GradeOneRacing.com's Track Bias Info
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Subscribers Please Note:Here is valuable TRACK BIAS INFORMATION compiled by our Track Observers
GradeOneRacing.com's Track Bias Report
We do not quantify any perceived bias by a number. We believe that a bias has to be strong to be of value in our evaluation of a performance. We therefore use only two degrees of bias:
+ = Moderate, but clearly influential bias.
++ = Dominant, or very strong bias.
We do provide Track Bias notes for different types of races and racing surfaces. Sometimes we will see a "split variant" for sprints vs. routes and/or the first part of a racing card vs. the later races. We also might not see a bias on the main track, while one clearly is in existence on the turf course.
On Dirt or Synthetic Tracks
One Turn Races:
Two lengths criteria for speed, 5 lengths for closers.
First 1/4 mile call used to determine bias.
SPEED-Sp. . . . . + or ++ (In one turn races up to 7 furlongs, the track favored horses on/or within 2-lengths of the lead at the first 1/4 mile call.)
CLOSERS-Sp. . .+ or ++ (In one turn races up to 7 furlongs, it favored horses who were 5-lengths or more behind after the first 1/4 mile call.)
SPEED-M. . . . . . + or ++ (In one turn races from 7-1/2 furlongs to 1-1/8 mi., the track favored horses within 2-lengths of the lead at the 1/2 mile call.)
CLOSERS-M. . . .+ or ++ (The track favored horses who were 5 lengths or more behind the front runners after the 1/2 mile call.)
Two Turn Races:
Three lengths criteria for speed, 5 lengths for closers.
First 1/2 mile call used to determine bias.
SPEED-R. . . . . . + or ++ (The track favored horses on or within three lengths of the lead at the 1/2 mile call in two turn races at one mile or longer.
CLOSERS-R. . . + or ++ (The track favored horses who were more than 5 lengths behind the front runners in two turn races at one mile or longer.
+ = A moderate, but clearly influential bias.
++ = A Dominant, very strong Track Bias.
On TURF ('T')
One Turn Turf Sprints:
Two lengths criteria for speed, 5 lengths for closers.
First 1/4 mile call used to determine bias.
T-SPEED-Sp. . . . + or ++ (In one turn turf races up to 7 furlongs, the course favored horses on/or within 2-lengths of the lead at the 1/4 mile call.)
T-CLOSERS-Sp. .+ or ++ (In one turn turf races up to 7 furlongs, it favored horses who were 5-lengths or more behind after the first 1/4 mile call.)
Two Turn Turf Races:
Three lengths criteria for speed, 5 lengths for closers.
First 1/2 mile call used to determine bias.
T-SPEED-R. . . . . + or ++ (The course favored horses on/or within 3-lengths of the lead at the 1/2 mile call in two turn races, one mile or longer.
T-CLOSERS-R. . .+ or ++ (The course favored horses who were more than 5 lengths behind the front runners in two turn races at one mile or longer.
+ = A moderate, but clearly influential bias.
++ = A Dominant, very strong Track Bias.
In additon to the Bias Ratings and Race Shape included towards the bottom of this valuable section, here are some notes about the respective Track Profiles for the tracks we are covering this winter.
In the spring, we will add Track Profiles for the Aqueduct main track, Keeneland, Churchill Downs, Hollywood, Belmont Park and Monmouth.
Aqueduct Main Track
G1-R's Track Bias Report for Aqueduct
Aqueduct Inner-Track Profile
Once considered a dominant inside-speed track, the inner-track has played more evenly in recent years. The surface is affected by several variables this time of the year, all weather related: temperature, wind and moisture.
Colder temperatures will cause the base of the track to freeze, often producing a fast rail and favoring speed types. It's not uncommon for an early inside/speed-bias to disappear quickly however, as the track can thaw out in clear or widny weather within very few races.
Headwinds on the backstretch also can produce unusually slow early fractions coupled with fast closing fractions that can work against the pacesetters. Keep in mind, six furlong sprints have virtually no run-up. The timer starts as soon as the horses leave the gate, producing slow first quarter clockings. . .An opening quarter-mile in :23 is considered fast on the inner-track at the six furlong distance.
G1-R's Track Bias Report for Aqueduct Inner Track
Belmont Park Track Profile
The 1-1/2 mile Belmont main track is unique in its size. Races up to 1-1/8 miles are run around one turn. Fractions tend to be abnormally fast for races ranging from one mile to 1-1/8 miles due to the long straightaway run up the backstretch. 1-1/4 mile races begin on the clubhouse turn. Five furlong races begin very close to the far turn, a disadvantage to outside post positions. The wide, sweeping turns of the main track are conducive to rally wide types. During wet weather the rail can become very slow and riders will make every effort to keep their mounts four to five paths off the rail.
Belmont Turf Course Profile
There are two turf courses at Belmont. The Widener Turf Course is about 1-5/16 miles with chutes for one mile and 1-1/16 mile races opening on the first turn into the backstretch. The Inner Turf Course is about 1-3/16 miles with 1-1/16 mile races beginning very close to the first turn. Outside posts are at a disadvantage.
The Belmont turf will tend to favor closers during the wet Spring weather, when the grass is long and thick and the ground is fairly soft. As the meet progresses into the hot Summer, speed will become more of a factor as the ground hardens and the grass is worn down.
The Widener Course has been known to get boggy toward the middle of the course during very wet weather. Rally-wide types, normally expected to run well, get caught in the softest part of the track and tend to flatten out in mid-stretch while those horses able to work out inside trips have the best of it.
G1-R's Track Bias Report for Belmont Park
Saratoga Track Profile
The Saratoga main track is 1-1/8 mile oval with a long stretch. 1,144 feet from last turn to finish line provide closers plenty of ground to rally through the straightaway. One-turn races are run at distances up to seven furlongs. Two-turn races are run at 1-1/8 mile and longer. Confirmed milers are faced with the predicament of turning back to a seven furlong sprint or stretching out to nine furlongs.
There will be plenty of wet tracks early in the meet. Hot, humid weather produces afternoon thunder showers as well as heavy overnight rain. Sloppy tracks can tend to benefit speed horses. Riders will typically guide their mounts three or four paths off the rail when the track is wet. As the track begins to dry and changes to "muddy" or "good" racing becomes very unpredictable. Some horses simply won't handle the track at all. Others will do just fine. Any horse who turns in a bad race in the Saratoga mud should be given a pass next out.
Saratoga Turf Course
Two turf courses at Saratoga: The outer Mellon Course is about one mile. The Inner Course is about seven furlongs. Both courses will tend to favor closers early in the meet, when the grass is thick and the ground softened by rain. The latter part of the meet will sometimes see a shift toward speed as the grass is worn thin and the ground firms up with dryer weather.
G1-R's Track Bias Report for Saratoga
Gulfstream Profile
The main track generally has been speed-favoring since it was reconfigured several years ago. With minimally banked turns, it often was difficult for horses to rally outside the 3-path into the stretch.
While Inside-speed was dominant for several years, that trend has changed this year as stalkers who swing three-wide into the stretch have been winning consistently!
The rail is not noticeably dull on most days, but there have been and will be a few such days throughout the meet. But, we believe the outside-stalker phenomenon is related mostly to race shape issues and to the natural tendency of the outside horse to have an advantage over a rail runner pinned inside during the drive to the finish.
Gulfstream Turf Course:
As usual early in the meet, the GP grass course has played fair, with a slight tendency towards horses who can settle into good tactical positions. It can remain that way, or shift radically when the course is run down later in the meet.
Winter generally is the dry season in South Florida, but so many weather shifts have occured in America this year. Lacking rain, the grass will grow very little and in fact be worn down from use. (Gulfstream tries to protect the course by splitting this unnaturally wide course between a course in which the inside rail is set 72 feet away from '0' for many grass races; while setting the inner rail to 12 feet from '0' for many others.
Bottom line? We will watch races carefully to see if speed gets an added boost, or if one of the two courses shows a decided bias, or if either or both courses go through seemingly inexplicable shifts toward stretch running types.
G1-R's Track Bias Report for Gulfstream Park
Churchill Downs Track Profile
The one-mile main track features a mile chute on the backstretch. All races from 4-1/2 furlongs to one mile are run around one turn. The run-up from the starting gate to timer for six furlong races is unusually long, resulting in fast opening 1/4 mile fractions for that distance. Sub-22 opening 1/4 miles at Churchill are common. The main track is usually a consistent surface and tilts a bit toward speed on most days. The track dries out fast after heavy rain and sometimes produces a fast rail while wet or drying.
Churchill Downs Turf Course:
Much like the Keeneland course, the Churchill turf has a more sandy base than most courses. It holds water well without becoming extremely soft, as most turf courses do. Horses tend to love it or hate it, which is why prior success over the course is an important handicapping factor. Horses that handle Keeneland turf tend to do well on the Churchill course.
G1-R's Track Bias Report for Churchill Downs
Keeneland Polytrack
This is a racing surface that can react to the different seasons.
In the Spring, when temperatures are cool to moderate and some rain can be in play, the Poly resists moisture almost as well as its proponents claimed it would. In general, the Poly tends to present a modest bias to horses with tactical speed and some finish. Occassionbally however, especially when the weather is stable, the rail can be golden. Watch for the individual day's Track Bias Reports for insights.
During the fall meet, a lot depends upon the changes if any that Keeneland makes to the course, via added polymers, or more sand, or whatever. A severe inside speed bias has been seen here in some meets and has not been seen at all in others. Again watch our Track Bias report on a daily basis for clues.
Bias trends on the turf course are rare. Typically, proven turf form and or clear cut turf breeding are the keys and there are a handful of jockeys who tend to dominate with their knoweldge of pace and position---Julien Leparoux in particular as well as John R. Velazquez and Ramon Dominguez when they are here. As on most turf courses, saving ground around the first turn usually is an important tactic, while losing ground there often explains a weak finish.
G1-R's Track Bias Report for Keeneland
Hollywood Park
After four months of dirt racing at Santa Anita, racing returns to the synthetic surface at Hollywood Park. The first thing to consider is that recent form over the very fast Santa Anita surface might be irrelevant at Hollywood, where speed types should have less of an advantage on most days. There is also the question of fitness: Will horses trained at Santa Anita be as fit as those stabled at Hollywood during the winter?
Like most synthetic tracks the Hollywood surface is temperature sensitive. It slows down on hot, sunny days and speeds up on cool, cloudy days. The most noticeable speed bias usually occurs during night racing, when front-runners typically dominate and the rail often appears to be the best path.
The main track is 1-1/8 mile oval. One-turn races are run at distances up to 7-1/2 furlongs. In races ranging from 6-1/2f to 7-1/2f outside post positions generally have a distinct advantage from a tactical standpoint. The inside post is most undesirable. 1-1/16 mile route races begin with a short run into the first turn. In these races the inner posts are more desirable. Horses breaking from outer posts tend to get hung wide into the first turn.
As with other synthetic tracks, turf horses tend to run well on the main track.
Hollywood Turf Course
The one-mile turf course features six-furlong races that begin from a chute with a slight left-hand turn into the backstretch. These races tend to favor horses running on or near the lead. In general, speed is important at all turf distances. Closers are dependent upon a strong pace and many turf races in Southern California are stolen by horses galloping through soft fractions with little or no pace pressure. As the meet progresses and the grass gets worn down, the course will resemble a dirt course with some green patches. At that point speed should become more dominant.
G1-R's Track Bias Report for Hollywood Park
Santa Anita Profile:
The new dirt track has been ultra-fast since opening December 26.
The first couple weeks produced multiple track records and the surface has genrally remained speed-favoring. Horses in fact, have been able to set a very fast pace and still hold their leads through the stretch, which is very unusual. The rail also has been good and on some days it has played like a conveyor belt to the winner's circle.
Please Note: Additional sand was added to the track prior to January 20 racing.
Clockings have been tempered slightly but are still very fast and the track remains speed-friendly.
Santa Anita Turf Course:
On the downhill 6-1/2 furlong course that features a slight right handed turn after the first furlong and a patch of dirt that the horses run over entering the stretch, the usual boost to closers has been negated through the first month by an accent towards early speed. With some rain, this may change, but it will bear watching.
Overall, a noticeable speed bias tends to develop on this course in the two turn races at one mile and longer later in the meet. The current "bias" has not been severe enough on most days to merit a clear + or ++ rating, but when a true bias occurs we will report it as such, in the material below.
G1-R's Track Bias Report for Santa Anita
Del Mar Track Profile
The unpredictable synthetic main track at Del Mar is heavily influenced by the ever changing coastal weather. Cool, damp mornings result in a tight, fast surface. Warm, sunny afternoons are responsible for a slower, more tiring track. It's not unusual for horses to work faster in the morning at Del Mar than they race in the afternoon. Morning fog is common and sometimes does not lift until almost noon, resulting in a tighter, faster track for the early afternoon races. An apparent speed bias can disappear quickly, however, after a couple hours of sun on the track.
Friday twilight cards, beginning in late afternoon and running past sunset, can start out with a deeper track and end up with a faster surface as temperatures drop quickly for the last couple races.
If weather fluctuations are not enough to drive a handicapper crazy, throw in the effect of the watering trucks between races. The watering schedule in recent years had been for watering prior to the first and fourth races. More water results in a faster track, meaning there will be little consistency from race to race as the track dries out between races one and three, then gets a second dose of water before race four.
The one-mile main track has a relatively short stretch of only 919 feet, a bit of a disadvantage to deep closers. One-turn sprints are run at distances up to seven furlongs. Two-turn routes are run at one mile and longer. Fractional splits in routes are influenced by the length of run-up from the gate to the start of the timer. One mile races have an unusually long run-up. Opening 1/4 mile splits of :22 and change are common. The mile race, with a 200 foot run-up, is actually close to one mile and seventy yards. The run-up distance varies between the different route distances. Fractional splits for one mile races can not be accurately compared to fractions for 1-1/16 mile races.
Del Mar Turf Course
A typical 7/8 mile turf course with infield chute for 1-1/16 mile and 1-1/8 mile races. Early in the meet the course should play fairly for all running styles. Typically, by mid August the grass is worn down to the point where speed holds an advantage. Front-runners carry their speed further and closing fractions tend to be faster than at Hollywood or Santa Anita. Many superior horses will be beaten because they can't get up in time...partly a result of track bias, partly due to the S. Cal. riders, who are notorious for falling asleep behind a soft pace, leaving their mounts with too much ground to close in the stretch.
G1-R's Track Bias Report for Del Mar
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