always be Charter Members of GradeOneRacing.com and be entitled to free and or discount tickets into subsequent handicapping competitions when the purses will be scaled much, much higher.

Stick around GradeOneRacing.com for our high quality handicapping information; stick around for the tidbits and insights that will help you make better plays and boost your chances in various handicapping competitions, including ours. Stick around as we try our best to take some forward steps in a fast sport that moves way too slowly for its own good.